Dug this old chestnut out of the open fire (damn near got my hands roasted) because there has been some discussion at various times about whether we need a quality defensive SS this year when we have Zimmerman right next door. This
Dave Cameron piece argues, I think pretty well, that extra defense does not have diminishing returns in terms. A run is still a run, whether prevented or scored, in terms of adding to the likelihood of a win.
Put simply, almost every single ball in play that matters is only catchable by one player. On a line drive to left field, the quality of the defender at second base is completely irrelevant. That the team already has Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson doesn’t matter when the hitter smashes a line drive down the first base line – the only variable on the defensive side is the quality of the first baseman. If he’s lousy, then the play isn’t getting made, regardless of how good his teammates are defensively.
Now, I know there are plays where two defenders converge on the ball, but those balls in play are going to be outs 99.9 percent of the time even if the second guy doesn’t get there. Even the worst defensive teams in baseball turn 65% of their balls in play into outs. Nearly two-thirds of all non-HR contact is fairly routine for the defense, and those plays are going to be outs whether you have Adam Dunn or Endy Chavez playing defense.
The plays that matter, though, where the runs are saved and wins are earned, are on balls that are smoked. Hot shots up the middle, sinking liners in the gap – this is where the difference in defensive ability comes into play, and on nearly all of those types of plays, there is only one guy who has a chance to convert the out. His defensive quality matters, and that’s it.
History has shown this to be true. When you put a good defensive SS next to a good defensive 3B, their individual numbers do not take a significant hit. Ichiro’s UZR did not go down when the Mariners replaced Jeremy Reed with Franklin Gutierrez, despite Death To Flying Things covering more ground than any outfielder in baseball. Adrian Beltre’s UZR didn’t crash when the team went from Yuniesky Betancourt to Ronny Cedeno and then to Jack Wilson. There just aren’t enough plays that matter where two guys both can convert the out for there to be significant diminishing returns in playing quality defenders side by side.
If Desmond is rangy, then I can see how he should have the SS slot and Guz can slide to 2d (apparent Plan A). My preference would be to start him in Syracuse and for the Nats to bring in a cheap good SS glove who can not stink too much defensively, but frankly that ship sailed by the winter meetings. I/M/O, DesGuz it is, and if either flops Willie fills in more than we like at 2d.
