Bullpen 2024 - Maybe this time it really will be a strength?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Laurila has a longish piece about Jordan Weems today on FG.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-well-grounded-jordan-weems-looks-back-at-two-firsts/

talks about his conversion from a catcher to a pitcher, his first big league appearance (K of Trevor Story in 2020), and his first win (last year vs the Mariners).

[welch]

Send Rainey to Harrisburg to recover his arm strength, if possible. Nats would need another relief pitcher, but they don't really have one in Rainey. Maybe try Rutledge as a long reliever. The current guys look OK for an inning or maybe a couple outs into a second inning.

[Slateman]

Rainey throwing 95 and not walking hitters

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rainey throwing 95 and not walking hitters

hitting them, not walking them

[tomterp]

Rainey throwing 95 and not walking hitters

He averaged 97.7 on his four-seamer in 2018 and 2019, and was 96.2 in 2023 before his injury.  He's averaging 93.5 this season. 

[GataNats]

He averaged 97.7 on his four-seamer in 2018 and 2019, and was 96.2 in 2023 before his injury.  He's averaging 93.5 this season.

He is finished.  Wasted roster spot

[Slateman]

He averaged 97.7 on his four-seamer in 2018 and 2019, and was 96.2 in 2023 before his injury.  He's averaging 93.5 this season. 

Up to 95 his last two outings though

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Can anyone find a discussion of a "fix" they did with him over the two weeks he didn't appear in a game? He certainly is throwing harder.

Still should not stop them from DFA'ng him and outrighting him to Rochester if he clear waivers. Maybe there's a team that thinks he's worth a roster spot and seeing if he can get right by September, but I think he's likely to go unclaimed.

[varoadking]

Can anyone find a discussion of a "fix" they did with him over the two weeks he didn't appear in a game? He certainly is throwing harder.

Still should not stop them from DFA'ng him and outrighting him to Rochester if he clear waivers. Maybe there's a team that thinks he's worth a roster spot and seeing if he can get right by September, but I think he's likely to go unclaimed.

The Rays would pick him up and turn him into another Craig Kimbrel of old...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Patrick REddington at Federal Baseball has Davey's comments on Rainey's Sunday appearance, where he had 2 walks and gave up a homer, but was hitting 95:
https://www.federalbaseball.com/2024/5/21/24160693/washington-nationals-news-notes-nats-snap-5-game-skid-with-12-3-win-over-twins-tanner-rainey-project

“He doesn’t have that 97-98 like he used to,” the skipper said earlier in the series with the Phillies, “... so the slider’s a big part of his arsenal right now, and he’s got to use it. He can throw it for strikes, it’s that good.”
...

“I’m still hoping that utilizing his lower half a little better, [the velo will] come up,” Martinez said. “At times we’ll see that 94-95, but we’ve got to get him to understand that, hey, right now it’s not there. It’s more about your pitch selection. It’s more about location. Throwing fastballs right down the middle is not going to work, especially to good hitters.”

“We’re tinkering around a with a little bit of his mechanics,” he explained.

“Trying to get him to stay in his legs a little bit more, the thing is being able to throw strikes consistently. When he’s around the strike zone he does fairly well. When his slider is in the zone, it’s a good pitch for him, so we got to get him ahead, we got to get him to understand that strike one is still his best pitch, you know, and he’s got to attack the strike zone. We’re going to keep working with him and see where we’re at. I’m not going to give up on him. We’re trying to ease his way in, try to put him in situations where hopefully he can start feeling a little better. But he’s a big part of that bullpen, and we’re going to need him.”

[Slateman]

It just looks like a lost year for him. Not everyone has a fantastic bounce back from TJS. He has another year of control after this.

[welch]

It just looks like a lost year for him. Not everyone has a fantastic bounce back from TJS. He has another year of control after this.

Get him to Rochester and have him work up his control and speed. Do it there, where he can work a lot without blowing out a game. The problem, of course: who replaces him? Maybe Rico Garcia? Can Rico be that much worse than Rainey right now?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rainey dfa is a move when Gray is ready, not before.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Should be noted that Dylan Floro gave up a run on April 6, his 4th appearance of the year. 21.2 IP since then. xFIP still says that, with a normal home run rate, he's pitching like a 3.49 ERA pitcher. Advanced stats don't like that he's only K'd 14 guys over that stretch, but are happy with the 3 BBs. FIP likes him too, at 2.25. Don't want to be too negative here. BABIP of .222 is also a bit lucky, but Floro has pretty consistently had a low BABIP every year over the last 5 except last year. In terms of sustainability, the 47.5 GB% is a bit lower than his recent years and career average of > 50%.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

1/3 of the way into the season, and the Nats bullpen is 6th in relief fWAR. ERA is only 12th, but FIP is 6th.

They throw hard but do not get many Ks. 22nd in K/9, but 8th in fastball velocity.

High in BABIP (21st at .295), but lots of ground balls (8th at 45.1%). Not giving up homers when balls are elevated has helped, too (6th at 8.9% HR/FB). 4th lowest FB% suppresses homers as well, and 2nd lowest LD% means there's just not a lot in the air against them. TBH, with any infield defense and the low LD rate, the batting average against (22nd at .240) should be much better.

As much as we think Davey doesn't let his starters go deep, the Nats are actually 7th from the bottom in bullpen innings, making that fWAR compilation even more impressive.

Davey is one of the more active managers when it comes to pulling his relievers mid-inning (4th in MLB). I think that comes in part from not wanting to press guys when they seem off, and in part from his willingness to bring in Harvey and Finnegan to close out innings and come back to start the next. Law and Harvey are two of the primary set up guys for the season, and they have been pulled 48 times. In fact, Law is tied with Hunter Gaddis of Cleveland  for 1st in the majors in pulls at 25, and Harvey is tied for 6th at 23. Top 5 Nats in pulls have been taken out 104 times (floro and Garcia 19, weems who was in 6th/7th inning ahead duty for a while 18).

[rileyn]

Rainey dfa is a move when Gray is ready, not before.

It's tough in the bullpen to play 17 games in 17 days carrying a guy that doesn't pitch. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's tough in the bullpen to play 17 games in 17 days carrying a guy that doesn't pitch. 

Yes.

TBH, they would have been better off keeping MBarnes around for a functioning 8th arm, but I think at that point they thought they could work with Rainey and get him back. It almost seemed like a sentimental call, and I think also that it was kind of a solid for MBarnes to let him try to line up a better situation.

Most of the 40 man pitchers in the minors are starting right now. Willingham is the only healthy bullpen arm on the roster. His ERA is high, but he's had decent K and BB rates as well as GBs. He's been burned by homers on balls that do go in the air. He probably could handle some low leverage allowing JBarnes to take some of the innings going to Law, Floro, and Garcia to give them some rest or, with Floro and maybe Garcia, help Harvey and Finnegan.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'll add that there's room on the 40 man to add a pitcher who is not there currently. It'd be quick to call on Ribalta and it'd be a jump for Schoff. The other option might be Herz, who is on the 40 man and likely will eventually be a reliever, but I think they want to see him still try to get the BBs down to where he could start.