Message #2307443

[nobleisthyname]

Fangraphs has him as their #57 prospect for 2024:

FV: 50

Fastball: 55/55
Slider: 50/55
Curveball: 70/70
Changeup: 55/55
Command: 40/45
Sits/Tops: 94-98 / 102

TL;DR: Cavalli has a huge arm and a good changeup, but also carries a considerable amount of relief risk due to past injury and his violent delivery.

Cavalli climbed the minor league ladder quickly in 2021, starting the season at High-A and closing it out at Triple-A, claiming the distinction of being the hardest thrower at that year’s Futures Game (touching 102 mph) along the way. He notched over 123 innings of work without an IL stint, which was a welcome development considering scouts had some injury concerns surrounding college Cavalli, whose arm action is quite long and whose delivery is pretty violent. Cavalli spent 2022 at Rochester, where he wasn’t as dominant as in 2021 but still pitched well, amassing a 3.25 FIP in just shy of 100 innings. He made his big league debut at the end of August, after which Cavalli was shut down with shoulder inflammation. While shoulder problems can derail a pitcher’s career, Cavalli looked fine during his first couple of 2023 spring training outings, again sitting 96-97 mph with the same powerful mid-80s curveball he began to emphasize more in 2022. He seemed poised to seize an Opening Day rotation spot but Cavalli blew out his UCL in his third spring outing and needed Tommy John, which shelved him for all of 2023. The rate of TJ recovery is encouraging, so Cavalli’s evaluation/valuation is unchanged — he still projects as a mid-rotation starter who is set to return sometime in 2024, having begun to throw bullpens sessions in spring training.

Cavalli’s fastball plays below its velocity, but his curveball is vicious and has ridiculous depth for how hard it is. His changeup also shows bat-missing ability and when it’s combined with the vertical curveball, it gives Cavalli two weapons with which to attack lefties. Pitchers who are built like this and are this powerful and athletic tend to pan out over time, even when they have suboptimal fastball shape, with Sandy Alcantara representing the best recent example. Cavalli’s changeup and slider quality aren’t quite to that level, but at one point, neither were Sandy’s. It’s common for pitchers with arm actions as long as Cavalli’s to re-map their arm path during rehab, so let’s be on the lookout for that when he returns this year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/