I’m not sure since there always seem to be a couple of outliers every year. If two teams have the same records would you really bet on one because they scored ten more runs over a year. Lots of factors go into that. One just might have punted on more games earlier. Or had injuries.
Look at the NL West. Giants have a better record. Dodgers have a better run differential. Who are you putting your actual money on if they play each other. Who would you bet on to win that division?
Look at the NL East. Braves and Nats have similar records, but very different run differentials. Who (before Acuña injury) would you bet on if they played?
