OK, so after the 4 locks, who is #5? Do we make a major trade to line up Gio's successor to have 3 Aces? Do we make a smaller trade or signing to bring in mid-rotation guy? Do we find a bunch of Jacob Turners / Vance Worleys and take the survivor? Or are we content to give Cole and Fedde their shots as the primary in-house arms, just sign some minor league free agent left overs at the end of the spring, and muddle through until either Ross is healthy or we decide we need something better?
This seems thread-worthy, so here it is.
Here's a couple of recent articles from Jorge Castillo on Fedde and Cole.
Fedde:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2017/11/29/what-role-will-top-pitching-prospect-erick-fedde-play-in-the-nationals-2018-plans/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.bf8750fe497cThey called him up for three separate spot starts in the second half. In the third start, his velocity fell into the high 80s as he threw 112 pitches over six innings, a dugout decision that rankled front office decision-makers who had known of some soreness beforehand and warned coaches to be wary.
. . .
As Fedde rose through the Nationals’ system, he became known for 1) a Max Scherzer-esque bulldog demeanor and relentless competitiveness, 2) a sinking fastball with enough on it to play in the majors and 3) a slider that was good enough to get swings and misses. During those three big league starts, Fedde’s fastball sat mostly in the low 90s — just fine, but not quite as advertised. By the third start, he was throwing far more curveballs than sliders, something former pitching coach Mike Maddux suggested he incorporate into his regular arsenal.
In other words, Fedde seemed like a different pitcher when the Nationals last saw him than he did in spring training, when his fastball-slider combination was aided by an in-progress change-up. His fastball lacked the same life. His slider lacked the same bite. Multiple scouts wondered if the irregular workload fostered by Fedde’s brief move to the bullpen (and back again) disrupted his rhythm. After his last start, Fedde pointed out that he had not worked on regular rest in some time and spent much of the last month of his season shuttling between the majors and the minors. In other words, exactly which Fedde would appear if given regular rotation duties next season remains to be seen, but the Nationals will have to decide whether to bet on him.
Cole:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2017/12/06/where-does-a-j-cole-fit-in-the-nationals-plans/?utm_term=.1f99f6b6a6d1While the Nationals were running away with the National League East with little at stake, Cole posted a 3.00 ERA in his final eight appearances (five starts) across 36 innings down the stretch. He finished the season with a 3.81 ERA in 52 innings in the majors — after pitching to a ghastly 5.88 ERA in 18 starts with Class AAA Syracuse.
Cole’s stuff was better (his fastball velocity jumped from 91.8 mph in 2016 to 93.2 mph), but he averaged just 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and his 5.20 FIP suggests he benefited from plenty of luck. Regardless, the strong conclusion placed him in contention for the No. 5 spot next season alongside fellow internal candidate and top pitching prospect Erick Fedde. One other factor boosting Cole’s case: He is out of options, which means the Nationals would have to expose him to waivers if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.
I'm sort of thinking, all things being equal, Cole is given first shot at the 5th slot, Fedde is held in AAA and kept on regular work until needed (injury or failure by Cole), and that several non-roster guys are signed to minor league contracts with spring training invites. 5th starter is as good a place as any to save a few $$$ for a team that is close to the luxury tax thresholds.
