Author Topic: Can we step back from the ledge, please?  (Read 14526 times)

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Offline Gleason2

  • Posts: 785
Re: Can we step back from the ledge, please?
« Reply #75: August 12, 2012, 11:17:49 PM »
This is incorrect.  The odds remain the same each successive game, because past results have no influence on future events.  Take the simple example of a fair coin, and assume it to be flipped so that it lands heads 10 times in a row.  What are the odds of head the 11th toss?  50-50, same as on the first toss.  Baseball is no different.

You assume that each game is an independent event, as a coin flip is, but I would argue that is not true.  Players can get injured in one game that can affect team performance in one or more subsequent games.  The bullpen can be worn out in one or two games and that makes it less likely to be used effectively for the next game or two, etc.