Seems like there is a relationship between the future of LaRoche, Morse, White Whale, and Other for 2013, 2014, and beyond.
The decision on ALR will be decided this offseason. With the mutual option ($10MM / $1MM buyout) for next year likely to be exercised by the team but declined by ALR (even if he wants to come back, he would probably think he can get more than an additional $9MM above his buyout from the team), the team would likely make a qualifying offer of $13MM or so for 2013, expecting ALR to look for a 2 or more year contract for more guaranteed money elsewhere, with the alternative they lock him up at a mutually acceptable deal for 2 years and option, and deeming it acceptable if he took the qualifying offer.
Morse's future is probably dependent on resolving ALR's future. Morse is under contract pretty cheap through 2013. He can defend at first acceptably and can be tolerable in LF as long as his bat is like last year and like how it has been since 6/25. There are red flags about his offense all over the place, but you would expect that over the next 2 months and next year we'd get a good sense of how much of a gamble it would be extending him. My sense is his future contracts will follow the path Carlos Pena and David Ortiz have followed - seven figures but year to year - to compensate for the warning signs. Maybe there is a 2 year deal for him in his future like ALR's 2011 - 2012 (lower AAV but multi year.
White Whale plays into the future of Morse and ALR. Given that the team has gone into every offseason and most trade deadlines looking for a CF, preferably a leadoff CF (thus, the term White Whale), you would think that Rizzo may still be looking to harpoon one this offseason. It is probably less imperative with Morse under contract, Werth still pretty athletic and under contract and Bryce probably only improving in the OF going forward. That said, if ALR is back, Morse as part of a package for a White Whale might make some sense, or, without ALR, you could easily see Morse at first and White Whale roaming the OF.
The identity of the White Whale is not clear. Denard Span and BJ Upton were the names kicked around last year. Span would be a trade target under contract through 2014 with an option for 2015 maxing at $9MM. He fits the lead off profile and is on a team with a need for young cost controlled regulars. Upton is a free agent this offseason. He does not fit the leadoff profile but provides power, speed, and defense. Josh Hamilton is another free agent who can play CF or corner outfield. He will require a huge AAV and multiple years, but is a clear short term upgrade. To throw out one more name from outside the organization, Jacoby Ellsbury has one more year of team control. He'd be the classic White Whale in terms of leadoff and CF defense, with significantly better power than Span. However, he is likely to be in a bidding war next year if he hits free agency. There's a chance he'd be on the trade block if the Red Sox think Kalish could handle CF and could get significant help back for next year and beyond, but given Boston's interest in contending year to year, this isn't likely (IMO). Finally, is the White Whale in house and in Harrisburg and named Brian Goodwin? Not for 2013, but if Morse is not traded for 2013 and ALR is back on a 2 - 3 year contract, Brian Goodwin should figure in the plans sometime in 2014, or perhaps a Destin Hood in a corner and Harper in CF.
Other would be, in no particular order, Tyler Moore, Danny Espinosa, Steve Lombardozzi and the top prospects (Rendon, Goodwin, other OFs). Moore has looked terrific in his role and could conceivably play opposite a lefty bat in either left or 1st were ALR to leave and no White Whale landed. This would be a roll of the dice, especially for a contender, and would weaken the bench.
Espinosa and Lombardozzi could affect the plan for Anthony Rendon if 2B were suddenly open. Espinosa's 2d half and his time filling in at SS makes him even more tempting trade bait for a team looking for a SS (for those of you thinking of Ellsbury, the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts in their system as a high level SS prospect, so it's not clear whether they'd want Espinosa for a couple years until Bogaerts is ready). Were neither Espinosa nor Lombo moved, then the question becomes, does the team perhaps go with some combo of Morse, Moore, Marrero, or maybe ALR fo a year or two and hope Rendon takes over 1B, or does Rendon become trade bait?
There seems to be a logical order for the decisions - first, do we try to retain ALR? If we retain ALR, then is Morse traded for a White Whale or does he keep LF warm until we land the White Whale? If ALR is not retained, how long do we stick with Morse at first? If we trade for a White Whale, who is the bait? Once those questions are resolved, then you slot in Goodwin and Rendon if one or both are not traded and if they develop as projected.
I know - tl;dr, but these questions are all linked. To my mind, the key is the fate of ALR, then the decisions cascade.
