O's come to town for 2 on 5/7 & 8.
Pitching matchupsGame 1
- Corbin Burnes: 41.1 IP, 3-1, 2.61 ERA/ 3.71 FIP, 20.1 (K-BB)%, 1.31 HR/9 15.4% HR/FB, 84.5 LOB%
- Trevor Williams: 31.2 IP, 3-0, 2.27 ERA / 2.90 FIP, 8.1 (K-BB)%, 0 HR, 78.4 LOB% (MLB avg 71.9 LOB%)
Game 2
- Kyle Bradish: 4.2 IP, 0-0, 1.93 ERA / 2.94 FIP,
- Mitchell Parker: 21.1 IP, 2-1, 2.53 ERA / 1.93 FIP, 17.4 (K-BB)%, 0 HR, 73.9 LOB%
it's kind of hard to find flaws in the Os this year. Ryan Mountcastle has had a big year, as has Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser filling in around Henderson and Rutschman. Mullins and Santander have had slower starts, and their line up looks a little tougher against righties than vs lefties. There literally was an article on FG about how they have more good players than positions to play them in the lineup.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-orioles-are-running-out-of-lineup-spots/ Mullins is no longer a full time starter, and lately they've been playing one of their better hitters, Ryan O'Hearn, only against righties.
Burnes has pitched well but is a bit homer prone. Williams has a stellar record, ERA, and FIP, not due to big K:BB ratio (1.83) but instead due to the 0 HRs allowed. Both game 1 pitchers benefit from high strand rates. Bradish is pitching in just his second game. Parker gets the weaker side of the platoons. Like Williams, he's avoided HRs but unlike Williams, he has a 4.75 K:BB.
Both teams have gotten good results from their bullpens.
A split would be a nice result and keep the Nats close to .500 rather than starting to fade against a strong stretch of the schedule. Maybe the Parker match up is slightly better than Williams. Baltimore leads MLB in HRs, so if Williams and / or Parker comes out still with O HRs, that would be give the Nats a shot.
