Premature in season speculation about next year's roster

[Slateman]

4 rotation slots are set, barring injury: Gore Cavalli Gray Corbin. Fedde, if offered arb, I think is #6, with Espino also in relief. 1 slot for a vet, maybe Sanchez, maybe better, to make starts and eat innings. Room for a surprise, too. I think cate henry Carrillo are relievers if healthy, along with Cronin, the guy with the consonants, and Ferrer

They pretty much have to give Strasburg the 5th spot

[catocony]

I don't think Cavalli makes the 26-man out of spring training.  I go with Corbin, Fedde, Gray, Gore  and FA.  The FA could be whoever but a pretty standard #3/#4 guy would be good with the budget they'll probably have.  They're not going to get a top of the rotation FA but he could end up being the top of the Nats rotation.  They'll sign a bunch of reclamation projects to fill out AAA as well. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They pretty much have to give Strasburg the 5th spot

think they can put somebody Stras can push aside in that slot. A Ryan Yarborough, but not that good.  Maybe that's Fedde

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If Thomas plays passable CF like this year, I'm thinking a left handed corner OF might be a decent pick up.  You figure Robles can play CF against lefties with Thomas in a corner (say, right), and against righties, the pick up can play with Thomas in CF.  Robles can come in to CF when we have a lead late, and push Thomas over to the corner.  I don't think Yadi is the guy, but maybe they start doing this with Yadi and Vic effectively platooning.

[Slateman]

If Thomas plays passable CF like this year, I'm thinking a left handed corner OF might be a decent pick up.  You figure Robles can play CF against lefties with Thomas in a corner (say, right), and against righties, the pick up can play with Thomas in CF.  Robles can come in to CF when we have a lead late, and push Thomas over to the corner.  I don't think Yadi is the guy, but maybe they start doing this with Yadi and Vic effectively platooning.

I think Thomas has earned full time reps in RF. Robles can man CF full time. Let Call and Yadi split time in LF, with Call also getting some reps to spell guys. Or they go get a free agent OFer (Conforto, Pollock, Blackmon?)

[welch]

Two years of Conforto?

[Slateman]

Not unless the second year is a player option

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting thought on the value of depth when you lack stars:

This is a fundamental limitation of the way we calculate our odds. Because we use point forecasts, we can’t account for the effect of in-season volatility. Say you have three players at the same position, and your best guess is that each of them has a true talent of 2 WAR/600. Our playoff odds treat that simply: one of them is a starter, one is a backup, and one doesn’t get assigned any playing time. In reality, though, you can give each a tryout. You might think they’re each 2 WAR players, but by getting more in-season information, you can improve your estimate. Players are better or worse than we expect all the time. Having a ton of guys for one spot actually improves the expected production for that spot, because you never know when one of them might pop.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/i-dont-believe-in-the-cleveland-guardians/

The Nats 2023 team is pretty unlikely to get much help from star-level prospects or superstar free agent signees. Even a Cavalli or a Gore would surprise if they showed up and were full season, above average performers.  However, I think it is interesting the point about having multiple guys with average projections.  Some will over-perform, some will under-perform, so having a few guys makes it more likely you can find one who can overperform and make your line up better.

I sort of think this applies most to 3rd base next year.  With Kieboom, Vargas, and Alu, if it is a fair competition, there's a decent chance that ends up beating projections.  Unfortunately, that still may not mean we end up with average play because I'll guess they are all going to be projected as barely better than replacement players. Still, I think making several depth signings and having some legit competition instead of coronations could be a way to improve the roster.

[imref]

Per Dougherty, Doolittle says he wants to pitch for the Nats next year, hoping for a 'doo-over' after this year's debacle.

[welch]

Per Dougherty, Doolittle says he wants to pitch for the Nats next year, hoping for a 'doo-over' after this year's debacle.

So long Cishek and Machado. Espino to the bullpen. Maybe Paolo and another long reliever can be the fifth starter, but then, who is the regular long reliever?

Conforto for one-year deal with an option for a second year. If Conforto hits, he plays a second year.

[Slateman]

So long Cishek and Machado. Espino to the bullpen. Maybe Paolo and another long reliever can be the fifth starter, but then, who is the regular long reliever?

Conforto for one-year deal with an option for a second year. If Conforto hits, he plays a second year.

Any second year option would be a player option. Sign him and flip him at the deadline