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Jim Callis’ top-100 on MLB pipeline:Crews-7Wood-14House-48
i don't get Susana being top-10. I get that he's young, but he showed no ability to pitch at low-A last year and ended up spending the final two months or so of the season on the developmental list. He needs to take a big step forward this year. To be fair to Hassell, he only got a cup of coffee in AA in 2022 but spent most of last year there after coming back from the hamate injury. This is a make-or-break year for him.
You don't expect a guy drafted in the top-10 overall to be failing AA three seasons later. A hamate injury is annoying, but it doesn't screw you up for a full season, especially on the contact front. 161 Ks in 545 PAs while hitting .221 at in AA is a pretty serious issue even at 21, and especially so if you're still iffy to stick in CF.
He's the size of a horse, throws 100, and his numbers weren't bad considering that he was 19 (and still is). The walks and strikeouts both went the wrong direction last year, but he was 19. Also, he's 19. My thing with Hassell is that he was drafted 50-ish picks ahead of another lefty-hitting HS outfielder from Tennessee, was consistently ranked above him as a prospect, and that dude is Evan Carter (and he's younger than Hassell). You don't expect a guy drafted in the top-10 overall to be failing AA three seasons later. A hamate injury is annoying, but it doesn't screw you up for a full season, especially on the contact front. 161 Ks in 545 PAs while hitting .221 at in AA is a pretty serious issue even at 21, and especially so if you're still iffy to stick in CF.
What I don't get is how his K rate got worse. Prior to the trade in '22, he had 66K's in 300+ ABs for the Padres High A team. Then last year he K's 152 times in 414 ABs in Harrisburg. Have to wonder about the coaching staff he's working with.
Double A separates the boys from the men.
Which is why I generally dont care about prospects until they hit Double A.
BBA ranks the Nats’ farm system #15. Down from 7 last year https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-farm-system-talent-rankings/
...and I thought the Nats had a good draft.
this is without graduating anyone significant. Just Irvin and Alu
It includes Cavalli and Rutledge, plus Millas.
I think they area all rookie eligible still.
Cavalli, Rutledge, Millas, and Young are MLB regulars. Remove them, and the minor league organization is thinner.
Crews was already on scouts’ radar as a high school junior for his advanced hit tool and potential for power, but a rough start to his senior year followed by a global pandemic that ended the 2020 season and cut the draft short. Well, he ended up at LSU, and things worked out just fine, as he mashed for three years as a Tiger and ended up the second pick in the 2023 draft. Crews can really hit, going .426/.567/.713 last spring for LSU, then hitting .355/.423/.645 in 14 games in Low A after he signed, although an aggressive two-level promotion to Double A finally slowed him down. His swing is really simple and when he’s on time, it’s short and direct and the contact is loud. He’s an average to a tick above-average runner, but so far he’s looked very good in centerfield thanks to great reads, although he may end up pushed to a corner by a superior defender once he’s in the majors. When he was playing with Double-A Harrisburg, pitchers were able to mess with his timing by changing speeds, even getting him to cut through some fastballs in the upper half of the zone, so there are some adjustments for him to make before he races to the majors. It might slow his progress by a few weeks, but his ceiling as a hitter who’s among the league leaders in all three triple-slash categories while playing up the middle or playing plus defense in a corner is still there.
Wood has turned out to be the jewel in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego. Wood has shown several elite tools already and reached Double A last year at age 20, but also carries some real risks related primarily to the strike zone. Wood is an outstanding athlete with 70 speed and 80 raw power, and if anything he’s improved his conditioning in pro ball to get even more out of his physical gifts. He can play plus defense in center and I’ve gotten occasional run times from him that grade out at 80. He started last year in High-A Wilmington, generally a tough place for power, and hit .293/.392/.580; his eight homers in 42 games ended up second on the team for the season. When the Nats bumped him to Double-A Harrisburg, which is a better home run park, the power stayed but the sheer size of his strike zone and some of his pitch recognition both led to a big jump in his strikeout rate, from 27 percent to 34 percent, with fastballs up and sliders in the lower third both becoming issues for him. He’s every bit of 6-6, maybe even 6-7 at this point, and between his height and how hard he swings, he’s going to have some whiff; the challenge for him and the Nats will be cutting it down to a manageable level so he hits enough to get to that 40-homer power and isn’t an OBP liability. My guess is there isn’t much middle ground here; the ceiling is that middle-of-the-order offense in a plus right fielder or 50/55 centerfielder, while the floor is another guy who can’t cut his K rate below 30 percent and bounces around for years as teams hope to catch lightning in a tall bottle.
House was the Nats’ first-round pick in 2021, then he missed more than half of his first full pro season with a back injury and COVID-19, so this past season was more of a proper debut for the slugging third baseman. He hit .297 or better at three different levels, from Low A to Double A, and struck out less than a quarter of the time on the season as he showed much better offspeed recognition than he had previously. He even flashed some power, with 12 homers in 88 games, although I think the expectation for him is even higher than that. Unfortunately, House is over-aggressive at the plate, swinging first and asking questions later, walking less than 5 percent of the time between High A and Double A, so his batting average, while not empty, was also less than full: he hit .312/.365/.497 on the year. He’s awkward at third base at times because he’s so big, but he’s got plenty of arm and when I’ve seen him he’s made the routine plays. He doesn’t have to become a high-walk guy to be an above-average regular — stay at third and up the in-game power and he’ll get there even with a 5 percent walk rate, because he already hits the ball pretty hard and can get the ball in the air, if sometimes too much. There are a number of paths to success here as long as he can tighten up the pitch recognition.
Cavalli reached the majors at the end of 2022, making one start before hitting the injured list and eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery last March that wiped out his 2023 season. Prior to the injury, he showed size, stuff, athleticism, and the need to work on command and sequencing, things that you hope would come with more repetitions. He’s got easy plus velocity on the fastball and works with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a curveball that has power and depth and moves in a different direction than his other pitches, allowing him to play more with sequencing to change hitters’ eye levels and expectations. He has a solid changeup that he uses primarily against left-handed batters, with almost no platoon split in 2022, and a short slider that’s hard and cutter-like in shape and function. Once he returns at some point this spring, he’ll be working to regain his feel, but also to pound the zone more and work on mixing his pitches more effectively. He still has that mid-rotation, innings-eater upside, assuming anyone even remembers what that means at this point.
Elijah Green and Robert Hassell seemed to have flamed out.
