WP: Nats MASN deal renegotations will have a huge impact

[HalfSmokes]

The Nats won 6-0, the Os can appeal to the SCOTUS but no chance it will be heard.

Here is a link to the text:
https://thenatsreport.com/04/25/2023/allnews/quick-notes-new-york-court-rules-in-favor-of-the-nationals-and-against-the-orioles-in-years-long-masn-financial-dispute/

My best guesses for the next steps after the Supreme Court declines the case:
1) The Os indicated that they are going to sue again, this time in Maryland, to fight to reduce the amount paid to the Nats. It's complicated because the Nats already received profit sharing for the five years in question and those profits will be reduced based on the increased fees. Also with the payments shifted from profits to fees, MLB gets a third of the rights fees, so a third of the $100 million goes to MLB.
2) The Nats will initiate the RSDC hearings for the next two five year resets. The RSN bubble had not yet burst for the second reset, so there should be even more money coming for those years. The latest reset may see a reduction in fees.
3) The injunction preventing the Nats from breaking from MASN due to breach of contract will end so the Nats will demand immediate payment and look for any chance to dissolve the partnership.

Even if MASN sues in MD, the Nats can seek to enforce the NY judgment. MD has no authority over NY courts, the most they can do is shield assets in MD, even then the constitution would be more than a little barrier. I’m hoping for the hilarity of the nats have NYC seize MASN camera equity and auction it ever time the Os or Nats play in NYC - if only the nats would be that petty

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The Nats won 6-0, the Os can appeal to the SCOTUS but no chance it will be heard.

Here is a link to the text:
https://thenatsreport.com/04/25/2023/allnews/quick-notes-new-york-court-rules-in-favor-of-the-nationals-and-against-the-orioles-in-years-long-masn-financial-dispute/

My best guesses for the next steps after the Supreme Court declines the case:
1) The Os indicated that they are going to sue again, this time in Maryland, to fight to reduce the amount paid to the Nats. It's complicated because the Nats already received profit sharing for the five years in question and those profits will be reduced based on the increased fees. Also with the payments shifted from profits to fees, MLB gets a third of the rights fees, so a third of the $100 million goes to MLB.
2) The Nats will initiate the RSDC hearings for the next two five year resets. The RSN bubble had not yet burst for the second reset, so there should be even more money coming for those years. The latest reset may see a reduction in fees.
3) The injunction preventing the Nats from breaking from MASN due to breach of contract will end so the Nats will demand immediate payment and look for any chance to dissolve the partnership.

This seems right, but it is straight accounting and mathematics after you know the top line amount owed in fees. The right thing for the Nats is to do the math and make a demand.  Leonsis perhaps could play too and buy MASN or the rights to both teams for Monumental. That's a ton of broadcasting rights when coupled with the Wiz and Caps.  It'd make the block look more like YES or NESN, just with lesser properties. Could pick up Patriot and Colonial broadcast rights, too.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

WaPo's 1st take:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/25/court-confirms-market-value-nationals-rights-masn-case/

[Natsinpwc]

This seems right, but it is straight accounting and mathematics after you know the top line amount owed in fees. The right thing for the Nats is to do the math and make a demand.  Leonsis perhaps could play too and buy MASN or the rights to both teams for Monumental. That's a ton of broadcasting rights when coupled with the Wiz and Caps.  It'd make the block look more like YES or NESN, just with lesser properties. Could pick up Patriot and Colonial broadcast rights, too.

Would like to see Leonsis buy the Orioles and settle this dispute.

[HalfSmokes]

Would like to see Leonsis buy the Orioles and settle this dispute.

His best move is buying the Os and having monumental air MASN games. No need to buy the Nats

[Natsinpwc]

His best move is buying the Os and having monumental air MASN games. No need to buy the Nats

Yes please.
He could buy them with a framework for a tv deal already worked out with the Lerners.

[Kevrock]

3) The injunction preventing the Nats from breaking from MASN due to breach of contract will end so the Nats will demand immediate payment and look for any chance to dissolve the partnership.

When does that end?

[PowerBoater69]

When does that end?

I'm pretty sure it ends the moment that either the deadline to appeal ends or more likely when the Supreme Court declines to hear the appeal. But the Os are almost certainly preparing another case to try to block the Nats from breaking off from the deal.

At least the goal posts have been moved, it is no longer a question of whether MASN owes the Nats increased fees they are now deciding how much.

[PowerBoater69]

This seems right, but it is straight accounting and mathematics after you know the top line amount owed in fees. The right thing for the Nats is to do the math and make a demand.   

I'm sure that is what the Nats are going to do, which is what they did years ago after they won the case, prior to all the appeals. The Os are going to do everything they can to muddy the waters. John Angelos is paying himself a huge salary from MASN (this came out in the lawsuit filed by his brother), the higher rights fees could but MASN into the red, which would leave them with no profits to share.

[Senatorswin]

The WAPO article said they now have to go back to determine what the fees are. I thought the latest hearing was to determine if the MLB panel had the right to determine the fees and didn't have anything to do with the fees that they awarded. It sounds like I was wrong. Did I read the WAPO article wrong?

[nfotiu]

His best move is buying the Os and having monumental air MASN games. No need to buy the Nats

It's tough to see how that could actually play out.   MASN revenues are still likely in the 150 million/year range.   Adding the Nats and Os games to monumental isn't worth nearly that much as providers aren't too interested in negotiating higher fees these days.   Taking over MASN and keeping their carriage agreements is worth far more money.   

Some kind of standalone streaming service with all teams is worth something, but a service like that probably can only generate 10-20 million per year and that is probably optimistic.   The standalone streaming service also puts the over 200 million MASN and Monument are making in carriage fees at risk.   

It's tough to see the math working out here.

[Natsinpwc]

Every time this comes up I feel like I need someone to prepare a PowerPoint presentation recapping the history and main issues. I guess it’s to painful to remember for me.

[nfotiu]

The WAPO article said they now have to go back to determine what the fees are. I thought the latest hearing was to determine if the MLB panel had the right to determine the fees and didn't have anything to do with the fees that they awarded. It sounds like I was wrong. Did I read the WAPO article wrong?

I believe the fees that they are referring to are interest and penalties for this dragging on.

[Senatorswin]

I believe the fees that they are referring to are interest and penalties for this dragging on.

Thanks.

[Senatorswin]

I believe the fees that they are referring to are interest and penalties for this dragging on.

So once a decision is made on the interest and penalties can the Orioles appeal that for the next couple of years?

[Slateman]

Not sure why we care about this anymore. Money will go into the Lerners' pockets and they'll go out the door. None is getting invested in the team.

[nfotiu]

Not sure why we care about this anymore. Money will go into the Lerners' pockets and they'll go out the door. None is getting invested in the team.

A resolution is important so they can sell the team.   They are a lame duck team until sold, and this is the first domino we are waiting for.

I really wish the mlb would have made good on Selig's promise:

After the RSDC issued its determination, Selig reiterated to both teams that the
settlement agreement did not authorize them “to file any lawsuit” and that the MLB
constitution “expressly prohibited” litigation in court. Selig cautioned both teams that “if
any party initiate[d] any lawsuit,” he would “not hesitate to impose the strongest sanctions
available” under MLB’s constitution.

This litigation is not in good faith, and mlb should have stepped in.   The decision was actually closer to what the O's wanted vs the Nat's number, and I can't imagine any panel determining a number that was more than a million or two/year different.

[PowerBoater69]

The WAPO article said they now have to go back to determine what the fees are. I thought the latest hearing was to determine if the MLB panel had the right to determine the fees and didn't have anything to do with the fees that they awarded. It sounds like I was wrong. Did I read the WAPO article wrong?

I didn't read the post article but the fees owed to the Nats are about $20 million per year for 2012-2016, minus one third that goes to MLB for revenue sharing, minus profits already paid to the Nats that are now lower because the fees are higher. The bigger payday will be for the second reset from 2017-2021, when MLB does the next round of rights determination. MASN stopped all profit sharing a while back so once those fees are set the Nats will be owed both fees and profits (which will be minimal).

I don't think the Nats will see anying as far as interest or lawyers fees for to cover court costs.

[PowerBoater69]

This litigation is not in good faith, and mlb should have stepped in.   

How could MLB step in when the case was in the jurisdiction of the court? Now that the case is about over Manfred can determine if he has the desire to punish the Os for suing another MLB club, which was promised by Selig over a decade ago.

[HalfSmokes]

I didn't read the post article but the fees owed to the Nats are about $20 million per year for 2012-2016, minus one third that goes to MLB for revenue sharing, minus profits already paid to the Nats that are now lower because the fees are higher. The bigger payday will be for the second reset from 2017-2021, when MLB does the next round of rights determination. MASN stopped all profit sharing a while back so once those fees are set the Nats will be owed both fees and profits (which will be minimal).

I don't think the Nats will see anying as far as interest or lawyers fees for to cover court costs.

Post judgment interest is going to be a nag too. 9% per year through 2021 and the 2% per year from 22-23 in New York

[Slateman]

A resolution is important so they can sell the team.   They are a lame duck team until sold, and this is the first domino we are waiting for.

I really wish the mlb would have made good on Selig's promise:
This litigation is not in good faith, and mlb should have stepped in.   The decision was actually closer to what the O's wanted vs the Nat's number, and I can't imagine any panel determining a number that was more than a million or two/year different.

This doesnt resolve the rights issue. Angelos still owns the majority of the rights to Nationals TV games.

This wasnt holding up the sale. The Leonsis group offered over 2 billion. The Mets sold for 2.4 billion in 2019. The Lerners are simply holding out for more money.

[IanRubbish]

Even if MASN sues in MD, the Nats can seek to enforce the NY judgment. MD has no authority over NY courts, the most they can do is shield assets in MD, even then the constitution would be more than a little barrier. I’m hoping for the hilarity of the nats have NYC seize MASN camera equity and auction it ever time the Os or Nats play in NYC - if only the nats would be that petty

Would love to see them do that.  This garbage attempt by Selig to appease Angelos has gone on long enough. 

[Natsinpwc]

How could MLB step in when the case was in the jurisdiction of the court? Now that the case is about over Manfred can determine if he has the desire to punish the Os for suing another MLB club, which was promised by Selig over a decade ago.

They could step in and try and negotiate a settlement.  Perhaps they did to no an avail but Manfred seems weak. The Nats were cruising also with great records so they didn’t see a reason before. But now both franchises are struggling and trying to sell.

[Natsinpwc]

This doesnt resolve the rights issue. Angelos still owns the majority of the rights to Nationals TV games.

This wasnt holding up the sale. The Leonsis group offered over 2 billion. The Mets sold for 2.4 billion in 2019. The Lerners are simply holding out for more money.

I would bet my bottom dollar that the $2 billion was contingent upon resolution of the MASN situation. In any event neither of us knows for sure. Time will tell.

[nfotiu]

I would bet my bottom dollar that the $2 billion was contingent upon resolution of the MASN situation. In any event neither of us knows for sure. Time will tell.

Even if it wasn't directly contingent, I'd guess that the Lerners think they can get a better offer if it is resolved.