Nationals visit the Miami Fish Palace - Series Review & Preview

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Mercifully, no pix of the park inside.

Game 1: Nats FG odds 38.5%
 - Trevor Williams (RHP, 21.2 IP, 2-0, 2.91 ERA / 2.31 FIP, 0 HR allowed, 0.97 WHIP)
 - Anthony Maldonado (OP) (RHP - 1st appearance)
Game 2: Nats FG odds 39.6%
 - Mitchell Parker (LHP, 12 IP, 1.50 ERA / 1.14 FIP, no HR or BB, 27.9 K%)
 - Edward Cabrera (RHP, 11 IP, 1-0, 3.27 ERA / 1.14 FIP, 27.7 K-BB% )
Game 3: Nats FG odds 40.5%
 - Patrick Corbin (LHP, 27.2 IP, 6.51 ERA / 4.44 FIP, 1.81 WHIP, 14.3 K%)
 - Ryan Weathers (LHP, 25.2 IP, 2-2, 3.16 ERA / 4.62 FIP, 11% HR/fb)
Game 4: Nats FG odds 40.4%
 - Jake Irvin (RHP, 27.2 IP, 1-2, 4.55 ERA / 3.18 FIP, 3.29 K/BB)
 - Trevor Rogers (LHP, 26.1 IP, 0-3, 4.10 ERA / 2.84 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 52 GB%, 0.34 HR/9)

don't get too upset at the FG odds. Those are based on preseason projected strength of the teams and players that slowly adjust to reflect games played. Based on that, Williams hot start isn't reflected, Parker is a minor leaguer, etc...

Parker v Cabrera might be the most interesting pitching matchup. Cabrera was a fringe to 100 prospect, and that K-BB% reflects his healthy and terrific start. A 50 FV prospect with a strong fastball / slider combo and a change up that could be average.

These are two of the worst offenses in baseball. We're 28th in runs scored, the Fish are 26th. By wRC+, the Nats are a bit better (22d, 90),while Miami is 29th (67).

Corbin in his prime (2018-19) had around double his current K%.

[imref]

Maybe we score some runs this weekend?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Game 1 is kind of key? most favorable pitching matchup, especially if Maldonado's slider is not on. Also, I think another good start from Williams would be helpful if we are shopping him early in the season.

On paper, Corbin vs Weathers should be the highest scoring.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Problem with a bullpen game is it only takes one to put you in a hole. I sound like Smoltz on this, but that's what did in the Marlins tonight. Great start from the opener in his first MLB game, shutout from the second guy, but they got to Nardi a  bit before he was bailed out by a DP, then they roasted Faucher. So the Nats didn't blow their best match up despite being shut down the first 5 innings by two guys who are starting only because of injuries.

[GataNats]

Problem with a bullpen game is it only takes one to put you in a hole. I sound like Smoltz on this, but that's what did in the Marlins tonight. Great start from the opener in his first MLB game, shutout from the second guy, but they got to Nardi a  bit before he was bailed out by a DP, then they roasted Faucher. So the Nats didn't blow their best match up despite being shut down the first 5 innings by two guys who are starting only because of injuries.

Well, we used both Harvey and Finny.   Nothing really gained

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, we used both Harvey and Finny.   Nothing really gained

we used the bullpen pretty much as designed and rested Weems. That's a plus

[nobleisthyname]

Harvey threw like 10 pitches. Finnegan only threw 6. They should be usable again if needed.

[Natsinpwc]

Harvey threw like 10 pitches. Finnegan only threw 6. They should be usable again if needed.

Yes. If they pitch today then not tomorrow. Losing the series to LA gave them some rest.

[NatsLSU]

Oh man we are so back if we can start beating the Marlins again. 

[aspenbubba]

Well. we survived another horrendous start of the worthless POS and I just don't know how long the FO will keep trotting him out there no matter what his contract dictates. I'm not sure whether to attribute this win to our offence or a woefully bad Marlins team. If we win tomorrow we will be at .500 and I have no clue other than taking a wild  guess that the last time we were at .500 was June , 2021.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not wanting to put the cart too far before the horse, but the Nats have a shot at reaching .500 28 games into the season should they win game 4 of this series. The last time the Nats were .500 or better after 28 games was . . .

2017.

Remember, 2019 had the 19-31 start, while 2018 didn't pick up the 14th win until game 30.

In 2021, after going 1-0 on opening day and losing the second game, we did not reach .500 again until June 28. We peaked at 2 games over .500 on June 30, fell below .500 on July 3, then tumbled out of division and WC contention with a horrible month culminating in the sell every vet deals at the deadline.

[aspenbubba]

Not wanting to put the cart too far before the horse, but the Nats have a shot at reaching .500 28 games into the season should they win game 4 of this series.



In 2021, after going 1-0 on opening day and losing the second game, we did not reach .500 again until June 28. We peaked at 2 games over .500 on June 30, fell below .500 on July 3, then tumbled out of division and WC contention with a horrible month culminating in the sell every vet deals at the deadline.

Thank you. It’s been awhile and I hope I didn’t jinx the team. I felt we would win 3 of 4 with us losing today. It would be great  to sweep the fish after the past 2 years record.
















V

[imref]

If Irvin bounces back from his last start we're in good shape. If not, we'll just need to score double-digit runs again.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

By the way, the last time Corbin had a sustained effective stretch was 4/15/2021 through 6/30 that year. As much as the injuries to Schwarber and Stras, it was Corbin's blowup in July that doomed that team