Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager

[JCA-CrystalCity]

That would be correct. In his younger days, he was a very good fielding RFer with a cannon for an arm.

But he's 32 and fragile now. So they DH him a lot. And I dont see him getting more time in the field as he progresses

slightly OT, but the guy I think the Big Outfield is tougher on is Judge in center.  But hey, they may let him walk   How about Soto for Judge?

[van lingle mungo]

So I'm watching the game on Monday night and Soto flies out to left center. MASN runs a super slo-mo replay just as Frandsen gets all excited and starts babbling about how great the swing was and some other crap about him going the opposite way. Anyone who isn't blind could clearly see that Soto's front hip was pointing at first base at moment he made contact. Maybe Frandsen wasn't looking at his monitor intently enough, I dunno, and I don't really care. Point being that if you're going to hit a pitched ball with any authority it helps if you keep your front half closed.

[Smithian]

He's good. Streaky. But good.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

this is kind of off the wall, but, given the lack of a real leadoff hitter on this team and the profile of their best batters, I'm thinking that Soto maybe should be pulling a Schwarber and leading off.  Slot him leadoff, Bell second, and Cruz 4th, with either Garcia or Ruiz #3 and #5.  SABR lineups emphasize 1, 2 & 4 for your best hitters, with 3 & 5 as your next best.  Ruiz hasn't shown Garcia's pop, but is far less strikeout prone (10% of PAs vs. 20%) , and walks a bit (8% of PAs).  I kind of like Garcia's average at #3. Average drives in runs more than BBs. #3 comes up a lot with 2 outs, so a 2 out walk is less valuable than a 2 out hit (a hit can be for extra bases).

So, were I experimenting a bit, I might go:

Soto
Bell
Garcia
Cruz
Ruiz
Yadi/Thomas
Franco
Cesar
Robles

Robles actually has a higher OBP than Cesar the past couple of months.

[PowerBoater69]

this is kind of off the wall, but, given the lack of a real leadoff hitter on this team and the profile of their best batters, I'm thinking that Soto maybe should be pulling a Schwarber and leading off.   

Schwarber had the worst HR to RBI ratio of anyone in the league at the point where he got hurt last season. Martinez was hailed as a genius for the move.

[MorseTheHorse]

I like the idea of Soto batting leadoff.  Especially if it makes him happy.  I expect he'd like to be pitched to more. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Schwarber had the worst HR to RBI ratio of anyone in the league at the point where he got hurt last season. Martinez was hailed as a genius for the move.

(Image removed from quote.)

sure, he hit something like 8 solo leadoff homers in the 15-20 games he was leadoff. He also hit .500 and scored a ton of runs otherwise. Can double check that on baseball reference, which I looked at last night. They had a hot Bell, Soto, Turner, Zimmerman, and Gomes in the lineup too. You can argue Turner leadoff or second, but you can't argue it wasn't productive. 

With the current lineup, hitting a guy with a lower OBP than Robles leadoff is not setting up the hitters behind him to knock in runs. You might get more solos out of Soto, but but you'll get many more man on no outs than hitting anyone else leadoff.

[PowerBoater69]

sure, he hit something like 8 solo leadoff homers in the 15-20 games he was leadoff. He also hit .500 and scored a ton of runs otherwise. Can double check that on baseball reference, which I looked at last night. They had a hot Bell, Soto, Turner, Zimmerman, and Gomes in the lineup too. You can argue Turner leadoff or second, but you can't argue it wasn't productive. 

With the current lineup, hitting a guy with a lower OBP than Robles leadoff is not setting up the hitters behind him to knock in runs. You might get more solos out of Soto, but but you'll get many more man on no outs than hitting anyone else leadoff.

This is a last place team no matter how we line them up, but I just don't see Soto at lead-off. The Schwarber move was "productive" if you think that he would not have hit all those HRs batting 2nd or 3rd. If the HR total is the same he'd have had several more RBIs added to his total.

[Natsinpwc]

I thought none of the analytic measures such as WAR and wRC pay any attention to RBIs. Or in other words hasn’t that been proven to be a meaningless stat?  I’ve always liked RBIs but I am old.

[PowerBoater69]

I thought none of the analytic measures such as WAR and wRC pay any attention to RBIs. Or in other words hasn’t that been proven to be a meaningless stat?  I’ve always liked RBIs but I am old.

Interesting question, from an individual player standpoint maybe RBI is not a good measure, but for the team if Player A is going to have a .900 OPS and that is constant regardless of position in the lineup, I'd rather have the higher RBI number.

[Natsinpwc]

Interesting question, from an individual player standpoint maybe RBI is not a good measure, but for the team if Player A is going to have a .900 OPS and that is constant regardless of position in the lineup, I'd rather have the higher RBI number.

Seems like you want the higher OBP in front of the lineup and the higher slugging percentage right after that to knock in the runs. 

[Natsinpwc]

I guess this is along the lines of what I have read about RBIs.

https://library.fangraphs.com/stats-to-avoid-runs-batted-in-rbi/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting question, from an individual player standpoint maybe RBI is not a good measure, but for the team if Player A is going to have a .900 OPS and that is constant regardless of position in the lineup, I'd rather have the higher RBI number.

It's really remarkable how much high OBP from your leadoff hitter factors into the model batting order research. I recall back in the bad old days that many of the optimal lineups had Dunn leading off.

[PowerBoater69]

It's really remarkable how much high OBP from your leadoff hitter factors into the model batting order research. I recall back in the bad old days that many of the optimal lineups had Dunn leading off.

Dunn was such a fun guy to watch, he's a Reds guy but it sure would be nice for him to make an appearance back at Nats Park.

[imref]

Dunn was such a fun guy to watch, he's a Reds guy but it sure would be nice for him to make an appearance back at Nats Park.

I was surprised that he and Willingham weren’t there for the Zimmerman ceremony.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So was last night in the 9th an intentional BB with the bases loaded, or just a pitch around?