Wild Card watch

[rileyn]

At this rate, the Braves have a better chance at catching the Dodgers (4.5 GB) than we do catching the Braves (5.5 GB).

If we end up a WC team and get past the WC game, we could actually end up facing Atlanta in a NLDS.

Interesting.  Good catch.

[djbaseball13]

At this rate, the Braves have a better chance at catching the Dodgers (4.5 GB) than we do catching the Braves (5.5 GB).

If we end up a WC team and get past the WC game, we could actually end up facing Atlanta in a NLDS.

We're only 4 back in the loss column, and we play them 7 times.

[Mathguy]

But the probability of picking up 5 or 6 games is 7/128 or approximately 5%

We're only 4 back in the loss column, and we play them 7 times.

[tenken627]

We're only 4 back in the loss column, and we play them 7 times.

Of course no one is conceding the division just yet as long as there is a chance (albeit a small one). The comment was more on how the almighty Dodgers aren't the surefire lock they used to be as the top seed in the NL with their play these days.

[nfotiu]

I think us vs the dodgers comes down to who has the healthiest pitchers

[djbaseball13]

But the probability of picking up 5 or 6 games is 7/128 or approximately 5%

ok, I'll take 20-1 odds.. Can you cover $100?

[bluestreak]

But the probability of picking up 5 or 6 games is 7/128 or approximately 5%

How in the world is that calculated?

[Mathguy]

Assume the probability of the Nats beating the Barves in each game is 50%.  With 7 games to go and 5.5 games behind, the Nats have to win 6 or 7 games to overcome the Barves.  Using the binomial probability formula, the probability of winning 7 games is (1/2)**7, which is 1/128.  The probability of winning 6 of 7 games is 7 * (1/2)**7, which is 7/128.  So the probability is 8/128, which equals 1/16 = .0625

How in the world is that calculated?

[tenken627]

Assume the probability of the Nats beating the Barves in each game is 50%.  With 7 games to go and 5.5 games behind, the Nats have to win 6 or 7 games to overcome the Barves.  Using the binomial probability formula, the probability of winning 7 games is (1/2)**7, which is 1/128.  The probability of winning 6 of 7 games is 7 * (1/2)**7, which is 7/128.  So the probability is 8/128, which equals 1/16 = .0625

But isn't that the odds of catching the Braves if the Nats only played the Braves in 7 games and only those 7 games and not 28 (at this time) games for all of September?

[bluestreak]

But isn't that the odds of catching the Braves if the Nats only played the Braves in 7 games and only those 7 games and not 30 games for all of September?

And I don’t believe those games to all be 50/50 propositions. I think the 10-20 percent listed in the forecasts sounds about right.

[Mathguy]

Yes - the 5.5 games can be made up in different ways.  But the discussion was on catching the Barves by beating them in the 7 games

But isn't that the odds of catching the Braves if the Nats only played the Braves in 7 games and only those 7 games and not 30 games for all of September?

[tenken627]

Yes - the 5.5 games can be made up in different ways.  But the discussion was on catching the Barves by beating them in the 7 games

Ah gotcha

[bluestreak]

FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Playoff Odds: 98.6%  Division Odds: 11.7%  World Series Odds: 6.4% Projected Record: 92-70

FiveThirtyEight: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Playoff Odds: 98%  Division Odds: 13%. World Series Odds: 8%  Projected Record: 92-70

Baseball Prospectus: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
Playoff Odds: 97.0% Division Odds: 9.8% World Series Odds: 5.2%  Projected Record: 91-71

[djbaseball13]

Yes - the 5.5 games can be made up in different ways.  But the discussion was on catching the Barves by beating them in the 7 games

But the better team should win the division. Even if we win 4 (of 7) that still gives us a chance to win the division. The problem is that the Braves are just as hot as we are.  If The Braves play .800 baseball in Sept then we may just have to tip our hat to them and take the WC. The path to the WS is easier by winning the division, so I want any advantage we can get.

[Air Desmond]

There’s magic in this team. They will host the wildcard game on October 1st. It will be a glorious evening. This team has what it takes to conquer the demons of October’s past.

[Natsinpwc]

I was looking up the KBO baseball playoff format in case we are able to catch a game while there. Interesting. Five teams make it and then.  5 plays 4. 4 team only needs to win one game while the 5 team needs to beat the 4 team twice. I think that’s kind of cool. After that it becomes a best of thing with a ladder.  First place team doesn’t need to play until the last round.

[bluestreak]

I like this format a lot. Make it a doubleheader. It was talked about last year when people were worried about the Yankees losing in the Wild Card Game.

I believe that a winner take all game in baseball is dumb.

[tenken627]

I was looking up the KBO baseball playoff format in case we are able to catch a game while there. Interesting. Five teams make it and then.  5 plays 4. 4 team only needs to win one game while the 5 team needs to beat the 4 team twice. I think that’s kind of cool. After that it becomes a best of thing with a ladder.  First place team doesn’t need to play until the last round.

You are taking a trip to Korea? Nice.

Right now is the perfect time of year to go.

[Natsinpwc]

You are taking a trip to Korea? Nice.

Right now is the perfect time of year to go.

Going Japan first. For a week. Then Korea.

[Slateman]

Kimbrel back to the IL

[rileyn]

Where did the Diamondbacks come from? 

[Scrapple]

There’s magic in this team. They will host the wildcard game on October 1st. It will be a glorious evening. This team has what it takes to conquer the demons of October’s past.

I think you’re right but I’ve been worried about this 13 game stretch (now 12) since way before the All-Star Game. If we can’t win at least 6 of these 13 games, it might be best we don’t go to the Playoffs.
Hopefully we can at least split the next 12 games so we can feel good about beating some good clubs while getting battle tested and ready for the Playoffs. If we lose 9 or more of the next 12 games, you can bet there’s gonna be some sphincter muscles gettin’ very tight around here.

   

Let’s go Naaaaaaaaats!!! Let’s go Naaaaaaaaats!!! Let’s go Naaaaaaaaats!!!

[expos1994]

The wild card should be a 2 day event. Game 1 on Day 1. Then a double header on Day 2. All taking place at the top wildcard team's home stadium. If the winning team from Day 1 wins again, no need to play Game 3.

So dumb that a team can play a full 162 game schedule, make the playoffs, and then be out in 1 game.

This change would be an awesome way to start the playoffs.

Another idea would be to hold it at a neutral site... the top team would be the home team for all games, but it would be less of an advantage.

[djbaseball13]

The wild card should be a 2 day event. Game 1 on Day 1. Then a double header on Day 2. All taking place at the top wildcard team's home stadium. If the winning team from Day 1 wins again, no need to play Game 3.

So dumb that a team can play a full 162 game schedule, make the playoffs, and then be out in 1 game.

This change would be an awesome way to start the playoffs.

Another idea would be to hold it at a neutral site... the top team would be the home team for all games, but it would be less of an advantage.

I like it the way it is. Remember that it used to be only division winners.

[Natsinpwc]

I like it the way it is. Remember that it used to be only division winners.

Not when there were three divisions. There was always one wild card from that time.