POLL: UPDATED: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....

[Greg_SRT]

i don't buy the argument that harper is holding up anyone else. you can maybe argue that Kuechel could get offers from the phillies should they miss out on harper, but most of the other guys have their own problems

Yep. If they are waiting for Harper it’s on them.

Many of them haven’t found the deal they want same as Harper. They want long term deals and the market isn’t giving out long term deals.

[HalfSmokes]

https://www.phillyvoice.com/live-mlb-rumors-free-agency-updates-phillies-bryce-harper-giants-dodgers-updates-latest-news-craig-kimbrel-7274/

I don't understand why there isn't general outrage at Harper's arrogance and selfishness.  Around 60 players, unsigned because he refuses to make up his mind. Anyone else outraged?

Look at the list of unsigned- there are a lot of league minimum and st invite guys there- that has nothing to do with harper

[nfotiu]

i don't buy the argument that harper is holding up anyone else. you can maybe argue that Kuechel could get offers from the phillies should they miss out on harper, but most of the other guys have their own problems

Not only that, I would think most players want Harper to hold out for as much as he can get.   Him taking a lowball offer would piss off the union much more than holding out does.  And I'm sure the players all blame the owners for guys not being signed about 100x more than they blame Harper.

[Kevrock]

https://www.phillyvoice.com/live-mlb-rumors-free-agency-updates-phillies-bryce-harper-giants-dodgers-updates-latest-news-craig-kimbrel-7274/

I don't understand why there isn't general outrage at Harper's arrogance and selfishness.  Around 60 players, unsigned because he refuses to make up his mind. Anyone else outraged?

Nope

[Senatorswin]

I heard Steve Phillips on 106.7 this morning say he would not sign Harper. He said Harper was 78th in WAR last year and is not one of the 10 best players in baseball. Ouch!

[Mattionals]

I heard Steve Phillips on 106.7 this morning say he would not sign Harper. He said Harper was 78th in WAR last year and is not one of the 10 best players in baseball. Ouch!

And how did Steve Phillips do as a GM? It's like listening to Bowden.

[Senatorswin]

I don't know much about WAR (I don't even know what it's good for. Maybe absolutely nothing) but if a guy is 78th in WAR and he's supposed to get the highest paid contract ever either in total money or AAV, does that mean he's more hype than substance?

[bluestreak]

I don't know much about WAR (I don't even know what it's good for. Maybe absolutely nothing) but if a guy is 78th in WAR and he's supposed to get the highest paid contract ever either in total money or AAV, does that mean he's more hype than substance?

You’re paying for ceiling. If you’re going by WAR, the only active players that have had a better season than Harper’s 2015 are Trout and Betts.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_bat_season.shtml

[imref]

You’re paying for ceiling. If you’re going by WAR, the only active players that have had a better season than Harper’s 2015 are Trout and Betts.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_bat_season.shtml

seems crazy to pay $35 million a year on the hope a guy can repeat 2015 when you've seen 16, 17 and 18.

[bluestreak]

seems crazy to pay $35 million a year on the hope a guy can repeat 2015 when you've seen 16, 17 and 18.

I’m not saying it’s rational, I’m saying it’s the argument. There are some statheads that say if you do a deep dive, it looks like 2015 was a fluke.

[imref]

Giants seem to be the favorite now, via MLBTR:

As for the Giants, Nightengale says the club is willing to go past $300MM on a ten-year term to land Harper. That’s unsurprising, as it emerged yesterday that the San Francisco organization was willing to go to that length, but is notable nevertheless. Nightengale cites “panic and desperation about season-ticket sales and fan interest” as driving what is “strictly an ownership pursuit.”

[HalfSmokes]

I wonder how many people who would have otherwise not renewed would change their mind based on signing Harper?

[Steve Rogers]

And how did Steve Phillips do as a GM? It's like listening to Bowden.

He won some playoff series and got to a world series...

[imref]

I wonder how many people who would have otherwise not renewed would change their mind based on signing Harper?

probably a lot of corporations.

[nfotiu]

I don't know much about WAR (I don't even know what it's good for. Maybe absolutely nothing) but if a guy is 78th in WAR and he's supposed to get the highest paid contract ever either in total money or AAV, does that mean he's more hype than substance?

WAR was pretty unfair to Harper this year.  He was actually 4.3 offensive WAR and dragged down by a -3 DWAR.   I don't think defensive stats are nearly as reliable.  He is generally a bit of replacement level defensively.  Part of it was playing center field, and part was just small sample size of outfield defensive stats.  I think I read something that said if he had made 3 more catches last year he would have been at replacement level defensively and in the top 10 of overall WAR.   So yeah, it's probably wrong to sign him thinking he'll always be a 10 WAR guy, but it is more silly to think he's going to be a 1.3 WAR guy just because of last year.

[Five Banners]

probably a lot of corporations.

Stands to reason; I'd think it went into the calculus of how many kept their plans because of the draw of Ovechkin despite the playoff messes until last year.

[Baseball is Life]

I wonder how many people who would have otherwise not renewed would change their mind based on signing Harper?

Well, if it works the other way, I know a lot of of Nats fans who didn't renew because they thought he was leaving. No data, though. I know he was the one guy whose AB I never wanted to miss.

[bluestreak]

WAR was pretty unfair to Harper this year.  He was actually 4.3 offensive WAR and dragged down by a -3 DWAR.   I don't think defensive stats are nearly as reliable.  He is generally a bit of replacement level defensively.  Part of it was playing center field, and part was just small sample size of outfield defensive stats.  I think I read something that said if he had made 3 more catches last year he would have been at replacement level defensively and in the top 10 of overall WAR.   So yeah, it's probably wrong to sign him thinking he'll always be a 10 WAR guy, but it is more silly to think he's going to be a 1.3 WAR guy just because of last year.

The number of 78th was based on fWAR, which uses and weights different defensive metrics. His number there was 3.5 WAR, which seems in line with how he produced.

https://www.fangraphs.com/warleaders.aspx?season=2018&team=all

[imref]

Well, if it works the other way, I know a lot of of Nats fans who didn't renew because they thought he was leaving. No data, though. I know he was the one guy whose AB I never wanted to miss.

you can't really compare the situations.  The Nationals are still playing to win.  Even without resigning Harper they made some big off-season moves.  The Giants were 16 games under .500 last year and have made no additions of note that I'm aware of (well, there's Trevor Gott).  Their manager just announced this is his last year.  There have been rumblings that they might trade Bumgarner.  Cueto is out for the year.  So given that, you'd expect their season ticket sales to be dropping, and the team to be desperate to do something like overpay for Harper to turn things around.

[HalfSmokes]

you can't really compare the situations.  The Nationals are still playing to win.  Even without resigning Harper they made some big off-season moves.  The Giants were 16 games under .500 last year and have made no additions of note that I'm aware of (well, there's Trevor Gott).  Their manager just announced this is his last year.  There have been rumblings that they might trade Bumgarner.  Cueto is out for the year.  So given that, you'd expect their season ticket sales to be dropping, and the team to be desperate to do something like overpay for Harper to turn things around.

The giants are also competing with the warriors for local mindshare- good luck with that

[Duke of Earl]

There are some statheads that say if you do a deep dive, it looks like 2015 was a fluke.

I'm not a stathead but my "deep dive" tells me that his 2015 was way overrated. It was a great season. It was not "historically" great, as it has been characterized (mainly by his agent).  Much of it was about his OPS, to which his OBP contributed significantly, because of so may walks.  His triple crown numbers -- batting average, homeruns, and RBIs -- were excellent  but he didn't lead the league in any of the three (tied for homeruns), he didn't even have 100 RBIs.  Excellent season but  simply not "historically" great.

[nfotiu]

The number of 78th was based on fWAR, which uses and weights different defensive metrics. His number there was 3.5 WAR, which seems in line with how he produced.

https://www.fangraphs.com/warleaders.aspx?season=2018&team=all

He was 16th in the majors in OPS which seems a better measure of offensive production.   It's hard to guess if he'll project to his bad years or his good years as a hitter, but I doubt he permanently became a bad outfielder last year.

[nfotiu]

I'm not a stathead but my "deep dive" tells me that his 2015 was way overrated. It was a great season. It was not "historically" great, as it has been characterized (mainly by his agent).  Much of it was about his OPS, to which his OBP contributed significantly, because of so may walks.  His triple crown numbers -- batting average, homeruns, and RBIs -- were excellent  but he didn't lead the league in any of the three (tied for homeruns), he didn't even have 100 RBIs.  Excellent season but  simply not "historically" great.

That goes both ways though.  How many home runs and RBIs would he have got if everyone was throwing him strikes. 

[Baseball is Life]

you can't really compare the situations.  The Nationals are still playing to win.  Even without resigning Harper they made some big off-season moves.  The Giants were 16 games under .500 last year and have made no additions of note that I'm aware of (well, there's Trevor Gott).  Their manager just announced this is his last year.  There have been rumblings that they might trade Bumgarner.  Cueto is out for the year.  So given that, you'd expect their season ticket sales to be dropping, and the team to be desperate to do something like overpay for Harper to turn things around.

Can't comments on the Giants but the Nats, who will be good this year no matter what, won't be as exciting without Harper. There's no one besides Scherzer and Stras that I would get excited to see.

[dracnal]

Can't comments on the Giants but the Nats, who will be good this year no matter what, won't be as exciting without Harper. There's no one besides Scherzer and Stras that I would get excited to see.

I expect Max to be Max. No real concern there and I love watching him pitch. But the guy on field I'm excited to see each day will be Soto. I want to see if he has the Sophomore Slump or if he'll just continue producing and adjusting to changes in how he gets pitched.