The Rotation: 2024

[IanRubbish]

When Gray is ready, I think Corbin really needs to get shoved to the bullpen. It's too hard to justify him in the rotation and his salary is sunk now.

Um, this is the dysfunctional, Lerner-owned Washington Nationals.  Neither ownership nor the GM will ever implicitly or explicitly admit to a mistake.  There is no concept of "sunk costs" on South Capitol Street, Corbin will be in the rotation for the rest of the year.   Someone better or more deserving will likely be pulled out when Gray returns.

[imref]

fun fact, according to optastats,

Over the last 50 seasons (since 1975), there have been 21,395 scoreless outings by MLB starters (reg & post, including Wednesday).

Only one of those 21,395 did so while facing a bases-loaded, no-out jam in 2 separate innings.

That one was the @Nationals' Trevor Williams today.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

observation from Nationals Arm Race:
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Corbin. it’s unclear how long Grey will be out, but he’s already doing 120 feet of throwing and may be doing bullpen sessions soon. That sounds to me like end of May return, which may (finally) spell doom for Corbin here. The only other possibility would be to send Irvin down, but that’d be really difficult to defend if Corbin has an ERA approaching 7.00.

[nobleisthyname]

Next guy to get cut/demoted: Corbin. it’s unclear how long Grey will be out, but he’s already doing 120 feet of throwing and may be doing bullpen sessions soon. That sounds to me like end of May return, which may (finally) spell doom for Corbin here. The only other possibility would be to send Irvin down, but that’d be really difficult to defend if Corbin has an ERA approaching 7.00.

So I guess Parker has leapfrogged Irvin in the rotation hierarchy?

[imref]

So I guess Parker has leapfrogged Irvin in the rotation hierarchy?

One would hope so, but corbin is coming off a strong outing. He should have at least 2 more starts before they need to make a decision on Gray.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So I guess Parker has leapfrogged Irvin in the rotation hierarchy?

if it is based on recent performance, yes. I think a war would break out if they sent down their hottest pitcher not named Williams. Irvin they might be able to get away with. given some of the recent underperformance of the the back 3 in the bullpen (Weems, MBarnes, and Rainey), and the lack of lefties (esp with Robert Hunter/Jerry Garcia out), the right move would be to slide Corbin into a longman or lefty match up guy. Maybe show some of that Game 7 form.

[welch]

Irvin stays in the rotation.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Irvin stays in the rotation.

absolutely. If this season is about building for the future, the quicker the rotation can go to 4-5 team controlled young pitchers the better.

I get in past years Corbin was healthy, took his turn, and gave you 6 innings pretty often except in his extreme poop the bed games. That provided cover for Gray, Gore, and other rotation candidates and usually "Bullpen A."

The team is not at that stage now. They aren't brilliant and it doesn't look like there's a Skenes and Jared Jones on the horizon, but there's arms that can be useful going forward now. Certainly Gore and possibly more in Parker and Irvin, not to mention Goudot Cavalli. Gray is not a lost cause either. I'd like to see those 5 arms after 8/1, maybe DJ Herz.

Corbin's role once Gray is healthy has to be relief. The team has a weak back end and could use a multi-inning guy, especially a lefty. There's no need for loyalty to Matt Barnes at this point. If he's doing OK, another team will take a chance on him, and waiving him would be merciful.

[varoadking]

Corbin's role once Gray is healthy has to be relief mop up.

FIFY

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/10/trevor-williams-nationals-pitcher/

Golden article on changes Williams made to his pitch mix. A lot about recognizing what wasn't working last year and emphasizing what works better this year. He's reduced his reliance on his fastball to his lowest usage every (36.4%), and he's using the sweeper a lot more (17.9% after single digit usage last year). He's also mostly shelved the curve, his least effective pitch. Now the mix still has the fastball as most used, but throwing 4 other pitches off speed, tunneling his sweeper and slider, and working low has led to a more effective fastball and better results.

As for his pitch mix, Williams left his fastball up in the zone and over the plate too often. But he was pleased with what he saw from his secondary pitches. His change-up was elite at times, but in pursuit of more consistency, he tweaked his grip. His sinker worked well in the bottom part of the zone and on the corners. And then he looked at his breaking ball usage.

Williams primarily used his slider last season, with his curveball as a get-me-over pitch he would throw for strikes. But he realized that he underutilized his sweeper, a pitch he added in 2021. He only threw the sweeper 73 times (2.8%), yet it had the highest whiff percentage of any of his pitches. Now, he’s throwing it 17.9 percent of the time while rarely using his curveball.

Catcher Riley Adams said Williams’s curveball stayed up in the zone last year, allowing hitters to recognize it early. His sweeper and slider play better off each at the bottom of the zone — the sweeper is a bit slower than the slider but they’re hard to differentiate from each other. All four of his secondary pitches are working in harmony to make his fastball look better.

The comments refer to a recent MLBTR article on his improvement that goes over much the same ground, then discusses the potential for extending him or dealing him.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/the-hot-start-of-trevor-williams-raises-interesting-questions.html

More on the pitching mix change:

The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off

Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.

The Nats will need roster space when Gray is ready. It'll mean cutting Rainey or Weems, or it will mean dealing a pitcher. This exercise will be repeated when Cavalli is ready.

[Slateman]

But what do we do with the rotation if Cavalli is ready to come back and Williams is still throwing well?

[Mattionals]

But what do we do with the rotation if Cavalli is ready to come back and Williams is still throwing well?

I'd bet that Cavalli won't be called up until right around the trade deadline, and if Williams is still throwing well, he should be traded.

[welch]

Corbin starts tonight. Almost a guaranteed loss. Ugh.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

But what do we do with the rotation if Cavalli is ready to come back and Williams is still throwing well?

These "problems" almost always sort themselves out due to injuries, however I'd say go 6-man if somehow Gore/Gray/Irwin/Parker/Williams/Cavalli all were healthy together.  Mopst of them have some innings limitations, so that solves that problem.

[imref]

Corbin starts tonight. Almost a guaranteed loss. Ugh.

We've won the last two games Corbin started (after losing the first four).

[Slateman]

These "problems" almost always sort themselves out due to injuries, however I'd say go 6-man if somehow Gore/Gray/Irwin/Parker/Williams/Cavalli all were healthy together.  Mopst of them have some innings limitations, so that solves that problem.

Except we need Gore and Gray to get innings

[JCA-CrystalCity]

But what do we do with the rotation if Cavalli is ready to come back and Williams is still throwing well?

deal williams. That is the answer then and may be the answer when Gray is ready if there's a good return.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Except we need Gore and Gray to get innings

The odds of having all 6 of those guys healthy for any significant period of time is super slim.  There are also the sort of “phantom” injuries if not to have perhaps Parker skipped a few times.

Also, Cavalli won’t be ready for long before the deadline.  Unless we’re within a few games of the WC, Williams is dealt.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I wonder how they are going to handle the Saturday start in Philly. Either Williams or Parker goes on short rest, or they will need a call up.

[rbw5t]

I wonder how they are going to handle the Saturday start in Philly. Either Williams or Parker goes on short rest, or they will need a call up.

No, it’s all fine. Irvin Friday on 5 days rest, Gore Saturday on 5 days rest, and Williams Sunday on 4 days.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No, it’s all fine. Irvin Friday on 5 days rest, Gore Saturday on 5 days rest, and Williams Sunday on 4 days.

I had been thinking this was 4 games in Philly, but with just 3 games and none on Thursday, it works out as you say.