Lineup and Batting Order: Arranging the Titanic's Deck Chairs

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's only a little over a week, and results will likely differ, but after paying a lot of attention to the 2023 weakness among lefty hitters, this year's lineup is showing signs of being imbalanced the other way.

So  far, clearly the 3 best hitters have been Abrams, Garcia, and Winker. If you are a wOBA or OPS fan, Gallo has had probably the next best performance among the players with > 15 PAs.

Among the worst performers, pretty clear that Thomas has gotten off to an awful start in terms of results. Meneses too has had a tough start, with statcast "X" (expected) stats suggesting he may be the most snakebit, but coming off of last year, you wonder if what we are seeing is who he is. Trey has performed well enough, at average hitter levels by wRC+ (.286 with a .357 BABIP, not much power with an ISO of .143, .318 OBP).  Some of the righty platoon guys (Robles, Adams, and Vargas) did well with 5 -12 PAs each.

Pulling all this together, and knowing Davey's preference to alternate lefties and righties, it looks like 1-3-5-7 are pretty much comfortable as is - Abrams, Winker, Gallo, Garcia. Among the righties, when facing RHP, you wonder at what point should they shuffle Thomas, Meneses, maybe Ruiz, and Lipscomb. I don't think Lipscomb should be moved up yet, but I wonder about hitting Ruiz higher in the order. Against LHP, Adams deserves his chances, and maybe as high as 5.

[Senatorswin]

Last year Thomas had an OPS against right handers of .719 and against left handers of .948. If he continues to struggle through May maybe you bring Wood up and ease him in by platooning him. Have Thomas start against lefties and Wood righties. Not sure it's the way to go but might give Wood a chance to get off to a good start in the bigs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Outside of DC, Thomas is thought of as a righty platoon bat and a 4th outfielder. nothing more. In this lineup, he's viewed as a 1/2/4 prime bat.

[aspenbubba]

Outside of DC, Thomas is thought of as a righty platoon bat and a 4th outfielder. nothing more. In this lineup, he's viewed as a 1/2/4 prime bat.

In todays lineup Young is batting lead-off. I would have preferred Thomas to get his bat going. Im guessing that DM doesn't want to upset the apple cart as it will only be for a couple of fays with Abrams out.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

In todays lineup Young is batting lead-off. I would have preferred Thomas to get his bat going. Im guessing that DM doesn't want to upset the apple cart as it will only be for a couple of fays with Abrams out.

but hitting 3rd? 

[aspenbubba]

but hitting 3rd? 

I wasn’t making myself clear. I would have preferred Thomas leading off.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

no, you were clear enough. I am a bit surprised he's hitting 3rd. either leadoff, as you say, or slot him in his normal spot (2). 3rd does neither. It's worked ok. That's why Davey is paid to manage and I get bonus points at Dunkin when I buy stuff.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't expect the roster and the lineup to look the same in after Senzel and Garrett are ready. I'm not sure when Robles is ready, and I'm not sure when Wood may get his chance, but I think there's a fare amount of flotsam they could be dropped or sent down.

Winker probably should be the every day DH. Gallo will play either left or 1st, depending on how Garrett is used and whether they give Yepez an opportunity.

Senzel will get a run at 3rd, so Lipscomb can be sent to Rochester when that happens.

Rosario may still be a major leaguer, but I don't see keeping him around over a righty bat given the balance of the team. If he's released, then there's an opportunity for Yepez to be added to the roster. IF Garrett is ready, then he could be called up either initially as as a DH or, if he's ready, in LF.

In this scenario, I think there's a Young vs. Robles tradeoff. I suspect they give the CF spot to Robles there. If Robles is ready before Garrett, then maybe you go with both Young and Robles, but that's a very light hitting outfield.

Meneses has options. Use them. He does hit the ball hard, but he just doesn't elevate the ball. He's a bad version of Michael Morse.

Infield bench? Nassim Nunez? Not sure he is going to get 100 PAs and 10 starts at this point. Vargas? Does his job.

I think a few moves could make this a much more competitive lineup.

2 C - Ruiz / Adams (Millas)
1 1B - Yepez
1 2B -  Garcia
1 SS - Abrams
1 3B - Senzel and a prayer
2 IF Bench - Vargas, Nunez on life support
4 OF - Thomas, [one of Robles or Young], Gallo if Yepez is up, Rosario, Garrett when healthy platooning with Gallo, with Winker and Senzel available when needed, and Wood in the wings.
1 DH - Winker (Garrett until he can run).
13

This could hold until Wood gets his run, maybe in CF with Robles moving to a backup. Could also see Millas get a run at 3rd C if Garrett isn't ready so the Nats could use Adams at DH or if Gallo stays at 1st if Garrett is ready.

Am I nuts to think adding Yepez, moving a better defender to LF, and replacing Lipscomb with Senzel, and adding Garrrett to the lineup adds a lot to the team? It's a bit of rearranging the Titanic's chairs, but adding Wood to this rearrangement should substantially upgrade the D and the O.

[GataNats]

No reason for Rosario to be on this team, let alone starting

[Slateman]

Is there any way to get Lane Thomas out of the 2 hole?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is there any way to get Lane Thomas out of the 2 hole?

there's a joke in that, but it should be in uncensored.

CJ likes lead off so much,  it's hard to flip them. Given how lefty the lineup is, you could stack CJ and Winker, then slot Thomas 3rd, with Gallo 4th and then go from there. That works well against righty starters. Vs LHP, you maybe go Thomas then CJ, or perhaps something unconventional like Ramos/ Adams at #2.

[aspenbubba]

there's a joke in that, but it should be in uncensored.

CJ likes lead off so much,  it's hard to flip them. Given how lefty the lineup is, you could stack CJ and Winker, then slot Thomas 3rd, with Gallo 4th and then go from there. That works well against righty starters. Vs LHP, you maybe go Thomas then CJ, or perhaps something unconventional like Ramos/ Adams at #2.

Wilson has been gone for awhile. 😃

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Wilson has been gone for awhile. 😃

I suppose that would be really unconventional.


Ruiz.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

“He’s got a real grasp on how he’s handling the pitching staff -- individual pitchers, our starters, what he wants to do, how he wants to attack hitters,” Martinez said of Adams. “He’s done a great job. He’s really taken charge, his communication’s been off the charts with the pitchers, so it’s been good.”

During that span, Adams had three multihit games and one home run. With this momentum, Martinez would like to find ways to keep Adams engaged and in the lineup.

“We’re definitely going to use him,” said Martinez. “We’re going to let him catch, and we can also DH Keibert like we’ve done in the past … He’s learned a lot over the years, and he’s really coming into his own.”

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/keibert-ruiz-returns-to-nationals-lineup-after-illness

It looks like Adams will play more and there will be more days when both Keibert and Adams will be in the lineup. It looks like having a few minimally useful or poor performers on the roster is beginning to block putting there best 13 position players active. Nunez might be the type of guy a good team could afford to carry as a pinch running and defensive specialist, but on this team with a weak lineup, Drew Millas would be a lot more useful as a #3 C in that he would allow both of the other Cs to be in the lineup at the same time.

In terms of the playing time battle, Meneses so far hasn't been a disaster at 1st and is beginning to put some space between his offense and that of Gallo. Not saying JM is hitting for power like you'd want from a 1st baseman, but he had a decent homestand for contact. I would not have targeted Gallo in the offseason, but I bought into the idea that he could be helpful once he was signed. I had hoped for career level offense, not peak Gallo, but he's taken a step back even from his 2022-23 decline. He's deadman walking without more power results and a cut back to even 35 K%.

Rosario? He's had some hard luck, and he's given some defensive versatility, but honestly he looks cooked. Certainly should go when the next OF, Garrett or Wood, is ready. Garrett could be really helpful as this lineup is short on righty power.

[nobleisthyname]

Meneses so far hasn't been a disaster at 1st and is beginning to put some space between his offense and that of Gallo. Not saying JM is hitting for power like you'd want from a 1st baseman, but he had a decent homestand for contact. I would not have targeted Gallo in the offseason, but I bought into the idea that he could be helpful once he was signed. I had hoped for career level offense, not peak Gallo, but he's taken a step back even from his 2022-23 decline. He's deadman walking without more power results and a cut back to even 35 K%

I'm not convinced that Menses is in fact separating himself from Gallo offensively.

Gallo
OPS: .627
wRC+: 84

Meneses
OPS: .621
wRC+: 78

Gallo is also average or plus with the glove while Menses is a negative.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm not convinced that Menses is in fact separating himself from Gallo offensively.

Gallo
OPS: .627
wRC+: 84

Meneses
OPS: .621
wRC+: 78

Gallo is also average or plus with the glove while Menses is a negative.

you may be right but I am feeling recent trends may continue.

2 week numbers back to 4/12 have Meneses .344 / .421 / .375 while Gallo is .065 / .275 / .129. Neither has a homer.  All those numbers will normalize and it's only around 40 PAs for both, but I'd say Meneses is closer to performing to expectations now than Gallo.

[IanRubbish]

Can't remember ever seeing a lineup where 5, 6, and 7 are all hitting below .200, two of whom are under .150.

But...Rizzo's invested in them, and Mini Me paid them, so they will play. 

[nobleisthyname]

Ok I'm cool with Meneses over Gallo.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Meneses may not be able to elevate a ball anymore, but he's slapping enough through the infield to make him useful now.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

by the way, in AAA, Blankenhorn is .313 / .402 / .625, Yepez is .275 / .396 / .475.

[aspenbubba]

After last nights disappointing outcome and the three main culprits roster changes need to be made before the season devolves into a nightmare. Meneses needs to be sent down and I can’t believe I’m saying this but Gallo should take his place. Winker does not need to start and the OF should be Young Robles and Rosario ( who is finally starting to hit). The hardest decision is who DH’s and Senzel should be replaced by Ruiz / Adams with Millas being brought up.
 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm not there with you all the way.

I am down on Senzel's performance. As I said in the GDT, I don't think Lipscomb is an MLB hitter at this point, but I'm more comfortable with him up than Senzel when we need a base hit. Senzel seems to be drifting a bit, selling out some for power by sacrificing contact and plate discipline.

As for Winker, he is a bat first guy buried in left who is cast right on this team - the 3rd best LH hitter, slotted in 5th. He's not going to be much different than a .250 hitter with runners on or bases empty because he's a .250 hitter with decent pop. I don't have super expectations for CJ/Garcia level performance, but I don't see how our best 9 right now doesn't include him. Robles only replaces him with a lead late.

For better or worse, I expect Gallo to be back soon and the lineup to revert to Senzel at 3rd, Meneses DH, Gallo at 1st, Winker in left, and Lip in Rochester. To be honest, in some ways the lineup works better now, would be better with some sort of 3-way split of DH/1B among Senzel, Meneses, and Gallo with Lip still at 3rd. However, unless Nunez is dropped from the roster, it'll be Lip to Rochester when Gallo is back.

Meneses? I'd like to Yepez get a shot. Blankenhorn should be rostered maybe ahead of anyone in Rochester, but lefty hitting is less of a weakness than our righties right now.

Spotting in Vargas as a PH more often when we need contact would be good. It's turned into a skill of his.

[varoadking]

I'm not there with you all the way.

I am down on Senzel's performance. As I said in the GDT, I don't think Lipscomb is an MLB hitter at this point, but I'm more comfortable with him up than Senzel when we need a base hit. Senzel seems to be drifting a bit, selling out some for power by sacrificing contact and plate discipline.

As for Winker, he is a bat first guy buried in left who is cast right on this team - the 3rd best LH hitter, slotted in 5th. He's not going to be much different than a .250 hitter with runners on or bases empty because he's a .250 hitter with decent pop. I don't have super expectations for CJ/Garcia level performance, but I don't see how our best 9 right now doesn't include him. Robles only replaces him with a lead late.

For better or worse, I expect Gallo to be back soon and the lineup to revert to Senzel at 3rd, Meneses DH, Gallo at 1st, Winker in left, and Lip in Rochester. To be honest, in some ways the lineup works better now, would be better with some sort of 3-way split of DH/1B among Senzel, Meneses, and Gallo with Lip still at 3rd. However, unless Nunez is dropped from the roster, it'll be Lip to Rochester when Gallo is back.

Meneses? I'd like to Yepez get a shot. Blankenhorn should be rostered maybe ahead of anyone in Rochester, but lefty hitting is less of a weakness than our righties right now.

Spotting in Vargas as a PH more often when we need contact would be good. It's turned into a skill of his.

Reading those names as our starting lineup is a stark reminder of just how far the roster has fallen in such a short time...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Reading those names as our starting lineup is a stark reminder of just how far the roster has fallen in such a short time...

eh, we are talking about the bottom of the roster, dice roll FAs, and scrapping to optmize. Put another way, we aren't talking about Garcia blowing all expectations away, Young seeming like Brett Butler, or perhaps the emergence of Mr. May, Eddie Rosario.

[Natsinpwc]

Reading those names as our starting lineup is a stark reminder of just how far the roster has fallen in such a short time...

We’re coming back baby!  (I hope). I don’t know why you are down on Davey. It’s not much of a roster. Amazing they are at .500 although that won’t last. He’s not much of a tactician but  the boys appear to like playing for him which is important in a long season. Plenty of time to get a better manager for when they contend again.