2023-24 free agency, trades, and signings

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Jorge Soler turns down his option and is a FA

[nobleisthyname]

Cody Bellinger does the same with the Cubs.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/cody-bellinger-declines-mutual-option-with-cubs.html

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'll be interested in Soler's market. He's definitely coming off a peak / rebound season, but he's good for 25+ HRs if he stays healthier than 2022. only 32 next year, bad but minimally playable in the corner outfield maybe in a Josh Willingham /Joey Meneses mode. he turned down $13 million. weak market for hitters.

Wade Miley will be available, as will Lance Lynn. The former has good results with weak stuff while the latter is an old rebound candidate for a 1 year deal, I/M/O. Mike Clevinger, too.

[nobleisthyname]

Marcus Stroman also opts out, though by definition that means he's certainly looking for a multi-year deal. A bit of a surprise maybe considering his second half injury and struggles.

[imref]

Cody Bellinger does the same with the Cubs.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/cody-bellinger-declines-mutual-option-with-cubs.html

Do it Rizzo!

[imref]

Reds decline Joey Votto’s option. End of an era.

[Natsinpwc]

Reds decline Joey Votto’s option. End of an era.

Sounds like he wants to try another year. Would not be surprised if the Reds bring him back on a cheap one year deal. Can only play 1B but still a decent fielder. Don’t think there would be much interest elsewhere.

[welch]

Detroit trades AA pitcher, Blake Holub, to Milwaukee for Mark Canha, who would have been a decent LF for the Nats in 2024. He will make about $11 million next season.

The Athletic comments:

Where will Canha fit in Detroit’s puzzle?

The Tigers pinch-hit more than any team in baseball last season, so it will be highly interesting to see how the Tigers mix and match next season with Canha in the picture.

Canha has experience playing all three outfield spots in addition to lesser stints at third base and first base. He has generally graded out as a below-average defender for most of his career but was worth three defensive runs saved in the outfield last season. Canha actually has better splits against right-handed pitching for most of his career (a .777 OPS versus righties and a .761 OPS against lefties) but posted a .826 OPS against left-handers last season.

With Miguel Cabrera no longer occupying the DH spot, it’s easy to see Canha spending time in both the outfield and the DH spot and platooning with Detroit’s three left-handed outfielders in Riley Greene, Parker Meadows and Kerry Carpenter. — Stavenhagen


What do the Brewers get in Holub?

Holub has a 4.45 ERA over two seasons in the minors. The Tigers selected him in the 15th round of the 2021 draft out of St. Edward’s University. Holub, who struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings across High A and Double A this past season, was not ranked among the Tigers’ top 30 prospects. The relief pitcher stands 6 feet 6 and is best known for a mid-90s fastball with good spin and vertical breaking pitches. — Stavenhagen

[Natsinpwc]

No reason to trade a prospect for Canha if you are the Nats. Sign after agent. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Buffaloes confirm they are going to post Yamamoto.  Top of the rotation 25 year.

Shortly after losing Game 7 of the Japan Series to the Hanshin Tigers, the Orix Buffaloes announced this morning that they have approved the posting of ace right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to MLB. As noted by MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the next step in the process is the formal declaration of a posting window, which will last 45 days upon being announced. Morosi suggests that the announcement could occur in the coming days. Yamamoto has long been expected to enter MLB free agency via the posting system this offseason, though today’s news marks the first official confirmation from the Buffaloes that Yamamoto will be posted.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/npbs-orix-buffaloes-approve-posting-of-yoshinobu-yamamoto.html

Sadly, I don't think having cherry trees in the stands counts towards the Nats bid.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No reason to trade a prospect for Canha if you are the Nats. Sign after agent. 

the price was 25 year old AA reliever who was not in the Tigers top 30.  Think Ribalta or a touch better. That's not too high a price.

[Slateman]

the price was 25 year old AA reliever who was not in the Tigers top 30.  Think Ribalta or a touch better. That's not too high a price.

Theres no reason to trade for him. He isnt going to get morr at the deadline. He isnt going to win you more games. Why burn a prospect and 11 million in a useless player?

[Natsinpwc]

the price was 25 year old AA reliever who was not in the Tigers top 30.  Think Ribalta or a touch better. That's not too high a price.

Yea but that guy might work out. Don’t see why the Tigers wanted him either.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Theres no reason to trade for him. He isnt going to get morr at the deadline. He isnt going to win you more games. Why burn a prospect and 11 million in a useless player?

not sure about the bold text. I'd like to see if we can be on the fringe of the WC next year. Low 80s in wins gets you into contention. I think there's enough cheap talent around to augment in a couple of spots and get there. Frankly, I'd acquire him and convert see if you can sign him maybe for 2 years at a bit lower AAV.

[Slateman]

not sure about the bold text. I'd like to see if we can be on the fringe of the WC next year. Low 80s in wins gets you into contention. I think there's enough cheap talent around to augment in a couple of spots and get there. Frankly, I'd acquire him and convert see if you can sign him maybe for 2 years at a bit lower AAV.

Lol, we're no where near a fringe WC team. Giving 11 million dollars and a minor leaguer for a declining 35 year old with no power is a waste of money and resources.

We have like 11 potential players for three outfield spots. No reason to add more.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Lol, we're no where near a fringe WC team. Giving 11 million dollars and a minor leaguer for a declining 35 year old with no power is a waste of money and resources.

We have like 11 potential players for three outfield spots. No reason to add more.

Canha may be declining, but he's still a 120 OPS+ outfielder every year since 2019 except for a stretch last year with the Mets before his trade to Milwaukee. You can go back to 2018 and say he's 110 OPS+ even including the whole of 2023. His OBP is a consistent  .350+.  I'll take that sort of decline.

If we don't bring someone in, who is your left fielder to start next year?

[Slateman]

Canha may be declining, but he's still a 120 OPS+ outfielder every year since 2019 except for a stretch last year with the Mets before his trade to Milwaukee. You can go back to 2018 and say he's 110 OPS+ even including the whole of 2023. His OBP is a consistent  .350+.  I'll take that sort of decline.

If we don't bring someone in, who is your left fielder to start next year?

He had a 108 OPS+ last year. Lowest OBP since 2018. Sub 10% walk rate.

Canha is a textbook depreciating asset. Zero reason to commit anything to him on this team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He had a 108 OPS+ last year.

not what this says:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mark-canha/11445/stats?position=OF

111 for the year.  As for lowest OBP, correct but still .355.  I don't disagree that the power's not there, but the OBP has held up well.

[Natsinpwc]

Theres no reason to trade for him. He isnt going to get morr at the deadline. He isnt going to win you more games. Why burn a prospect and 11 million in a useless player?

Agree. Nats need to keep all the lottery tickets they can.  Canha seems like a good piece for a contender. 4th OF. Not sure why the Tigers went for that.

[Slateman]

not what this says:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mark-canha/11445/stats?position=OF

111 for the year.  As for lowest OBP, correct but still .355.  I don't disagree that the power's not there, but the OBP has held up well.

Thats wRC+. BR has OPS+: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canhama01.shtml

Either way its no where near 120.

Walk rate has diminished over the last four seasons. His defense is nothing to write home about. His metrics indicate a lot of batted ball luck mixed with speed. At 35 I dont see why his decline wouldnt continue.

Is 10.2 million dollars really worth the extra 30-40 OBP points Cahna will give you over Alex Call? I dont think so. Again, we have plenty of guys to roll out there and give a shot. May as well in another developmental season. And of Im wrong and we are actually competitive, we can just trade Garvin Alston for him at the deadline

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Thats wRC+. BR has OPS+: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canhama01.shtml

Either way its no where near 120.

You are correct, but note it was 120 in Milwaukee. I do like wOBA better because OPS overweights SLG, which we both acknowledge is past prime.

Is 10.2 million dollars really worth the extra 30-40 OBP points Cahna will give you over Alex Call? I dont think so. Again, we have plenty of guys to roll out there and give a shot. May as well in another developmental season. And of Im wrong and we are actually competitive, we can just trade Garvin Alston for him at the deadline

Kind of depends on your attitude about $10 million on a team far away from the cap. Maybe the answer is spend it, there needs to be another OF, but there are guys like Duvall and a few others that might be smarter to spend on without giving up talent.

[Slateman]

You are correct, but note it was 120 in Milwaukee. I do like wOBA better because OPS overweights SLG, which we both acknowledge is past prime.
Kind of depends on your attitude about $10 million on a team far away from the cap. Maybe the answer is spend it, there needs to be another OF, but there are guys like Duvall and a few others that might be smarter to spend on without giving up talent.

Milwaukee was 50 games and a .326 BABIP. So that seems like a pretty big outlier.

10 million is a lot for current ownership.

[blue911]

If Canha was a free agent, he’d be lucky to get $5m let alone $10m.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Alright. I would want him as Free Agent but not in trade. I'd say the price Detroit paid shows he'd get more as a free agent, but Detroit.

[Natsinpwc]

Alright. I would want him as Free Agent but not in trade. I'd say the price Detroit paid shows he'd get more as a free agent, but Detroit.

Maybe they think they can flip him at the deadline for a better prospect than what they gave up?