Great post and analysis. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Do you honestly believe Harper has any shot of signing here? I think it is a foregone conclusion he is going to the Yankees personally. Rendon is great, love him, but I wouldn't commit long term dollars to him given injury history.
I'd say there's a decent chance that Bryce stays in DC. He's said multiple times that he has tremendous respect for players like Jeter, Gwynn and Ripken, who play their whole career for one team, and how the club and the fan base evolve around that player, and how that affects a player's legacy. He will make ridiculous buckets of money no matter where he plays, but he has a chance to put DC on the map as a baseball town, and that's something that NY or LA or Philly can't possibly offer him. I have no doubt that the Lerners will make him a fair, competitive offer. If he feels like they'll also give him a competitive number of chances to win a ring and he feels that he's got a chance at a legacy, then he's staying put. Regardless, as a team the Nats have to prepare themselves now to be able to extend him; how stupid would it be to lose a player like that, not over money, not over chemistry, but because it would screw your ability to stay below the luxury tax threshold? (btw this is why any talks of Verlander to the Dodgers is just idle gossip.)
As for Rendon, I think you assume a certain amount of injury risk with any player's long term contract. I mean, in March did anyone expect 2 DL stints for Turner and 0 for Zimm or Weiters? Even Werth's DL stint is from a freak batting accident. Rendon hasn't had a DL stint since 2015 and let's all knock some wood for even thinking of certain things. The Nats seem to be doing a good job of helping him stay on the field (which is another thing I think will factor in Bryce's decision-- the Nats rebuilt their conditioning/training/medical program in 2016 and several of the players have said in interviews that it's state-of-the-art and helps them stay on the field).
