K-Law's top 100 prospects and Nats's system ranking

[HalfSmokes]

Signs of a bad GM according to HalfSmokes: keeping your top draft picks instead of trading them; having your top draft picks consistently turn into good major league pieces; trading for better players with multiple years of team control instead of using lesser players within your own system because "you developed them yourself".

Anything I'm missing?

you're the one who said that Rizzo is turning non top selections into prospects, it's just not true. If you want to deify him, at least do it for things he's actually done.

Imagine if we had to give up Rendon and Cole to get Fister because only our top selections ever because decent prospects. Yikes.

please tell me what non top selection has actually turned into a decent prospect? The only one I can think of is Cole and he was a bonus baby

[sportsfan882]

Can someone post BP's article on Nats prospects?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22872#154750

The Top Ten

RHP Lucas Giolito
RHP A.J. Cole
CF Brian Goodwin
CF Michael Taylor
RHP Jake Johansen
RHP Jefry Rodriguez
1B Matt Skole
C Pedro Severino
RF Drew Vettleson
3B Drew Ward

[sportsfan882]

Where's Sammy Solis on his list?

And why is Drew Vettleson on it?

[NJ Ave]

you're the one who said that Rizzo is turning non top selections into prospects, it's just not true. If you want to deify him, at least do it for things he's actually done.

please tell me what non top selection has actually turned into a decent prospect? The only one I can think of is Cole and he was a bonus baby

Who do you think we traded for Gio, Fister, Lobaton? Or are Billy Beane, Dave Dombrowski, and Andrew Friedman such terrible GMs that they traded away pretty decent players for "non-prospects"?

[NJ Ave]

I didn't claim he turned non-top selections into "players". I said "prospects". He's then used those "prospects" to trade for "players". And I still fail to see how that's not as valuable as forcing every player you draft onto the major league roster.

You're hopelessly myopic if you think Rizzo hasn't added talent to this roster using our lower ranked prospects.

[NJ Ave]

I mean, I'm pretty happy we have Fister (a player we didn't draft) instead of Lombardozzi and Ray (two we did). I guess you think that move was evidence that Rizzo can't develop non-first rounders, though.

[HalfSmokes]

for Gio we traded cole (bonus baby), Norris (Bowden GM when drafted), Peackock (Bowden GM) and Milone- so I guess there's your example
for Fister we traded a bunch of Rizzo picks, and everyone, you included thought is was a steal- can anyone even find a legitimate source saying otherwise?
for lobatron, we traded a rizzo pick for a back up catcher, so to the extent you consider karns a 'prospect' we traded him for a backup catcher

[blue911]

The Nationals are an extremely impressive club and while the farm system might not have exciting depth, the high-end potential at the top and the youth at the major-league level more than makes up for that deficiency. –Mark Anderson

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22872

[NJ Ave]

for Gio we traded cole (bonus baby), Norris (Bowden GM when drafted), Peackock (Bowden GM) and Milone- so I guess there's your example
for Fister we traded a bunch of Rizzo picks, and everyone, you included thought is was a steal- can anyone even find a legitimate source saying otherwise?
for lobatron, we traded a rizzo pick for a back up catcher, so to the extent you consider karns a 'prospect' we traded him for a backup catcher

Hahahaha, yes, I guess I shouldn't give Rizzo credit for drafting AJ Cole in the 4th round, or for Derek Norris since he was only in charge of the Nationals amateur scouting at the time.

Look, I'm not deifying Rizzo. He certainly hasn't shored up the long-term "who do we keep and not keep" questions, I thought he handled the Strasburg shut down badly, I thought he was overly patient last year with a bunch of non-performers, etc.

But you're WAYYYYY on the other end of the spectrum.

[HalfSmokes]

Hahahaha, yes, I guess I shouldn't give Rizzo credit for drafting AJ Cole in the 4th round, or for Derek Norris since he was only in charge of the Nationals amateur scouting at the time.

Look, I'm not deifying Rizzo. He certainly hasn't shored up the long-term "who do we keep and not keep" questions, I thought he handled the Strasburg shut down badly, I thought he was overly patient last year with a bunch of non-performers, etc.

But you're WAYYYYY on the other end of the spectrum.

not really, I think the major league team he's assembled is the best in the league and that we have a great chance to win in the next two years. I just don't think that the farm is strong enough to replace what it looks like we'll loose or that they've shown any ability to draft the kind of stars they'll need to replace desmond/zimmermann/strasburg/harper/now fister absent the very high picks we hopefully won't be seeing for a while and stay competitive, and I think Rizzo gets far too much praise for a farm system that's average at best

[NJ Ave]

You realize that it's average at best because he graduates players to the majors, right? And that he's traded other players for people that are currently on the major league roster?

I mean, would you rather have Rendon, Meyer, Harper, and Ray in our farm system? Because that could easily be the case (none drafted before 2010) and that's the number one farm system in baseball. At the expense of the Major League product of course.

[HalfSmokes]

Which is why I included 'absent very high draft picks' because I don't think we see another Zimmerman or Rendon or Harper or Strasburg or Giolito available in the draft (at least hopefully). There was an awful string of suck that got us the current group of major leaguers that we hopefully never see again 

[NJ Ave]

Talent is drafted everywhere in the first round, as are busts. I haven't seen compelling evidence that high draft picks are determanitive in outcomes. And Giolito wasn't a top pick anyways, and he and Meyer certainly indicate Rizzo can find [at least pitching] talent later in the first round. Goodwin is another example.

[imref]

You realize that it's average at best because he graduates players to the majors, right? And that he's traded other players for people that are currently on the major league roster?

I mean, would you rather have Rendon, Meyer, Harper, and Ray in our farm system? Because that could easily be the case (none drafted before 2010) and that's the number one farm system in baseball. At the expense of the Major League product of course.

Meyer is the one I wish we still had, but I still agree with the decision to trade for Span.

[natasaurus]

Brian Goodwin is 13 and Michael Taylor is 23 on BA's list of top centerfield prospects.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/position-by-position-rankings-center-fielders/

[zimm_da_kid]

Can someone post BP's article on Nats prospects?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22872#154750

The Top Ten

RHP Lucas Giolito
RHP A.J. Cole
CF Brian Goodwin
CF Michael Taylor
RHP Jake Johansen
RHP Jefry Rodriguez
1B Matt Skole
C Pedro Severino
RF Drew Vettleson
3B Drew Ward

Intrigued by Severino, Jefry, and Vettleson, also would like to see a newer, more detailed opinion of Ward.

[natasaurus]

I had some time so I scoured the positional lists for Nats and here's how BA has ranked some of our prospects:

Recently traded away Robbie Ray is 16, Solis is 20 and Purke is 26 for LHP.

Steven Souza checks in at 32 for corner outfielders.

AJ Cole finally shows up at 38 (!) for right handed pitchers.

And Matt Skole ranks as the 8th best first baseman in a weak field.

It should be noted that centerfield and RHP were considered loaded categories, while first and LHP were especially weak.  No Nats prospects in 2B, SS, 3B, C, or reliever.

[Jordanz Meatballz]

I guess when you start drafting lower, your prospects aren't as highly regarded. No top ten prospects at any position according to MLB.com http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/

Looking back at draft history though, there's not a single player taken in the first round that I'd take over who the Nats selected since 2009 (I'll take Giolito's potential over Michael Wacha for now), and every team that didn't select Mike Trout has that problem.

Also, four teams picked relative bums over Buster Posey in 2008. Ouch.

[HalfSmokes]

In retrospect, the funny thing about trout is that people discounted his talent because he was killing the competition in New Jersey and people thought he was just preying on terrible pitching- turns out he still killing the competition at the major league level.

I think Giolito could turn into the best player in his draft, and, I may be crazy, but I think Skole will turn into a good first baseman- prospect rankings seem biased towards the beef, but a big first baseman who can hit is a lot more valuable than a rangy first baseman who may be capable of stealing a base or two

[nats4ever]

for Gio we traded cole (bonus baby), Norris (Bowden GM when drafted), Peackock (Bowden GM) and Milone- so I guess there's your example
for Fister we traded a bunch of Rizzo picks, and everyone, you included thought is was a steal- can anyone even find a legitimate source saying otherwise?
for lobatron, we traded a rizzo pick for a back up catcher, so to the extent you consider karns a 'prospect' we traded him for a backup catcher

So Rizzo is a bad gm huh? Bad decision for the rays catcher deal huh? Knowing Ramos and his injury history.

In retrospect, the funny thing about trout is that people discounted his talent because he was killing the competition in New Jersey and people thought he was just preying on terrible pitching- turns out he still killing the competition at the major league level.

I think Giolito could turn into the best player in his draft, and, I may be crazy, but I think Skole will turn into a good first baseman- prospect rankings seem biased towards the beef, but a big first baseman who can hit is a lot more valuable than a rangy first baseman who may be capable of stealing a base or two

But I thought rizzo was a bad gm. He picked Giolito lol. Looks like that Lobaton trade was smart huh? Rizzo wasn't smart huh? Trying to hop on the rizzo wagon now that they are 3-0.