Worst Offensive Performance - 2018 Edition

[varoadking]

Since you asked and it’s raining...

If it's still raining...can you compare their swing and miss rates?

[bluestreak]

If it's still raining...can you compare their swing and miss rates?

I don’t have time to do the full post, but I did a look at the numbers and he’s worse in contact rates than those guys both in and outside the strike zone. Which is what I imagine you were getting at.
Which isn’t a surprise. We all know that Harper isn’t a contact hitter. He never has been. And his value never lied in just making contact. Power has been has been his bailiwick. If you compare him to comparable style of hitters he compares favorably. Like I said he can do better, but he is getting lots of junk. Do we want Harper to change is style to being a contact hitter or should we maybe wait until we have the full lineup back and see what happens.
Judge and Stanton last year were 8 win players seeing better pitches than Harper with worse contact rates. Those are the guys that we should be comparing Harper to.

[ToddGack]

Since you asked and it’s raining... Yes, He is seeing pitches that are quite different.

I looked up the percentages of pitches each player is getting inside the strike zone. I set the limit at an arbitrary 140 Plate appearances. Ranking (by lowest rate) in parentheses:

Trout 43.6% of pitches in zone (143/233)
Betts 42.9% (126/233)
Freeman 41.3 % (66/233)
Altuve 41.0 % (52/233)
Harper 38.2 % (9/233)

And the range for all 233 batters was 37-48%. So Harper is low and the difference between him and the others is significant.

And it’s not like the others are getting better pitches because they have better plate discipline. The only one on that list that is walking at a higher rate than Harper is Trout, and it’s pretty close (19.2% vs 18.4%). They are 1-2 in the majors in walk rate.

I didn’t do a deeper dive to see exactly where in the zone the pitches are, but I don’t have any real reason to believe it will be significantly different (from actually looking at the pitches he gets) and because it takes too much effort.

So yeah. Harper is getting junk. More than almost anyone in baseball. And he’s turned it into a .900 OPS. He could obviously do better, but it’s just dumb to say he is bad at baseball (or even average),  selfish or whatever else we decide to project on him.
I still don’t think the Nats should tie up that much money in him. But not because he isn’t good.

I don't see the other players play every game so I can't comment on them but as long as Harper continues to swing at crap he is going to get crap to swing at.
Spend $40M on a top player/pitcher or two and a couple relievers and let some other team eat up their payroll on one player.

[bluestreak]

I don't see the other players play every game so I can't comment on them but as long as Harper continues to swing at crap he is going to get crap to swing at.
Spend $40M on a top player/pitcher or two and a couple relievers and let some other team eat up their payroll on one player.

I have on many occasions agreed with you on your second point. I do not think they should commit those dollars to Harper. If they want to give that type of money on someone, it should be Machado, who fits the Nats needs better and acknowledges the glut of talent in the OF. Or probably even better use the money for Rendon plus other needs (although I do not think Rendon will come as cheaply as people here think).

That sentiment is different than the fact that 1) Harper is getting crap to hit and despite that still performs at a high level in every metric other than BA and 2) I do not think we can make a full determination on Harper until we get our full lineup in place and can exact a penalty on pitchers for throwing him crap.

Let’s do a thought experiment. If Harper sat on more pitches and walked 75% of the time and never got a hit, would people here say he was valuable? He most assuredly would be with an OBP of .750. But no one would be happy with that. So he swings. The only thing that fixes that is protection.

[Scraps]

They were hardly hitting against the AA Os pitchers.  They need Murphy and Mighty Mouse in a bad way

Yes we do. And if it means Soto has to go back down i’m all for it.

I can’t believe how many of our guys get over their front leg while trying to hit Major League pitching???  WTF  are they learning down there and from who????  The “#1 thing” any and every good hitting instructor will teach his students is, “you must have balance” if you’re ever gonna be a consistent hitter especially as you move on to the higher levels of the game.
When you “load to hit” you must have “balance”. If you drift over more onto your front side/leg or fly open, YOU ARE A FN OUT! What doesn’t Bryce Harper understand about that??? ( “THE #1 FUNDAMENTAL OF HITTING”????)
You can move Harper around in the order or put Babe FREAKING Ruth behind him all you want and he’s still not gonna hit with any consistency without balance. Not singling out Harper because there are others doing the same thing. Turner was doing better with his balance but after a couple of homers he’s back to jumping at the pitch. Turner’s one of those guys that hits just enough homeruns to screwup his mechanics at least once a month. If Trea thinks he’s a homerun hitter and wants to swing from the ass I would move him far down in the order.
Teachers love to teach but that is sometimes impossible when you’re trying to work with a filthy rich prima-donna that thinks he has all the answers to everything.
Cannot believe how often our guys strikeout 3-4 times a game. Wow! You would think they would be more than willing to seek help to avoid such embarrassment. Geesh!

Guess we’ll have to get them tomorrow.

Go Naaaaaaaaats!

[imref]

Harper has always hit off his front foot, even when he was doing well. I remember his back foot coming off the ground in some swings. 

The guy, imho, who has always had the best balance is Zimmerman.  When I coached little league a few years ago I’d instruct parents to have their kids watch him swing. 

[Scraps]

Harper has always hit off his front foot, even when he was doing well. I remember his back foot coming off the ground in some swings. 

The guy, imho, who has always had the best balance is Zimmerman.  When I coached little league a few years ago I’d instruct parents to have their kids watch him swing.

”Hitting on your front side” is very different than “hitting against your front side”. If Harper’s back foot came off the ground that is proof he was hitting against his front side otherwise he would fall over. I know it’s confusing and that’s why for teaching purposes  I keep handy a baseball card showing Frank Thomas “hitting against his front side” with his rear foot also off the ground.
Harper often drifts than recoils during his swing somehow getting away with poor mechanics because of his talent level. So yes, Zimmerman would be a better example than Harper for teaching balance.

Congratulations on being a coach and mentoring young people. Awesome! 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Trout gets more pitches in the strike zone and walks more because his discipline is much better than Harper.  Trout is 20.4%, 9th in MLB in laying off outside pitches (O-swing%), while Harper is 28.6%, 68th in MLB.  Yes, he has a discipline problem even though he's drawing walks. he is patient (4.08 p/pa, well above average of 3.85), but not disciplined.

Betts, BTW, is 8th in MLB in laying off outside stuff at 20.2% O-Swing.  Freeman is near Bryce (28.5%). Altuve, who is a completely different hitter, is at 35.2%, but is allergic to walks and incredible at contact.

[rileyn]

From Eddie Matz:

Harper through April 30:  38 walks, 21 strikeouts

May 1 through yesterday:  9 walks, 34 strikeouts.

[NatsAllThe Way]

Well hi there, how are things?

[Ray D]

Totally disgusting.  The game made me nauseous.

[ChiliPalmer14]

In 2018:

Nats get 4.9 runs when Eaton starts, 4.2 when he doesn't.
Nats get 8.6 hits when Eaton starts, 7.8 when he doesn't.

[LoveAngelos]

I guess they were taking it slow with Adam.....was the big Dream Foundation  ball last night?????

[bluestreak]

In 2018:

Nats get 4.9 runs when Eaton starts, 4.2 when he doesn't.
Nats get 8.6 hits when Eaton starts, 7.8 when he doesn't.

Talk about small sample size...

[imref]

Were the Nats at St Yves last night?

[Scraps]

In 2018:

Nats get 4.9 runs when Eaton starts, 4.2 when he doesn't.
Nats get 8.6 hits when Eaton starts, 7.8 when he doesn't.

Small sample size but it still tells me Trea Turner needs to do better than a .250 average ESPECIALLY WITH HIS SPEED. For goodness sake he should be able to bunt for a .400 average!?!

Eaton is certainly our best option at leadoff  but Turner can do better by putting down a few more bunts and eliminating his long loose swing and the big leg-kick for a more compact stroke. Like I’ve said before, Turner hits just enough homers to keep himself in trouble/and in a slump. If he wants to continue swinging from the ass I’d move him towards the end of the lineup to share that spot with Michael A..

It’s plain and simple around here - when our leadoff hitter goes, THE NATS GO. .250 with 130-150 strikeouts is not what we want at the top of the lineup. Turner needs to do better.

[hotshot]

The team collectively is hitting .236. A lot of underachievers on offense, not just Bryce.

Also, not unique to the Nationals. I joked before by saying this season is reminiscent of 1968 when rules changes had to be implemented to bring offense back into the game. Still, it does have some similarity.

As Ray Knight sagely said, hitters are simply not up there at the plate maximizing their chances of making contact. If a pitcher can't average at least a K per inning, he's doing something wrong. Golden sombreros are commonplace across all teams, or so it seems.

[bluestreak]

Small sample size but it still tells me Trea Turner needs to do better than a .250 average ESPECIALLY WITH HIS SPEED. For goodness sake he should be able to bunt for a .400 average!?!

Eaton is certainly our best option at leadoff  but Turner can do better by putting down a few more bunts and eliminating his long loose swing and the big leg-kick for a more compact stroke. Like I’ve said before, Turner hits just enough homers to keep himself in trouble/and in a slump. If he wants to continue swinging from the ass I’d move him towards the end of the lineup to share that spot with Michael A..

It’s plain and simple around here - when our leadoff hitter goes, THE NATS GO. .250 with 130-150 strikeouts is not what we want at the top of the lineup. Turner needs to do better.

Turner has a .340 on base percentage. Eaton is better, but not by much. He was a .359 career OBP. I used his career number because he has so few PA in the past two years. That’s a difference of 13 times on base over an entire season.
If Eaton continues to get on base 40 percent of the time, sure, he’s the best option. But he has a lot of data to show he’s not that over the long term.
I think Eaton is probably the best option anyway, but Turner is fine. 

As for the other stuff, Trea Turner is not the first really fast person in baseball. He’s not even the fastest player currently in the majors (he’s close). If it were easy for someone to “bunt for a .400 average” it would have been done by now.

I love how all the folks on here think that they have unlocked some key to increasing performance that the player, the slew of coaches and an entire organization has not realized or is just too collectively dumb to implement. And they get this all from just watching on TV...

[Scraps]

Turner has a .340 on base percentage. Eaton is better, but not by much. He was a .359 career OBP. I used his career number because he has so few PA in the past two years. That’s a difference of 13 times on base over an entire season.
If Eaton continues to get on base 40 percent of the time, sure, he’s the best option. But he has a lot of data to show he’s not that over the long term.
I think Eaton is probably the best option anyway, but Turner is fine. 

As for the other stuff, Trea Turner is not the first really fast person in baseball. He’s not even the fastest player currently in the majors (he’s close). If it were easy for someone to “bunt for a .400 average” it would have been done by now.

I love how all the folks on here think that they have unlocked some key to increasing performance that the player, the slew of coaches and an entire organization has not realized or is just too collectively dumb to implement. And they get this all from just watching on TV...

Guess you’re another one of those Ivy Leaguers that takes every word literally and then puts a spin on it to belittle that poster.
I’m here to simply talk Baseball and give my “opinion” on situations within the game and our team as I see them with other Nats fans. I’m certainly not here to boast myself or my opinion any better than the next guy. I’ll give my opinion from my background in baseball then discuss whatever comes of it WITHOUT belittling anybody.
Only a dumbass would calculate from what I said above that I felt Turner should bunt every time he has an at-bat.  That being said, I know you’re no dumbass so what’s the REAL PROBLEM???

Go Nats !!!

[bluestreak]

Guess you’re another one of those Ivy Leaguers that takes every word literally and then puts a spin on it to belittle that poster.
I’m here to simply talk Baseball and give my “opinion” on situations within the game and our team as I see them with other Nats fans. I’m certainly not here to boast myself or my opinion any better than the next guy. I’ll give my opinion from my background in baseball then discuss whatever comes of it WITHOUT belittling anybody.
Only a dumbass would calculate from what I said above that I felt Turner should bunt every time he has an at-bat.  That being said, I know you’re no dumbass so what’s the REAL PROBLEM???

Go Nats !!!

You stated your opinion, I stated mine. You said Turner isn’t a good leadoff hitter, I said he is. You backed up your opinion with things you have seen and your baseball background. I backed up mine with data.

I take a LOT of grief on here about quoting stats and how I don’t really know anything about baseball and just parrot stuff that I hear on the internet. A LOT.
So you must have quite the thin skin if you can’t take me questioning your take to baseball analysis when everyone questions mine.

Anyway, I didn’t say that you said that Turner should bunt every time. I did say that your assertion that it would help the team is likely incorrect because 1)if this were the case, more people would do it and 2) bunting a baseball in fair territory and reaching base is difficult, which is why number 1 is true. Bunting is down because people also realize that in the long run it doesn’t create as many runs as swinging does.

Also, I didn’t sniff the Ivy League.

[Ray D]

Guess you’re another one of those Ivy Leaguers that takes every word literally and then puts a spin on it to belittle that poster.
I’m here to simply talk Baseball and give my “opinion” on situations within the game and our team as I see them with other Nats fans. I’m certainly not here to boast myself or my opinion any better than the next guy. I’ll give my opinion from my background in baseball then discuss whatever comes of it WITHOUT belittling anybody.
Only a dumbass would calculate from what I said above that I felt Turner should bunt every time he has an at-bat.  That being said, I know you’re no dumbass so what’s the REAL PROBLEM???

Go Nats !!!

What part of that post was belittling?  Seriously.

[hotshot]

We don't need Trea to hit .400, as nice as that would be. I'd settle for a solid .290.

[Scraps]

You stated your opinion, I stated mine. You said Turner isn’t a good leadoff hitter, .........”

What I said was, Turner needs to do better than a .250 batting average. Also “IMO” by laying down an occasional bunt here and there maybe the corners (1B & 3B) cheat in a bit enabling  him to hit a few of those ground balls past them instead of being just another out.
I’m gonna cut to the chase the bottom line is this, if Turner doesn’t establish plate discipline with a more compact stroke by years end, he will AGAIN flounder in the Playoffs versus the better pitching and smarter teams. Of course this is just an opinion from a couch potato so take it at face value.

And yes, i’m a very thin skinned Italian especially when youse people are critical of my age, my weight, or my homemade manicotti. GOT IT?!??...  good! 

Go Nats/Caps!!!

 

[hotshot]

I understand how pitching, and other things, are very different these days but still, how did we get this far away from hitters like Yogi Berra (noted for swinging at balls out of the strike zone, he averaged just 1 strikeout per every 20 PAs); and Nellie Fox (1 K every 47 times he stepped into the box).

Ted Williams struck out roughly one time every 14 PAs and Joe D even less at something like one K every 21. For DiMaggio, that means he would average striking out one time in a 4 game series, if that.

Bryce strikes out once every 5 times up and the rest of the current roster isn't much better. Nor is the rest of MLB! Andrelton Simmons sets the standard for contact these days, striking out only once in roughly every 11 plate appearances.

[UMDNats]

I understand how pitching, and other things, are very different these days but still, how did we get this far away from hitters like Yogi Berra (noted for swinging at balls out of the strike zone, he averaged just 1 strikeout per every 20 PAs); and Nellie Fox (1 K every 47 times he stepped into the box).

Ted Williams struck out roughly one time every 14 PAs and Joe D even less at something like one K every 21. For DiMaggio, that means he would average striking out one time in a 4 game series, if that.

Bryce strikes out once every 5 times up and the rest of the current roster isn't much better. Nor is the rest of MLB! Andrelton Simmons sets the standard for contact these days, striking out only once in roughly every 11 plate appearances.

there are a lot of factors, i think comparing different eras that are so far apart is really tough and apples to oranges.

pitchers throw more heat, are looking for strikeouts more, and hitters have developed a mindset that a strikeout is not any worse than a regular out. sure, there are situations where a strikeout is obviously worse, but there's a thought that it's worth swinging away on the 1 in 50 chance you hit a home run, which is better than the maybe 1 in 200 chance a weak ground ball sneaks through or results in an error. definitely a mindset thing with common hitters, and i don't really disagree with it. but pitchers have also developed a lot, so it's not just one thing.