Darnell Coles

[nobleisthyname]

Our marginal increase in OPS is due to Lane Thomas far exceeding his metrics and Rizzo signing Candelario.

If you're going to mention Thomas exceeding his underlying metrics you should probably also point out that Ruiz is greatly underperforming his underlying metrics.

I'm not a big Coles fan either but it does seem like you're ignoring every favorable point and only focusing on the negatives (which, admittedly, there is quite a lot of).

[blue911]

If you're going to mention Thomas exceeding his underlying metrics you should probably also point out that Ruiz is greatly underperforming his underlying metrics.

I'm not a big Coles fan either but it does seem like you're ignoring every favorable point and only focusing on the negatives (which, admittedly, there is quite a lot of).

Probably because it’s like looking at yesterday’s box score and feeling good that Smith homered.

[nobleisthyname]

Probably because it’s like looking at yesterday’s box score and feeling good that Smith homered.

We knew this team would suck this year. The advice I heard over and over again is it's not about our win-loss record, it's about watching the young players develop. I don't understand why this thinking doesn't apply on an individual player level as well. I'd much rather see a young guy go 0-4 with each out hit hard over going 4-4 off nothing but dribblers and bloop singles.

[Natsinpwc]

Coles needs to be judged on the progress of Ruiz, Abrams, and Garcia.  They are the only three that matter, and all three are a tough watch at the plate.  I agree with slate on this one.

That’s a fair point. I just think as outsiders we don’t what he is trying to get them to do and if they are ignoring it or just can’t implement changes. Or maybe he is teaching them the wrong things.  I guess the only way to tell for sure is fire him and see what happens next year. Maybe that will happen. I just don’t think it will make much difference. Sink or swim for these guys.

[nobleisthyname]

Looking a bit beyond the surface level stats here's how the young guys are doing compared to last season:

Ruiz
2022 Hard Hit Rate - 32.3% (11th percentile)
2023 Hard Hit Rate - 37.1% (30th percentile)

2022 Barrel Rate - 3.7% (11th percentile)
2023 Barrel Rate - 8.3% (50th percentile)

2022 Average Launch Angle - 14.9
2023 Average Launch Angle - 14.5

2022 xSLG - .403 (53rd percentile)
2023 xSLG - .475 (79th percentile)

2022 xWOBA - .328 (66th percentile)
2023 xWOBA - .351 (76th percentile)

García
2022 Hard Hit Rate - 36.7% (29th percentile)
2023 Hard Hit Rate - 38.4% (37th percentile)

2022 Barrel Rate - 7.5% (47th percentile)
2023 Barrel Rate - 6.8% (38th percentile)

2022 Average Launch Angle - 5.5
2023 Average Launch Angle - 2.9

2022 xSLG - .409 (57th percentile)
2023 xSLG - .425 (56th percentile)

2022 BB Rate - 2.9% (1st percentile)
2023 BB Rate - 5.3% (11th percentile)

2022 K Rate - 22.3% (42nd percentile)
2023 K Rate - 11.9% (95th percentile)

2022 xWOBA - .305 (37th percentile)
2023 xWOBA - .323 (47th percentile)

Abrams
2022 Hard Hit Rate - 30.7% (N/A)
2023 Hard Hit Rate - 37.1% (30th percentile)

2022 Barrel Rate - 2.1% (N/A)
2023 Barrel Rate - 5.7% (24th percentile)

2022 Average Launch Angle - 6.8
2023 Average Launch Angle - 10.8

2022 xSLG - .316 (N/A)
2023 xSLG - .369 (23rd percentile)

2022 xWOBA - .266 (N/A)
2023 xWOBA - .285 (10th percentile)

[Natsinpwc]

Thanks for posting those stats. A mixed bag. Some young guys need time. Gray was bad last year and has been very good this year. Need patience.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I’m sure Candelario’s major improvement from last year is all on him also and despite Coles’ incompetence!

it's not an improvement. It's a reversion to his past performance level. If he were to hit better than his track record, then there might be a case for pointing to him as a good case for Coles.  Better case is Thomas, who is exceeding what anyone thought he could do.

[Slateman]

If you're going to mention Thomas exceeding his underlying metrics you should probably also point out that Ruiz is greatly underperforming his underlying metrics.

I'm not a big Coles fan either but it does seem like you're ignoring every favorable point and only focusing on the negatives (which, admittedly, there is quite a lot of).

What favorable points? Candelario is doing what he did before last season. Thomas is great. Everyone else is worse. And we're at a point with Ruiz and Garcia that we should be seeing marketed improvements. Garcia especially.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ruiz is a very interesting  case. I wonder why he is underperforming the x stats. He's should be racking  up big stats, but he's not getting the payoff.

[Natsinpwc]

What favorable points? Candelario is doing what he did before last season. Thomas is great. Everyone else is worse. And we're at a point with Ruiz and Garcia that we should be seeing marketed improvements. Garcia especially.

Pretty obvious Candy was broken when he got here and Coles fixed him. Also made Thomas better. See I can spin it any way I like! 

Can you provide some exact timeline when we should expect improvement from young guys? You seem to have an arbitrary timeline.

As I recall you wrote Gray off after last season and said he was not fixed in spring training this year.

 You also said Abrams should be in the minors so not clear why you are blaming Coles for that.  That’s on Rizzo then for rushing him and not sending him back down

Just wait until the end of the year and see where everyone is then. Batting coaches are a dime a dozen for good reason.

[nobleisthyname]

And we're at a point with Ruiz and Garcia that we should be seeing marketed improvements. Garcia especially.

Players go literally entire seasons getting "lucky" or "unlucky". Absolutely no reason to write them off now, especially when their underlying metrics look good (more so the case for Ruiz than García).

I get the impression that a lot of people would prefer the young players to be going the Thomas route, good surface numbers but much less impressive underlying metrics. But this season does not matter. Going forward, it's much more likely all the players will regress to their underlying metrics, for good and for bad, and as such we should be preferring the players to be showing promising underlying metrics.

[Natsinpwc]

it's not an improvement. It's a reversion to his past performance level. If he were to hit better than his track record, then there might be a case for pointing to him as a good case for Coles.  Better case is Thomas, who is exceeding what anyone thought he could do.

Whatever you call it he was bad last season which points to some issue with his approach or swing. And the problem has been solved. At least for this year.  Lots of guys have started out with good stats for a few years and then hit a wall. It was a good signing by Rizzo. He knew Darnell was the guy to fix him.

[nobleisthyname]

Also I meant to comment on your Kevin Long/Phillies comment, at least on Marsh.

He had an insanely hot April, and has been lousy since. Performance wise, he's been getting worse, not better under Long's tutelage.

[Natsinpwc]

Players go literally entire seasons getting "lucky" or "unlucky". Absolutely no reason to write them off now, especially when their underlying metrics look good (more so the case for Ruiz than García).

I get the impression that a lot of people would prefer the young players to be going the Thomas route, good surface numbers but much less impressive underlying metrics. But this season does not matter. Going forward, it's much more likely all the players will regress to their underlying metrics, for good and for bad, and as such we should be preferring the players to be showing promising underlying metrics.

Amen. How about we give these guys a few seasons and see where they are after that. It’s not like the team is in a playoff race.

[Natsinpwc]

Also I meant to comment on your Kevin Long/Phillies comment, at least on Marsh.

He had an insanely hot April, and has been lousy since. Performance wise, he's been getting worse, not better under Long's tutelage.

Bohm has also reverted from his improvement at the end of last season. Maybe yesterday will get him going.  Stott is a work in progress.

No reason also to say that Schwarber and Turner have suddenly gotten older.  They are not injured. Just slow starts probably.

Pache seems the major success story so far but it’s a small sample size. 

Even a good hitting coach can only do so much.  To blame Coles for all the Nationals woes is overly simplistic.

[Slateman]

Pretty obvious Candy was broken when he got here and Coles fixed him. Also made Thomas better. See I can spin it any way I like! 

Can you provide some exact timeline when we should expect improvement from young guys? You seem to have an arbitrary timeline.

As I recall you wrote Gray off after last season and said he was not fixed in spring training this year.

 You also said Abrams should be in the minors so not clear why you are blaming Coles for that.  That’s on Rizzo then for rushing him and not sending him back down

Just wait until the end of the year and see where everyone is then. Batting coaches are a dime a dozen for good reason.

Except Candelario did exactly this for two seasons in Detroit before getting hurt in 2022.

I'd say over the course of 2 seasons, we should see improvement. Garcia is approaching 1100 plate appearances in at the big leage level and is still a below average hitter. Ruiz is in his second big league season and is getting worse. These guys arent even showing flashes, they're just consitently bad at the plate.

[nobleisthyname]

Bohm has also reverted from his improvement at the end of last season. Maybe yesterday will get him going.  Stott is a work in progress.

No reason also to say that Schwarber and Turner have suddenly gotten older.  They are not injured. Just slow starts probably.

Pache seems the major success story so far but it’s a small sample size. 

Even a good hitting coach can only do so much.  To blame Coles for all the Nationals woes is overly simplistic.

Yeah, I'm definitely being a bit contrary for the sake of arguing. I do like Long a lot better than Coles, I just don't think it's entirely accurate to say the players aren't improving/are getting worse.

[Slateman]

Bohm has also reverted from his improvement at the end of last season. Maybe yesterday will get him going.  Stott is a work in progress.

No reason also to say that Schwarber and Turner have suddenly gotten older.  They are not injured. Just slow starts probably.

Pache seems the major success story so far but it’s a small sample size. 

Even a good hitting coach can only do so much.  To blame Coles for all the Nationals woes is overly simplistic.

Schwarber and Turner are both 30.

Stott and Marsh are significantly better than last year. Bohm has a 103 wRC+, which is an improvement over last year (in fact, Long took a 75 wRC+ hitter and turned him into a 103 wRC+). Pache is actually a major league hitter now.

If we had this level of improvement in our three young hitters, we'd be having serious conversations about picking up a couple bullpen options and taking a run at the wild card.

[Slateman]

Players go literally entire seasons getting "lucky" or "unlucky". Absolutely no reason to write them off now, especially when their underlying metrics look good (more so the case for Ruiz than García).

I get the impression that a lot of people would prefer the young players to be going the Thomas route, good surface numbers but much less impressive underlying metrics. But this season does not matter. Going forward, it's much more likely all the players will regress to their underlying metrics, for good and for bad, and as such we should be preferring the players to be showing promising underlying metrics.

Yea, the shift is gone. I dont buy "unlucky." Not when we're going on season two of declining performance.

Maybe the scouts were wrong. Maybe Ruiz is a bad hitter. But this is the third time Coles has been a MLB hitting coach and the third time it has resulted in poor performance.

This season is about development. And so far, the cornerstone of our franchise's rebuild is not developing.

[nobleisthyname]

Do you think Ruiz would have better success if he stopped hitting the ball harder than last year? Maybe hit less barrels?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

As for Candelario, would it shock anyone if I were to say his bad year was in part an underperformance of his peripherals and his better year this year is a bit of an overperformance? Nah. 

More to the point, it's his defense that has improved over his pre-2022 track record in Detroit, not his offense.

[Natsinpwc]

Schwarber and Turner are both 30.

And so will Candy be in November! 

[Natsinpwc]

Candy played in 125 games in 2021. I have a hard time chalking his poor performance up to injuries. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/03/08/jeimer-candelario-dominican-republic-wbc/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Candy played in 125 games in 2021. I have a hard time chalking his poor performance up to injuries. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/03/08/jeimer-candelario-dominican-republic-wbc/

2021 was a good year. do you mean 2022

[Slateman]

Candy played in 125 games in 2021. I have a hard time chalking his poor performance up to injuries. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/03/08/jeimer-candelario-dominican-republic-wbc/

He had a hurt shoulder in 2022.

He had a .795 OPS in 2021. He currently has an .805. Congratulations to Darnell Coles for getting Candelario back to where he was before he hurt his shoulder.