The Weather (2017)

[Natsinpwc]

Damn, so much for renting a canoe at Flamingo in the next decade and a half 

Should be some great travel deals this winter. The hotel room however may not have walls and a roof.

[DPMOmaha]

Should be some great travel deals this winter. The hotel room however may not have walls and a roof.

Too soon.

[bluestreak]

And from what it appears like on this map, significant storm/rain events for Atlanta and Nashville.

[imref]

11 AM NHC update shows Irma maintaining Cat-4 strength until landfall, coming ashore at at least 150 MPH winds.  It could still strengthen.

Hurricane warnings shifted north too.  This is a pretty slow mover too, 24-36 hours of hurricane force winds for a large area of FL.

[Minty Fresh]

11 AM NHC update shows Irma maintaining Cat-4 strength until landfall, coming ashore at at least 150 MPH winds.  It could still strengthen.

Hurricane warnings shifted north too.  This is a pretty slow mover too, 24-36 hours of hurricane force winds for a large area of FL.

(Image removed from quote.)

I did a little research this morning to try and recall Hurricane Andrew (I was 21 at the time).  Lowest recorded barometric pressure on record and they're saying Irma is more powerful.

On a side note, I had forgotten how bad it was for Louisiana and Mississippi for Andrew.  Everyone always talks about Florida since that's where the records were broken.

[imref]

I did a little research this morning to try and recall Hurricane Andrew (I was 21 at the time).  Lowest recorded barometric pressure on record and they're saying Irma is more powerful.

On a side note, I had forgotten how bad it was for Louisiana and Mississippi for Andrew.  Everyone always talks about Florida since that's where the records were broken.

Irma is a much much bigger storm than Andrew.  Andrew was devastating, destroying something like 125k homes.  Irma will be a test of the building codes that were enacted after Andrew.

[Natsinpwc]

Usually once they hit the mainland the storms track north and east. This one projected to track north and west for a while.

[OldChelsea]

Title of thread: 'The Weather (2017)'
---
...there certainly has been a lot of it this year.

[Irma now down to 'only' 150mph with Jose rushing in from the east...holy moley]

[DPMOmaha]

The current track I'm seeing has it reaching land on the south west side. That would largely spare Miami, right?

[Minty Fresh]

The current track I'm seeing has it reaching land on the south west side. That would largely spare Miami, right?

Somewhat.  Storm surge would still likely be pretty bad (counter-clockwise rotation) and the rain is usually heavier on the eastern sides of hurricanes.

[DPMOmaha]

I see.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

From a human standpoint, going right up the middle through the everglades is probably the best (as in least-bad) case scenario.  From an ecological perspective, not so much.  The mangroves along the S. Dade coast never really recovered from Andrew. 

[imref]

The current track I'm seeing has it reaching land on the south west side. That would largely spare Miami, right?

Miami could still be in the range of hurricane force winds, but the storm surge should be lessoned, the biggest surge right now is forecast for the SW coast.

According to posts on the Reddit live feed, Irma is again at Cat-5 strength, so is Jose.  Two Cat-5 storms in the same year is rare, two back-to-back at the same time is unheard of.

And the head of the EPA said earlier it's too soon to be talking about the role climate change could be playing in these storms.  Sigh...

[spidernat]

Title of thread: 'The Weather (2017)'
---
...there certainly has been a lot of it this year.

[Irma now down to 'only' 150mph with Jose rushing in from the east...holy moley]

Wouldn't have had to worry about Jose so much if they had erected Trump's wall.

[HalfSmokes]

The early 30s has multiple category 5 storms two years in a row, one data point doesn't prove a theory- a few more years of these or if scientis can show a link between sea temperatures and these storms, then you have something, but arm chair science backing up global warming is just as bad as armchair science denying it

[imref]

Latest Euro shows an even further shift west, sparing Miami from a direct hit but instead putting the brunt of the storm over the keys, and into Naples / Ft. Meyers.

[HalfSmokes]

Good bye key west

[skippy1999]

The early 30s has multiple category 5 storms two years in a row, one data point doesn't prove a theory- a few more years of these or if scientis can show a link between sea temperatures and these storms, then you have something, but arm chair science backing up global warming is just as bad as armchair science denying it

The east side of the storm is the worst, Miami is still in a lot of trouble but it keeps edging to the west, I do hope it doesn't end up in the Gulf or I'm trouble

[skippy1999]

My daughter's in-laws have a house on a canal on Islamorada, possibly not for much longer

[imref]

Wouldn't have had to worry about Jose so much if they had erected Trump's wall.

[mitlen]

The early 30s has multiple category 5 storms two years in a row, one data point doesn't prove a theory- a few more years of these or if scientis can show a link between sea temperatures and these storms, then you have something, but arm chair science backing up global warming is just as bad as armchair science denying it

That's a good point.    Serious question:    What is a reasonable time and/or number of heavy duty hurricanes that would give one a link?     What other factors should be included?    Rising sea water?    Melting ice caps?      Thanks

[Slateman]

The early 30s has multiple category 5 storms two years in a row, one data point doesn't prove a theory- a few more years of these or if scientis can show a link between sea temperatures and these storms, then you have something, but arm chair science backing up global warming is just as bad as armchair science denying it

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/a-sizzling-gulf-of-mexico-could-bring-more-spring-storms/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071603/full
http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf
http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Webster2005b.pdf


They've been making this link for a while.

[HalfSmokes]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/a-sizzling-gulf-of-mexico-could-bring-more-spring-storms/
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071603/full
http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf
http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Webster2005b.pdf


They've been making this link for a while.

Did you even read the first link?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Latest Euro shows an even further shift west, sparing Miami from a direct hit but instead putting the brunt of the storm over the keys, and into Naples / Ft. Meyers.

(Image removed from quote.)

I think my cousin and my (other) cousin's husband left Miami Beach for Naples with my 90+ year old uncle who had 2 strokes a couple months ago.

[HalfSmokes]

That's a good point.    Serious question:    What is a reasonable time and/or number of heavy duty hurricanes that would give one a link?     What other factors should be included?    Rising sea water?    Melting ice caps?      Thanks

I'm a fan of leaving it to the guys with the phds who've spent their lives studying the topic. It seems like the consensus is shifting weather patterns and more storm activity, but as far as hurricanes go, anyone reading a pattern into that data set needs to read a random walk down Wall Street


https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity