Games line up as follows:
James Paxton v. Patrick Corbin
Landon Knack v. Jake Irvin
Yoshinobu Yamamoto v. Mackenzie Gore
That Thursday 4:05 game is the closest to a battle of aces, while the Wednesday night game is a repeat of a pitchers duel from the Nats visit to LA. But first we must endure a Corbination situation in game 1 against Paxton, who has gotten wins and a low ERA in 3 starts / 16 IP, but who has an astounding 7.88 BB/9, isn't suppressing homers, and has a FIP of 6.21.
Along these lines, which pitcher do you want taking the mound:
A: 14.7 K%, 0.71 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9, WHIP 1.50
16 IPB: 14.3%, 1.88 K/BB, 1.21 HR/9, WHIP 1.97
22.1 IPThe spoiler hides the IP, which is a giveaway. Corbin's FIP is more than 1.5 runs lower than Paxton so far. BABIP has a role in Paxton's low ERA and Corbin's high one - .190 vs. .418.
Knack had a pretty good debut against the Nats, giving up just 2 runs over 5 IP. 4Ks, 1 BB, 1 HR among the TTOs. In the minors, his GB rate is only around 35%, but he got the Nats to hit grounders in his first start. Per FG, he's their 23rd ranked prospect with a mid-4s projected ERA.
Knack makes heavy use of a mid-80s cutter/slider that he commands the best of all his pitches. His changeup, relegated to about 13% usage in 2023, is his best bat-misser from a rate standpoint, tailing in at around 82 mph, but Knack’s feel for it is less consistent. The 2024 change in physicality here is interesting and has coincided with a velo bump that has given Knack average velocity again.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-49-prospects-2024/After a rough first start in Korea, Yamamoto has been going 5-6 innings his next 4 times out. Throw out his first start, and you see the reasons he's regarded as a star - 4 GS, 21 IP, 33.3 K%, 4.8 BB%, 0.95 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, 2.94 FIP. Tough draw for Gore again, but to tell you how good Gore has been, his FIP is lower than Yamamoto (2.36), and his K% is 31.8%. Got bled to death in one rough inning against Houston, which may be just "stuff happens."
While the Dodgers have something of an awesome top of the order with Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, and Muncy, Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez would all fit in most teams' top 3 but for Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman, 7, 8, and 9 are lot less fearsome. W/r/t the outfield, it's been criticized as underperforming even with Teoscar's good start hitting. A week ago there was this:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-outfield-has-been-very-very-bad-to-start-the-season/James Outman has taken a step back after a good rookie year, and guys like Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are past prime, and Jayson Heyward is hurt. They've called up Andy Pages (pronounce en espanol) after a hot start mashing in AAA, but so far he's not duplicated it in MLB.
So, does Paxton perform at his peripherals? Does Corbin get normal luck on contact? Will the Nats Get the Knack second time around? Will the dodgers be confused with the two Jakes in CF and at P? Can Mac match a guy with a 12 year, $325 million contract? Proof will be on the field.
Go Nats!
