How Would You Grade the Rebuild So Far?

[IanRubbish]

I give it a D-

-No legit pitching prospects
-Home grown prospects continue to disappoint
-No accountability for Rizzo who has managed this poorly
-Way off pace compared to the last five season tank
-Only reason it's not an F is James Wood

[Five Banners]

I give it a D-

-No legit pitching prospects
-Home grown prospects continue to disappoint
-No accountability for Rizzo who has managed this poorly
-Way off pace compared to the last five season tank
-Only reason it's not an F is James Wood

Not much leaps to mind as far as disagreeing, especially since we don’t actually know whether there is actually a rebuild rather than placeholding until the speculated estate certification by the IRS takes place, and then the committee potentially treads water, tries to sell again, etc.

One might suspect that when the stated goal was signing a starting pitcher and none was that they might not actually be rebuilding as much as biding time. Getting nothing done on the CJ Abrams contract front might also be telling.

[HalfSmokes]

Not much leaps to mind as far as disagreeing, especially since we don’t actually know whether there is actually a rebuild rather than placeholding until the speculated estate certification by the IRS takes place, and then the committee potentially treads water, tries to sell again, etc.

One might suspect that when the stated goal was signing a starting pitcher and none was that they might not actually be rebuilding as much as biding time. Getting nothing done on the CJ Abrams contract front might also be telling.

That's the issue. Right now, there is no difference between how our front office is behaving and how a front office like the Pirates behaves. Maybe we're in a rebuild and maybe we've just shifted to owners who no longer care about winning

[imref]

Gore is legit. Cavalli is legit. House, Crews, and Wood all have all-star potential. CJ is already there.

Right now I'd give the Soto trade as high as a grade as the Trea Turner trade, but it's impossible give an overall grade to the rebuild until we see these guys perform in the majors.

[Natsinpwc]

Gore is legit. Cavalli is legit. House, Crews, and Wood all have all-star potential. CJ is already there.

Right now I'd give the Soto trade as high as a grade as the Trea Turner trade, but it's impossible give an overall grade to the rebuild until we see these guys perform in the majors.

Not sure why you think the Turner trade was good. We have a back end starting pitcher and a below average catcher.  They’re about 1.0 WAR per year players. Disappointing.  The Soto trade is already better.

I give a c+.  Still seems like the organization is behind the times. 

[Senatorswin]

We'll know a lot more next year. If our outfield is Hassell III, Crews and wood, our infield of House, Abrams, Garcis/Lipscomb, and Morales and our starters Gore, Gray, Rutledge, Cavalli and a free agent it will be a success.

[zimm_da_kid]

Turner with a year and a half of control is the type of guy you trade for a top 10 overall prospect.  It would’ve been ok if we got the dodgers package for just Turner.  Scherzer should have been worth another top 100 guy too because even though he only had half a season, he’s a freaking bulldog.

Thor only things that rizzo got right was the Soto return (still early but I like what I see) and pulling lane out of Lester.


Still feel confident we’ll pull together a top quality OF from the pool of wood/crews/vaquero/hassel/green/Pinckney

[varoadking]

Not sure why you think the Turner trade was good. We have a back end starting pitcher and a below average catcher.  They’re about 1.0 WAR per year players. Disappointing.  The Soto trade is already better.

I give a c+.  Still seems like the organization is behind the times.

Maybe he meant when we got Turner and Ross for Steven Souza and Travis Ott.  Now THAT was a good trade...

[IanRubbish]

Gore is legit. Cavalli is legit. House, Crews, and Wood all have all-star potential. CJ is already there.

Right now I'd give the Soto trade as high as a grade as the Trea Turner trade, but it's impossible give an overall grade to the rebuild until we see these guys perform in the majors.

Cavalli turns 26 this year and has never gotten his BB/9 under 4, and doubt he will do that when he comes up and learns the Hickey Shuffle.  Never mind, Stras, Jordan Zimmermann at 26 had a 2.94 ERA and 3.6 KK/B.  Gio at 26 had a sub-3 ERA and gave up just 9 HRs in 199 IP.  Gore looks like a mid-rotation starter, but has clearly been taught the Hickey Shuffle, which isn't helping him. 

The haul that was received for Scherzer and Trea is remarkably underwhelming with Gray and Keibert.  Yes, CJ and Wood were great to get, but when trading an elite hitter with 2.5 years before FA, you'd expect to get something.

The lack of pitching prospects is a serious issue, compounded by the facts that Hickey is still here, and that Rizzo cares about more covering his butt and being a mouthpiece than taking responsibility for terrible pitching draft & development and making the adjustments needed to improve that. 

[imref]

Not sure why you think the Turner trade was good. We have a back end starting pitcher and a below average catcher.  They’re about 1.0 WAR per year players. Disappointing.  The Soto trade is already better.

I give a c+.  Still seems like the organization is behind the times. 

sorry, i meant the trade that "brought" us Turner.

[Natsinpwc]

sorry, i meant the trade that "brought" us Turner.

Ahhhhh. 

[nobleisthyname]

Turner with a year and a half of control is the type of guy you trade for a top 10 overall prospect.  It would’ve been ok if we got the dodgers package for just Turner.  Scherzer should have been worth another top 100 guy too because even though he only had half a season, he’s a freaking bulldog.

Thor only things that rizzo got right was the Soto return (still early but I like what I see) and pulling lane out of Lester.


Still feel confident we’ll pull together a top quality OF from the pool of wood/crews/vaquero/hassel/green/Pinckney

Ruiz and Gray were both top 100 prospects in 2021 (around 50), though neither were top-10 admittedly.

[IanRubbish]

Ruiz and Gray were both top 100 prospects in 2021 (around 50), though neither were top-10 admittedly.

Part of a GM's job is to assess who's overvalued/undervalued, not just rely on journalist rankings.  Not only did Rizzo get ripped off, he tried to cover his butt by giving Keibert that ridiculous contract extension.

[nobleisthyname]

Part of a GM's job is to assess who's overvalued/undervalued, not just rely on journalist rankings.  Not only did Rizzo get ripped off, he tried to cover his butt by giving Keibert that ridiculous contract extension.

I agree that trade is underwhelming in hindsight. I've just seen a lot of people act like Ruiz and Gray weren't considered top 100 prospects at the time of the trade (not that that is what zimm_da_kid was saying).

[nobleisthyname]

Anyway I would probably give the rebuild a C C- so far with the Turner/Scherzer trade and Elijah Green draft pick being the biggest blunders while the Soto trade is looking very promising.

But I also think it's a year too early to really judge the rebuild. If the Nats aren't contending for at least a wild card spot next season then I'll be lowering the grade to a D or F.

Edit: Changed the grade to a C- as Rizzo's original plan was to "retool" rather than rebuild. Whether that was just PR speak or a legitimate strategy that just failed it does mean we have a lot of players who are supposed to be part of the next core that will be hitting free agency faster than you might be expecting. That means it will be harder to keep the next window open once it does actually open.

[zimm_da_kid]

Part of a GM's job is to assess who's overvalued/undervalued, not just rely on journalist rankings.  Not only did Rizzo get ripped off, he tried to cover his butt by giving Keibert that ridiculous contract extension.

Beyond overvalued/undervalued, there are lots of prospects who are top prospects because they have a high probability of being slightly above average.  Part of the GMs job is weighing those guys vs boom or bust type guys.

[Smithian]

C. Maybe B-.

I'd have considered an amicable breakup with Rizzo after 2021 in a sane world as punishment for letting the team get so broken outside of the main core, but he wasn't, so it is what it is.

Going backwards, the Soto trade seemed to be have been as good a return as could be hoped. CJ Abrams will bd our SS for a longtime and may still have some ceiling to explore. James Wood is an elite prospect now hitting at the AAA level. Gore may end up an ace. You can't replace Soto, but that trade overall looks as well as it could be knowing prospects are a crapshoot and he gambled on an injured pitcher.

I don't know how to grade the Scherzer-Turner trade. I felt at the time the idea was to get those salaries off the books to free up a reload in the near future while Juan Soto was on the team. In that case, getting a passable starter at catcher and a young pitcher you could win with as a mid-to-back of the rotation arm was a fair return. Instead, we realized the Lerner family was in limbo. In hindsight, I think we'd have been better looking for bunch of prospect returns instead of a couple guys near the majors. I really don't know if we can blame Rizzo here. Not his fault ownership is a mess. But with how things played out, a real bad trade. Just not enough.

The MLB draft remains a disaster, but Brady House and Trey Lipcomb are nice players. Going from a disaster to "something useful" in draft is improvement.

The smaller trades have a mix of fine and who cares. Lane Thomas and Riley Adams are nice pieces.

The 16-win improvement last year was really positive.

Have to think Rizzo would have liked to make a couple more additions to this team in the pitching staff. Ownership wouldn't allow it. If I have a problem today, it isn't with Rizzo, its with ownership. Go back and look at the team as it was being built going into the 2020 season pre-COVID. It feels like we're now in a half decade of austerity. It's just painful.

[IanRubbish]

Have to think Rizzo would have liked to make a couple more additions to this team in the pitching staff. Ownership wouldn't allow it.

Agree that Mini Me loves pennies more than wins, but with pitching contracts being so unpredictable, many good teams have built strong rotations without spending a fortune.   Mike Elias did it in Baltimore when the Angelos family gave him a tiny budget.

One example, look at how Alex A cobbled together the rotation in Atlanta.  Anchored by two home grown, drafted by the org prospects in Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder, and then opportunistic trades for Max Fried when he had just had TJ, and Charlie Morton and Chris Sale in their mid-late 30s.  The only Braves starter on a contract worth more than $50 million total is Strider and he gets $12.5m a year from a pre-arb extension.

The Orioles don't have a starter with a contract worth more than $16 million, and that's the one year deal they have Corbin Burnes. 

The Astros spend less on starters than the Nats!  Four of their five starters make league min, the only one who doesn't is Christian Javier, who makes all of $7 million per year, about the same as Trevor Williams.  All four are home grown draftees or international signings, none a first rounder.  Rizzo can't develop pitchers anywhere like that, and it requires a very limited budget.

With so many pitching contracts flaming out, it's better to follow the Baltimore/Atlanta/Houston model and build a great draft and development operation, not chase free agents like the Phillies and Mets.  You also don't need to draft these guys early in the first round, which is one reason why Houston and Atlanta have had sustained success for such a long period of time.  The problem isn't just the owners here, but an incompetent GM who keeps his job because he provides PR cover for the Lerners, but has no ability to draft and build a rotation the way winning teams have.

[Natsinpwc]

Astors and Braves are the exceptions. Given your definition almost every GM in the league is incompetent.  The Braves rotation has not been good the past few years. They win based on the hitting and good bullpen signings. And they are in some trouble this year. Astros seem to be the only team that has a rotation full of homegrown guys that are effective.

I was impressed with Jones pitching last night for the Pirates. Very good stuff.  And Skenes on the way.

[IanRubbish]

Astors and Braves are the exceptions.

Did you forget Baltimore all of a sudden?  Not to mention Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh...plenty of teams with effective rotations not spending.

The Nats are the exception on the downside.  Half a decade into a tank without a single legit pitching prospect and 26th in ERA. 

[Natsinpwc]

Did you look at who was right behind the Nats this year in team ERA? 

Braves were 15th last year in team ERA. 17th for starters.  They win based on hitting.

Baltimore does appear to be in good shape.

Some of the others you mention have been brutal for years.

[Natsinpwc]

If the hitting prospects mostly work out and Gore/Gray/Cavalli stay healthy you have something to build on.  There will be plenty of money to add a front line pitcher if they want.  I do think they should be looking for a top college arm this year so that gives another option.  Of course it’s an if the hitters work out also. 

Pitchers are always an injury risk.  The Braves have gone from being ranked as one of the top rotations in baseball to being a mess in a couple weeks.  Reynaldo López has been their best starter this year.  They are lucky they have Sale and Morton even if last their prime.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't know how to grade the Scherzer-Turner trade. I felt at the time the idea was to get those salaries off the books to free up a reload in the near future while Juan Soto was on the team. In that case, getting a passable starter at catcher and a young pitcher you could win with as a mid-to-back of the rotation arm was a fair return. Instead, we realized the Lerner family was in limbo. In hindsight, I think we'd have been better looking for bunch of prospect returns instead of a couple guys near the majors.

The MLB draft remains a disaster, but Brady House and Trey Lipscomb are nice players. Going from a disaster to "something useful" in draft is improvement.

The smaller trades have a mix of fine and who cares. Lane Thomas and Riley Adams are nice pieces.

the bolded point is spot on. That deal was either not honest about where the team was or a bad misjudgement of what they were getting, or both. The only way a retool might have been possible would have been if Soto were signed, and it that were the case, then dealing Turner didn't make sense. I don't know if they were deceived about how good Ruiz would be - his power exploded in AAA in 2021, and he had a good defensive reputation, but it looks like an error. I don't know what impressed them about Gray.

I'm not quite so down on the drafting since about 2018. I think Henry, Irvin, Rutledge all post-date that, as well as some nice current minor league bullpen arms. Green is a disappointment going. #5 pick shouldn't have that much bust potential. Heck, James Wood was  a second rounder. Even if you think Green's (tools - questionable contact with elite power and speed) are comparable to Wood, that's a second round pick. I'll add that even if you think that Alu is at best an MLB utility guy, that he's succeeded as much as he has as 24th round pick is good.

As for the minor deals, obviously the Thomas deal was a big success, but the payoff for the next contention window will be most likely what we trade Thomas for.

[IanRubbish]

Braves were 15th last year in team ERA. 17th for starters.  They win based on hitting.

12 teams make the playoffs, that's reasonable.  The Nats are stuck in the bottom 5 or 6 with little help on the way.  Also don't think a big boom pitching contract would change much.  Makes sense to put the $ to hitters, but at some point have to develop guys who can make it through 6 and keep the pitch count at 100, even with a 4-something ERA.  This org hasn't been able to do that with anyone and there's no one in the system showing any potential to do so.

[varoadking]

As for the minor deals, obviously the Thomas deal was a big success, but the payoff for the next contention window will be most likely what we trade Thomas for.

I think Thomas will be here as long as they can sign him on the cheap.  Our farmhand outfielders aren't close to MLB caliber yet...if indeed they ever get there...other than Wood...