Stephen Strasburg Retires

[JCA-CrystalCity]

2K6Nats I think hits it. That 2019 playoff run was historic, and Stras was one of the few constants on a team that had the 2nd best record in baseball from 2012 to 2019. Only RZ and Stras completed that journey.

[HalfSmokes]

This is confusing because under the contract they are not “paying out” 35 million a year for the next three years. That is the AAV. The actual cash is $23.6 million because of the deferrals.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/stephen-strasburg-6865/

So my question is under the CBA could they calculate further deferrals for the 2024-26 seasons?  And/or could they agree to further deferrals for the funds already deferred beyond 2026 (end of the contract)?  If I recall correctly they are also paying him now for deferrals under the previous contract.

I don't think deferrals matter for the CBT. The value is based on AAV and only years under contract count so he'll be counted as $35 million through 2026. I don't think it really matters because I don't see us even approaching the tax in that time frame

[imref]

So with Robles looking like he may be done too, we’re down to Corbin as the only player left from 2019

[Mattionals]

So with Robles looking like he may be done too, we’re down to Corbin as the only player left from 2019

Woah, that's true. Crazy to think that in five years since the hoisting of that trophy, every player will be done from the Nats.

[Natsinpwc]

I don't think deferrals matter for the CBT. The value is based on AAV and only years under contract count so he'll be counted as $35 million through 2026. I don't think it really matters because I don't see us even approaching the tax in that time frame

Right, deferrals do not count for the CBT and the Nats are not near the luxury tax.  Just wondering if they are able to get further relief on cash payouts. 

[nobleisthyname]

Honestly it feels like those saying he was constantly hurt throughout his career are overstating things a bit. From 2013-2019 he averaged 170 IP and 28 starts. He was certainly a risk to sign to such a big contract after 2019 but I don't think it's fair to say that what happened could be seen from a mile away.

[Slateman]

Honestly it feels like those saying he was constantly hurt throughout his career are overstating things a bit. From 2013-2019 he averaged 170 IP and 28 starts. He was certainly a risk to sign to such a big contract after 2019 but I don't think it's fair to say that what happened could be seen from a mile away.

But he was chronically injured. 2015, 2016, and 2018 he made fewer than 25 starts. In 2017, where he made 28 starts, he still missed 3 weeks due to a nerve issue.

Sorry, but it was blatently obvious that he wasnt going to maintain his health post-2019. In particular, he had had nerve issues in recent years. That he would be unable to pick up his daughter, no one could have seen. But being able to take a pretty good guess that a guy with arm/shoulder/neck issues the last five year would struggle to stay healthy after age 30? Naw that was clear as day.

[imref]

if Strasburg had another year in 2020 like he had in 2019, and it put us on another deep playoff run, i think one could argue the contract was worthwhile. But alas it was not meant to be.

[nobleisthyname]

But he was chronically injured. 2015, 2016, and 2018 he made fewer than 25 starts. In 2017, where he made 28 starts, he still missed 3 weeks due to a nerve issue.

Sorry, but it was blatently obvious that he wasnt going to maintain his health post-2019. In particular, he had had nerve issues in recent years. That he would be unable to pick up his daughter, no one could have seen. But being able to take a pretty good guess that a guy with arm/shoulder/neck issues the last five year would struggle to stay healthy after age 30? Naw that was clear as day.

I think we're in agreement. There's a middle ground between being perfectly healthy and what actually ended up happening. The way a lot of people are commenting on Strasburg's health issues you'd have thought he was on the IL more often than not.

[nfotiu]

I think people tend to overstate the relationship of past injuries as a predictor of future injuries, and there is some confirmation bias when it plays out that way, vs players who get a few big early career injuries and then stay healthy for a while.   Lots of nerve issues are pretty common, and Max's neck problems would probably be looked at as a red flag in retrospect if he ended up injured all the time.

Giving a 7 year deal to any 30 yo power pitcher who's had TJ is probably a bad bet in most cases.   It's hard to see how the Nats could have escaped this one.  Probably the biggest mistake was signing him to the contract with an option in it.  An 8-9 year deal with no options would have left better feelings for everyone involved.   But if Boras wasn't willing to go there, then we'd have probably lost Strasburg and not won the world series.   

It's crazy how perfectly bad that option contract worked out for the Nats.   If the option year was 2018, 2020, 2021, then no way does he excercise it.   

The right play was not re-signing him when he optioned out and not signing Rendon, but then we'd all be calling out comparisons to Loria.

[Slateman]

I think we're in agreement. There's a middle ground between being perfectly healthy and what actually ended up happening. The way a lot of people are commenting on Strasburg's health issues you'd have thought he was on the IL more often than not.

He may as well have been. It was always when, not if. Until 2019, Stras had made three total pitching appearances in the playoffs. He always seemed to be dealing with something.

[nobleisthyname]

He may as well have been. It was always when, not if. Until 2019, Stras had made three total pitching appearances in the playoffs. He always seemed to be dealing with something.

Ok, but he wasn't. So people saying he was are still wrong, even if it really feels like it was true.

[nfotiu]

Strasburg finished 2017,2018,2019 seasons pitching better than anyone late in the season and into the playoffs on the 2 years they made it.  By the end of that stretch, it seemed like he figured out how to stay on the field through the end of the season, and Max was the one missing key starts in the post season, and showing his age.

[UMDNats]

Build a 19-armed statue of Strasburg outside Nats Park or GTFO

[bluestreak]

It's crazy how perfectly bad that option contract worked out for the Nats.   If the option year was 2018, 2020, 2021, then no way does he excercise it.   

The right play was not re-signing him when he optioned out and not signing Rendon, but then we'd all be calling out comparisons to Loria.

It would have worked out badly regardless of when the option was. The history of people going gangbusters before free agency is well documented.

The narrative here seems to be that he blew out his arm to bring the Nats a championship, which is fine I guess.

But the way I look at it is that he blew out his arm trying to get a monster payout, which he did. I don’t begrudge him that at all, but there are way more baseball stories that are a lot sadder than Strasburg’s.

[NatsLSU]

I like to pretend his current contract was his rookie contract and vice versa.

[imref]

It would have worked out badly regardless of when the option was. The history of people going gangbusters before free agency is well documented.

The narrative here seems to be that he blew out his arm to bring the Nats a championship, which is fine I guess.

But the way I look at it is that he blew out his arm trying to get a monster payout, which he did. I don’t begrudge him that at all, but there are way more baseball stories that are a lot sadder than Strasburg’s.

I'd like to think that Strasburg, like most professional athletes, was far more focused on competing and winning than anything else. He had all the money he needed but now will live the rest of his life with severe nerve damage in his arm. Most of what he has dealt with, including TOS and continued attempts to come back, have occurred after he signed the extension.

[Natsinpwc]

I'd like to think that Strasburg, like most professional athletes, was far more focused on competing and winning than anything else. He had all the money he needed but now will live the rest of his life with severe nerve damage in his arm. Most of what he has dealt with, including TOS and continued attempts to come back, have occurred after he signed the extension.

Strasburg knew that many thought of him as fragile. Why Max even lit into him on the bench that one time. He wanted to prove himself and be part of a champion.  Nothing to apologize for there. Good luck to him. Any ire about the contract is all on the owners. They had all his medical information.

[nfotiu]

I'd like to think that Strasburg, like most professional athletes, was far more focused on competing and winning than anything else. He had all the money he needed but now will live the rest of his life with severe nerve damage in his arm. Most of what he has dealt with, including TOS and continued attempts to come back, have occurred after he signed the extension.

Also, it would be pretty impressive to think that he flipped a switch in 2019 and willed his way to a World Series MVP for financial reasons.   If Soto doesn't get that hit in the wild card game, then he ends 2019 with a solid, but unspectular season.   Does he take the option in that case?   Do we give him a new 7 year contract?   

[skippy1999]

We'll always have Strasmas and the WS banner-thanks for all the great moments, Stras!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We'll always have Strasmas and the WS banner-thanks for all the great moments, Stras!

nice bookends.  I don't really look at 2020 onwards as being part of his career. It's just one long series of injuries, marked by unsuccessful attempts to overcome them. It's like looking at Lou Gehrig's last season as diminishing his career (of course, Gehirig had a greater career and more tragic end to it).

[rileyn]

Strasburg will never have to buy a drink when I'm around.

[welch]

Just for the record, here is Svrluga/Janes Q&A on Strasburg's retirement:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/25/stephen-strasburg-retirement-nationals/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Just for the record, here is Svrluga/Janes Q&A on Strasburg's retirement:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/25/stephen-strasburg-retirement-nationals/

read the whole thing. Well worth it.

It's clear we  still take the hit to the Luxury Tax threshold for the next 3 seasons, but I'd imagine that we will not be anywhere close to that given the structure of the roster. Even with signings, by 2026 we would expect a lot of the position players not event to be eligible for arbitration. Only CJ, Gore, Gray, and maybe Irvin would be in arbitration among the key pieces. Thomas would be on a free agent contract if he's kept, and maybe a few of the relievers if they are still pitching (Finnegan, Harvey, Rainey).

I suppose the settlement will involve some sort of extended payout of roughly the same money.  That shifting of obligations to the future might represent the Lerners sloughing off obligation onto future ownership, but I suppose that will figure in the price of the team marginally.

[welch]

The Svrluga/Janes Q&A also had an extended discussion of contract thinking with Strasburg and Rendon. Interesting: the Nats had decided against paying much for Rendon, having seen that Rendon did not work hard to get into shape whenever he was hurt. In contrast to Strasburg, who worked harder than anyone. Rendon was a good player, but was not driven to be better...a take it or leave it attitude. Rendon, they the Nats believed, was just as happy being with his family in Texas, and hated being the focus.