Seems our expectations for this signing has been so low that we never started a thread for him.
Many of us were so impressed by Trey Lipscomb this spring that we were disappointed that Senzel initially was on the OD roster and Trey was sent to Rochester. This plan didn't even last to the top of the first in Cincinnati, as Senzel took a ball off his hand during fielding drills and Trey and Davey had to insert the ubiquitous Ildemaro Vargas into the OD lineup. OD seems a while ago, with Rosario homering and Josiah Gray on the mound healthy. Trey was recalled and, after a few "I told you so" games that had us thinking Senzel was Wally Pipp, Trey struggled enough that most folks were ready for Senzel's return to see what the Nats signed.
An initial meh 1st series in LA vs the Dodgers then a quick bout of the flu at the end of the Houston / Dodgers home stand showed little promise. The "don't judge the move until 100 PAs" had some counting the PAs before
. The only hint of something promising to come was a couple of solo homers. Going on the road, Senzel did have a solid .214 ISO, but that was on a .200 / .259 / .414 batting line through 28 PAs.
At District on Deck, Reese Evans captured Senzel's performance:
Nick Senzel was placed on the 10-day Injured List due to a freak accident while warming up for Opening Day. The 28-year-old third baseman has played seven games since returning from injury and is yet to find his stride. His lone home run came against a right-handed pitcher, the opposite of what Senzel's scouting report reads, a left-handed specialist. It's hard to grade the signing of Senzel due to his lack of games played. Just 22 at-bats into his season, Senzel can boost his statistics with a multiple-hit game. The third baseman must get the ball rolling, as he's still under the .200 batting average mark.
Signing Grade: Incomplete
https://districtondeck.com/posts/what-does-the-future-hold-for-nationals-mitchell-parker-01hw66daekanWell, one nice series against bottom dwelling Marlins probably shouldn't lead to thinking this is much more real than Rosario's OD homer, but in fairness, we have gotten to see a slice of the promise Senzel has held but only inconsistently lived up to in his career. DH'ng while Lipscomb is back at 3rd and reliving his Spring Training, Senzel hit 3 homers over 2 games, including 2 today for 5 RBI. Senzel's hitting line is now .222 / .263 . . . [ho-hum] . . . / .639. .415 ISO. Still just 39 PAs so the gotta see 100 PAs to start to have a reality check on the signing (the 5.1 BB% / 28.2 K% aren't far off his career 7.6 BB% / 20.8 K%), but he's earned some patience. More than that, he's earned a lot of happiness from things going right for him.
Davey also played a good hunch today batting him #2, in between the two best Nats hitters, lefties CJ Abrams and Jesse Winker. The Nats have had something of a struggle at #2 since CJ pushed Lane out of leadoff. Lining CJ and Winker back to back has worked at times, but no righty has really emerged as a top 4 bat.
So, is the power for Senzel real? what's his career numbers look like? What did scouts see to make him a highly ranked prospect?
He was the #7 MLB prospect coming into his rookie year, with an expectation that he would have great contact skills and power that would show up when he made highly quality contact. From his FG prospect report:
Senzel has a contact and power combination that will profile anywhere on the diamond, and he's a likely star if he ends up at his natural position (third base) or proves athletically capable of handling second base or center field. ... At the very least, he has stumbled into defensive versatility. Mostly though, Senzel hits. He doesn’t have monster raw power, nor does he seek to take max-effort swings by utilizing a big stride or leg kick. Instead, his power comes from precise, high-quality contact. He’s going to be a doubles machine with home runs coming opportunistically rather than playing core aspect of his approach, but he’ll still hit for power.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list That 2019 prospect list also had Victor Robles #5, so it earns many grains of salt for these 2 evaluations.
His career numbers kind of explain why he was not going to get much better of an offer than the Nats $2 million and a chance to start at his natural position, 3rd base (going into today, 1399 PAs, 33 HRs, .238 / .301 / .372). Senzel has shown signs of pop his rookie year and last year. In 2019, 414 PAs, he hit .256 / .315 / .427 with 12 HRs, while last year, in just 330 PAs, he hit .236 / .297 / .399 with 13 HRs. In between, he showed no progress. Injuries were a part of his disappointment in 2020-23.
https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/nick-senzel-player-injuriesHe claims to be healthy and he's playing at his natural position or DH. It'll be interesting to see if the hit tool shows up. The power is maybe something that will stay as he's now in his prime playing age. Perhaps a .250 / .320 /.440 line would be a nice result, with maybe a little higher SLG if the power shows.
