CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's funny but seeing cj and Garcia this year restores some faith in scouting evaluations of prospects

[Section214]

Takes two to make a deal.  Do the Lerners want this? The Keibert extension is not looking as rosy now.

A big part of the extensions is proving to fans that we aren't just tanking. Giving Keibert 8 years shows fans - "this guy is here to stay, we're not trading him, buy his jersey, he can be your kids favorite player" and I know that's not exactly analytically important, but as a fan it's crucial.

Lock CJ up. Overpay him if you have to. We can not let another young superstar leave and go be a star in another rival city, it will kill the fan base.

[Natsinpwc]

A big part of the extensions is proving to fans that we aren't just tanking. Giving Keibert 8 years shows fans - "this guy is here to stay, we're not trading him, buy his jersey, he can be your kids favorite player" and I know that's not exactly analytically important, but as a fan it's crucial.

Lock CJ up. Overpay him if you have to. We can not let another young superstar leave and go be a star in another rival city, it will kill the fan base.

Yes but the Keibert thing doesn’t look so good if he can’t improve his defense.  Who is CJ’s agent? I mean he might just want to bet on himself. Acuna and Albies look dumb to the other players. 

[imref]

A big part of the extensions is proving to fans that we aren't just tanking. Giving Keibert 8 years shows fans - "this guy is here to stay, we're not trading him, buy his jersey, he can be your kids favorite player" and I know that's not exactly analytically important, but as a fan it's crucial.

Lock CJ up. Overpay him if you have to. We can not let another young superstar leave and go be a star in another rival city, it will kill the fan base.

we have armando cruz

[IanRubbish]

He’s not Boras which helps.  But not clear he wants to make that kind of commitment.  That said. I’d rather sign him to a longer term deal than do another Jayson Werth type signing, might not get as lucky with another 31 yo FA as we did with Werth.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He’s not Boras which helps.  But not clear he wants to make that kind of commitment.  That said. I’d rather sign him to a longer term deal than do another Jayson Werth type signing, might not get as lucky with another 31 yo FA as we did with Werth.

Showing the team is serious by committing to controlled talent is better than throwing a years and dollars premium at a vet in a competitive FA pool. I'm on board with your thinking. of course, the purpose of showing that we are serious about contention in the future is to perhaps attract FAs that would not play for a team going nowhere

[Smithian]

I need to see a Bobby Witt Jr season from CJ Abrams before I want him to have a Bobby Witt Jr contract. I feel like the deal for Abrams was a bigger version of the Ke'Bryan Hayes deal.

But for all we know they may have been working on an extension and the Witt Jr extension forced the Abrams team to decide to have him bet on himself

[DCsOwn]

https://x.com/nationalscomms/status/1782054776408047676?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

[imref]

Currently 6th in the MLB in OPS, first in slugging.

Seeing where he is now, and then reading some of the early pages of this thread...is something.

[IanRubbish]

Currently 6th in the MLB in OPS, first in slugging.

Seeing where he is now, and then reading some of the early pages of this thread...is something.

I think his OPS will drop with such a high ISO, but with only 3 SBs, would expect his speed to pick up when his power drops.

[DCsOwn]

Currently 6th in the MLB in OPS, first in slugging.

Seeing where he is now, and then reading some of the early pages of this thread...is something.

I changed the avy as soon as the trade was consummated. I was thrilled that he was included in the Soto package and I genuinely believed that he had star upside this entire time.

Me on page one:

“Casual dynamism lol

There’s still a world where he turns into a five or six win player in the league imo. That’s the ceiling for him of course, but he’s an extremely talented kid with physical development still in front of him. Fully expect for him to be the shortstop in DC for the next half decade at least”

[DCsOwn]

https://x.com/CespedesBBQ/status/1782147604513529999

[Count Walewski]

Last summer I took my kindergarten-aged daughter to her first-ever MLB game at Nats Park. When CJ Abrams came up to bat, I explained he was the best player on the team, which Lane Thomas (who we were sitting in front of) or Jeimer Candelario certainly could have taken issue with at the time. She found "CJ Abrams" hard to say so she called him #5 the entire game.

A few months ago, she randomly asked me if the Nationals had retired #5's number yet since he was so good. I politely said they usually do that after a player retires, even if the player was a good as CJ Abrams, and then went behind closed doors and laughed. Well nobody's laughing now.

[Smithian]

Last summer I took my kindergarten-aged daughter to her first-ever MLB game at Nats Park. When CJ Abrams came up to bat, I explained he was the best player on the team, which Lane Thomas (who we were sitting in front of) or Jeimer Candelario certainly could have taken issue with at the time. She found "CJ Abrams" hard to say so she called him #5 the entire game.

A few months ago, she randomly asked me if the Nationals had retired #5's number yet since he was so good. I politely said they usually do that after a player retires, even if the player was a good as CJ Abrams, and then went behind closed doors and laughed. Well nobody's laughing now.

Get in the dugout, Lane!

[nobleisthyname]

Fangraphs has an article up today on the mechanical adjustments Abrams has made that seems to have fueled his hot start:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cj-abrams-is-taking-over-at-the-plate/

The article has some short gifs that more clearly show the mechanical change but here's some quotes:

Up until this year, the lefty had a steep, pushy entry into the hitting zone. That resulted in a suboptimal launch angle distribution. In 2023, he had a 32.6% sweet-spot rate, which was in the 30th percentile. (A player’s sweet spot percentage is defined as the percentage of their batted balls hit between eight and 32 degrees.) So instead of hitting balls at launch angles that would result in line drives and hard-hit fly balls, Abrams hit a ton of popups and groundballs. His swing had a limited range of quality contact points.

[This season,] Dude has been a walking barrel. Instead of the 32.6% sweet-spot rate he posted last year, he’s sporting a 48.2% mark. That sits in the 97th percentile. Abrams might not have light-tower power, but he hits the ball hard enough that he is going to make pitchers pay for their mistakes.

He has now tailored his swing towards crushing mistakes. Even if he has an overly aggressive approach with too much chase, he is still going to get to middle-middle pitches. That’s a valuable trait to have. When the inevitable slump comes, the power will still be there to carry him through.

[Natsinpwc]

Another Darnell Coles success story.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Another Darnell Coles success story.

I'll be really curious to figure out who he worked with to tinker with the angle of his swing. Did he pick it up on his own? Was it pointed out to him in the off-season by one of these 3rd party athletic training programs independent of the team? Was it Coles?

Coles may not be worthless. I think he may have helped Robles if the fellow can ever stay healthy. There was that "hold the dodge ball between your forearm and bicep when you practice swing to avoid opening up too fast to reach for pitches" trick that really seemed to work going into 2023. I also think Garcia is showing signs of improvement, too. As for Winker, I don't know it's much more than being fully healthy.

[Senatorswin]

I'll be really curious to figure out who he worked with to tinker with the angle of his swing. Did he pick it up on his own? Was it pointed out to him in the off-season by one of these 3rd party athletic training programs independent of the team? Was it Coles?

Coles may not be worthless. I think he may have helped Robles if the fellow can ever stay healthy. There was that "hold the dodge ball between your forearm and bicep when you practice swing to avoid opening up too fast to reach for pitches" trick that really seemed to work going into 2023. I also think Garcia is showing signs of improvement, too. As for Winker, I don't know it's much more than being fully healthy.

Wasn't it said recently Abram and Winker worked together all offseason and Abrams was really happy when Winker was brought on by the Nats. Supposedly they watch each others at-bats and mention it when they see something off.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Wasn't it said recently Abram and Winker worked together all offseason and Abrams was really happy when Winker was brought on by the Nats. Supposedly they watch each others at-bats and mention it when they see something off.

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=41299.0;msg=2313871

In the Winker thread, there's a discussion of working with Winker. They were both at Maven Baseball Lab in Atlanta. They know everything about hitting. They say so themselves.

[DCsOwn]

https://x.com/mlbnetwork/status/1783207026723606924?s=46&t=Q_qc3R_qyMHAAFvlywNqzQ

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cj-abrams-is-taking-over-at-the-plate/

Buried in the comments in this article are a couple of interesting observations about CJ's defense. After noting his range issues, one of the commenters notes that much of his problem is from going to his left, per the statcast breakdown of his fielding. There's a suggestion that, if he has to be moved off SS, the better place to put him might be 3rd given his range.

EonADS
 1 day ago
 Reply to  A Salty Scientist
From what Statcast’s fielding breakdowns are saying, it looks like the lion’s share of his issues are moving laterally towards his glove side. That’s the same whether he’s at SS or 2B, though it’s exacerbated at short. He’s not great coming in either, but he’s not awful, so I think that can be fixed. But I’m thinking his left leg and ability to transfer across his body are both issues. ...

From the eye test, his footwork in general as a fielder is also just mediocre. He needs a dedicated coach to break down his fielding, and I’m no expert, but those issues seem like the biggest things holding him back.

sadtrombonemember
 5 hours ago
 Reply to  EonADS
That is a lot of things but in theory they are fixable. I wonder if he would do better at third base than at second. Center field is the obvious spot for guys with his speed and infield issues, but since they will have to move Wood and Crews to accommodate him there I would expect them to try him somewhere else in the infield first.

[nobleisthyname]

I thought the concern last season was his arm, not his range. Interesting that statcast has it the other way around.

Edit: His arm rating was only 48th percentile last season, slightly below average. Up to 64th percentile this season in a much smaller sample size.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I thought the concern last season was his arm, not his range. Interesting that statcast has it the other way around.

Edit: His arm rating was only 48th percentile last season, slightly below average. Up to 64th percentile this season in a much smaller sample size.

middling arm means he's in the middle of guys who can play SS. I'm ok with that.

[Natsinpwc]

More power at the plate. Stronger arm.  Hmmmm…

[imref]

Sure would have been nice to extend him this past offseason. I don’t think it happens now.