2021 MLB Draft

[RD]

Major League Baseball teams view the SEC, NAIA, Pac 10, and all the travel ball as lower level competition. Its all viewed as equivalent to A ball.

BTW, who they are more likely to draft has little to do with their stats and much more to do with their evaluation of the player's tools and mental standing. If all they cared about were stats, then no one would draft high school players. But according to you, the Nats should have take Kyle Parker over Bryce Harper. Cus, you know, hitting in the ACC is such high competition

Obviously you skipped the part where I said talent is #1, but I know that doesn't fit your narrative.

You're right. If you're Max Scherzer thinking of a 20 year old in college. SEC/ACC is lower than the big leagues. It is lower level comp.

When you're a scout, judging amateurs, SEC/ACC is top level baseball. I can't believe you're even arguing this fact. Talent can be found at any level, but there absolutely are tiers in competition. And the better the comp, the better a scout is going to trust his eval. Especially later in the draft. Elite talent is elite talent, and obvious. When you're down a few hundred picks, as in this case,, things aren't so obvious. A kids stuff and performance against Vandy is going to matter more than it does against Cumberland when deciding on a pick.

[Slateman]

Stop. Elite talent doesnt mean an entire conference is elite. Jack Lieter wasnt facing  a major league roster his entire season. Hell, 98% of who he faced will never play an inning of professional baseball. Individual talent vastly outweighs any competition that they faced. Again, if it didnt, no one would take high schoolers if that arguement had any weight.

I played Division I ball. I met with scouts and executives to talk about all of this. I'm telling you there is a reason that the vast majority of drafted college players start their careers in A ball. Because thats their skill level, as assessed by major league baseball teams.

[Kevrock]

Kirian was a college pitcher. He literally faced low level competition.

This is maybe the weirdest take I've ever seen on here.

[Kevrock]

I agree. I dont really know the history of the author but he seems upset because the guys aren't toolsy upside guys. Most college guys outside of the top 50 aren't going to carry that profile, so seems like he'd be upset with a lot of guys.

Prospects Live has Daylen Lile as the #29 overall player in the draft. I wouldnt consider him a savings pick, and I wouldn't consider him a reach, either.

They also had Saenz #103 overall, and he went 112.

Kirian was ranked #200, and went 173rd. Especially at that point of the draft, that's not necessarily a savings pick. And trying to knock a 6th round pick as just a LOOGY is a prime example. Kirian has had a lot of success in relief at a high level, and can hit 95 from the left side. Not sure why there's such an attempt to knock a 6th round pick.

You see it all the time in the NFL Draft, where a team values players differently than analysts do. In baseball, it's even harder to find a consensus ranking. If a guy goes 20 picks before bus rank, it doesn't mean he's a reach. Or because a guy goes in the 5th instead of the 7th, it may not mean anything. A team may have a better connection, a scout may have seen more of a kid, etc. I remember Michael Taylor in the 7th was a bit of an unknown pick and he made it to the bigs and made an impact. TJ White may be nothing. But the kid has a good frame, tremendous power, and is a bright, hard working kid. There are certainly flaws - he went in the 5th round. But there's obviously talent.

I do think the team will get some savings in the rounds after the 1st, cuz they'll probably need to save around a mill at least to get House. But I dont think they punted on every pick after House just to land him. Lile looks good, there could be some real talent that helps the bullpen, and an upside HS kid. On top of House, it seems like a solid draft.

Good stuff.

Here's BA on our most underrated picks.

Nationals: Mack Anglin, RHP/Cole Quintanilla, RHP — Quintanilla, the Nationals’ ninth-round pick, is the reliever who just throws strikes and has success despite average stuff. Anglin is the pitcher with premium stuff who hasn’t figured out how to have consistent success. Maybe it won’t click, but the Nationals need premium arms and Anglin’s slider has elite spin and his fastball is a plus pitch as well. (JC)

[Natsinpwc]

Stop. Elite talent doesnt mean an entire conference is elite. Jack Lieter wasnt facing  a major league roster his entire season. Hell, 98% of who he faced will never play an inning of professional baseball. Individual talent vastly outweighs any competition that they faced. Again, if it didnt, no one would take high schoolers if that arguement had any weight.

I played Division I ball. I met with scouts and executives to talk about all of this. I'm telling you there is a reason that the vast majority of drafted college players start their careers in A ball. Because thats their skill level, as assessed by major league baseball teams.

Fair points, but I believe that the general consensus is that the talent level in college is higher than 20 or even 10 years ago.  And certainly it's higher than high school.  As you say most of these guys still need 2/3 years in the minors (the better ones).

[Slateman]

Fair points, but I believe that the general consensus is that the talent level in college is higher than 20 or even 10 years ago.  And certainly it's higher than high school.  As you say most of these guys still need 2/3 years in the minors (the better ones).

Sure, but it still holds because the talent level in MLB higher. Like I said, college ball is approximately equivalent to A ball

[Natsinpwc]

Sure, but it still holds because the talent level in MLB higher. Like I said, college ball is approximately equivalent to A ball

So maybe closer to High A now and to Low A 20 years ago? 

[varoadking]

Fair points, but I believe that the general consensus is that the talent level in college is higher than 20 or even 10 years ago.  And certainly it's higher than high school.  As you say most of these guys still need 2/3 years in the minors (the better ones).

The FredNats seem to be high school varsity level talent.  Terrible baseball...but a fun atmosphere...

[Natsinpwc]

The FredNats seem to be high school varsity level talent.  Terrible baseball...but a fun atmosphere...

Don't you dare make fun of Rizzo's drafting and player development!

[Slateman]

So maybe closer to High A now and to Low A 20 years ago? 

No, not really.

If all the talent in high schools and colleges got better then so did the talent in the minors. Because thats where the majority of the talent comes from

[Natsinpwc]

No, not really.

If all the talent in high schools and colleges got better then so did the talent in the minors. Because thats where the majority of the talent comes from

But aren't more talented players choosing college over the minor leagues now common out of high school?  Last year the draft had only five rounds. 

https://apnews.com/article/fl-state-wire-college-baseball-college-sports-sports-ok-state-wire-58356b2198f3814cbd6c26e034a72c90

[Slateman]

But aren't more talented players choosing college over the minor leagues now common out of high school?  Last year the draft had only five rounds. 

https://apnews.com/article/fl-state-wire-college-baseball-college-sports-sports-ok-state-wire-58356b2198f3814cbd6c26e034a72c90

That was a one time thing. We just had a 20 round draft and the teams want more rounds.

[Natsinpwc]

And?

More talented players have been choosing college over the minor leagues.  Thus the relative talent level rises. 

[Slateman]

More talented players have been choosing college over the minor leagues.  Thus the relative talent level rises. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Major_League_Baseball_draft

Out of the entire first round, only one position player and three pitchers started above A ball this season. The consensus number 1 pick started at A ball.

There are 299 division 1 baseball teams. Each has ~30 players. There is far less talent in college than in Double A. The talent level at the MLB level has dramstically increased in the last 20 years. This has resulted in more talent in the minors.

[Natsinpwc]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Major_League_Baseball_draft

Out of the entire first round, only one position player started above A ball this season. the consensus number 1 pick started at A ball.

There are 299 division 1 baseball teams. Each has ~30 players. There is far less talent in college than in Double A.

I'm sure there is.  Never said it was near Double A ball.  I mean there are like 200 college teams so certainly the talent level for most teams is not strong. 

[RD]

This is maybe the weirdest take I've ever seen on here.

Yeah, I'm lost. I dont even think he knows what he's talking about.

Hes literally comparing amateur college players to AA players. Right now. How is that any type of comparison point? An amateur college kid vs a professional thats been a pro for many years by the time they reach AA. Yeah, the upper levels of the pro game are better comp than college. No sh-t Sherlock. Guys in the NFL are better than college players as well.

The comp at various levels of the pro game is completely irrelevant.

Sticking to the topic at hand, I can't believe anyone would argue that playing college baseball in a top tier conference while advancing to the CWS, is not playing amateur ball at the highest level. Amateur to amateur is all that matters. Not sure how playing in AA became a part of the draft eval equation, when you can't play minor league ball as an amateur.

[RD]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Major_League_Baseball_draft

Out of the entire first round, only one position player and three pitchers started above A ball this season. The consensus number 1 pick started at A ball.

There are 299 division 1 baseball teams. Each has ~30 players. There is far less talent in college than in Double A. The talent level at the MLB level has dramstically increased in the last 20 years. This has resulted in more talent in the minors.

Talent in AA is irrelevant to a discussion about a draftee this year.

I made a comment about a kid from Louisville, in the ACC, whose pitched on the CWS having some success at the highest level. Clearly, that's the college level. The amateur level. It'd be pretty hard for him to have success in the minors, when he's in college.

Simple question. Who faces more talent on a regular basis. Louisville or Lewis and Clark? One plays at the highest level, one does not.

[Slateman]

Talent in AA is irrelevant to a discussion about a draftee this year.

I made a comment about a kid from Louisville, in the ACC, whose pitched on the CWS having some success at the highest level. Clearly, that's the college level. The amateur level. It'd be pretty hard for him to have success in the minors, when he's in college.

Simple question. Who faces more talent on a regular basis. Louisville or Lewis and Clark? One plays at the highest level, one does not.

But he hasnt had success at thr highest level. The highest level is Major League Baseball. Division I college ball is lower level competiton. Its equivalent to A ball. So you saying he had success in the College World Series is the same as saying he had a good postseaon in thr Carolina League

What are you not understanding about this? It doesnt matter where they played. Scouts dont care. Mike Trout played against crap competition in New Jersey. Scouts do not give a damn. They care about the tools the player has and how projectable they are. Who they play against is pretty irrelevant because most of the people they play against arent going to be good enough to continue playing against them.

[Kevrock]

ACC is high level competition for someone in the draft. It was a relative statement and everyone knows what he meant.

[Natsinpwc]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Major_League_Baseball_draft

Out of the entire first round, only one position player and three pitchers started above A ball this season. The consensus number 1 pick started at A ball.

There are 299 division 1 baseball teams. Each has ~30 players. There is far less talent in college than in Double A. The talent level at the MLB level has dramstically increased in the last 20 years. This has resulted in more talent in the minors.

Talent has to come from somewhere. There are more college players in MLB now than there were years ago as compared to those who come directly from high school. Also if you really want to be honest the talent level in MLB is now higher because there are more Latin players than there used to be. Which is of course irrelevant to the draft.

[Slateman]

ACC is high level competition for someone in the draft. It was a relative statement and everyone knows what he meant.

No, it isnt relative as we're talking about Major League Baseball as we were specifically talking about the MLB draft.

The ACC is equivalent to A ball. That is low level competition.

[Slateman]

Talent has to come from somewhere. There are more college players in MLB now than there were years ago as compared to those who come directly from high school. Also if you really want to be honest the talent level in MLB is now higher because there are more Latin players than there used to be. Which is of course irrelevant to the draft.

All that does is prove my point.

[Natsinpwc]

All that does is prove my point.

I really don’t know what your point is.  I think others were arguing that some college conferences are better than others. I have pointed out that it’s fairly well acknowledged that college baseball is stronger than years ago.  It’s a fact that more players are drafted out of college now versus high school as compared to years ago. Teams like to draft college players because there is a better indication that they will fair better in pro ball.  That’s all I got. No more rabbit holes today for me.

[Kevrock]

No, it isnt relative as we're talking about Major League Baseball as we were specifically talking about the MLB draft.

The ACC is equivalent to A ball. That is low level competition.

You’re being obtuse on purpose for some reason to create a multi-page argument. That’s not the way people refer to talent levels within the context of the draft. His comment was obviously relative to other draft prospects.

[Slateman]

I really don’t know what your point is.  I think others were arguing that some college conferences are better than others. I have pointed out that it’s fairly well acknowledged that college baseball is stronger than years ago.  It’s a fact that more players are drafted out of college now versus high school as compared to years ago. Teams like to draft college players because there is a better indication that they will fair better in pro ball.  That’s all I got. No more rabbit holes today for me.

My point is this: College baseball is the equivalent to Single A ball. It is not "high level competition"