Author Topic: Approach to the trade deadline  (Read 12239 times)

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Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #75: June 07, 2023, 08:36:23 PM »
After maikel Franco and Cesar, Vargas played the last 2 months of the year at 3rd and was fine defensively.  There will not be a defensive hole if Candelario is traded.  I don't know if Alu or Kieboom will be ready, and the bat may be missed, but the glove can be replaced.

Online Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #76: June 07, 2023, 09:56:17 PM »

The Nats need major league ballplayers. Candelario is the best 3B they have had since Rendon. He hits and he fields. That is talent, and talent at a key position. Kieboom  has never shown a hint that he can do hit major league pitching or field. He is not hitting much at Rochester. So the Nats should just throw away. Yet you continue to blather that the Nats should trade Candelario and, yet again, have nobody at 3B.

The Nationals need MLB ballplayers in 2025 and beyond. That's what they're going for. That is what is needed. In order to do that, you have to get quality players into your system. Whether its to develop them into players, or trade them for players, a MLB franchise has to have them.

Who cares if we have nobody at third next year or 2025? Who cares? What difference does Candelario make? We're seeing it. Career year Candelario still leads to well below .500 team. You need more good players, and the only way we're getting them is through minor league development.

So Candelario is a good player but the Nats don't need a 3B? Remember Maikel Franco? Why should the Nats depend putting the next Franco at 3B? Why should anyone be certain that Brady House is the next Eddie Matthews or Brooks Robinson or Ryan Zimmerman? Yet you flip from saying that Candelario is just another journeyman to now insisting that you know what he will get as a free agent. Do you claim to read minds?

They don't need a good third baseman in 2024 and 2025. They will after. I don't think Candelario is going to be very good at the age of 32. And did you not see last season's free agent class? Michael Conforto hadn't played in two years, and he got a 2 year, 36 mil contract. Andrew Benintendi got 5 for 75. Mitch Hanginer got 3 for 43. Next year's free agent class has significantly less talent. You're not getting Canedelario on some chump change deal. Not if he's coming off a career year.

The point I made, and which you ignore or don't understand: the Nats should try to re-sign Candelario. If they can't, then trade him because some return is better than no return. But what is your point in asking, as an insult, if I don't know that the Nats have a bad bullpen? Why are you certain that the Nats can build a winning bullpen, that fragile thing, a bullpen, that the team can trade Candelario for a good-or-great relief pitcher? They traded Kyle Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez, who has not pitched since. Nothing is so certain.

The Nats can try and re-sign him after they trade him. But he 100% should be traded at the deadline. Getting something is better than getting nothing. THat's what not trading Candelario gets you. Nothing. Cus he ain't coming back. The Lerners aren't going to be the big spenders in the offseason. And Candelario is taking the most money he can get.

Also, you keep bring up Schwarber for Ramirez. Why? Schwarber was going to free agency. The Nats could have beat the 4/80 that he signed. So unless your arguement is they should have just held on to him for the draft pick attached to a QO, I fail to see any point. Not all trades work out. Thats why you trade as much as you can in  rebuild.

Only three? Owners have been building baseball teams for about 150 years, but you "know" for certain because your logic tells you Rizzo signed this group of free agents only so he could flip them? That the only reasons are the three you think of, and that he must never change his mind? Is he that inflexible? Or maybe you are. Maybe Rizzo will try to hold onto any useful player he happens to net?

There's only three where Rizzo is concerned. Owners are a different matter. What other possible reason did he have? He was gonna sign him to a 5 million dollar deal and then, what, try and extend him in a career year? Candelario would laugh so hard. Dude is gonna cash in. And if the Lerners want to outbid MLB for the services of Canedlario, by all means, do so. And they can do it after we trade him. Because that dude is not gonna care that we traded him if we slap down a 5 year, 110 million dollar contract. Hell, he'd probably thank us for giving him a chance to play meaningful baseball.

Yet you tell us, again and again, that the Nats can lose all the time until that unicorn future, when they have lost so much that they have assembled a championship team? Don't try to win? Should the Nats tank every single season? Even when they cannot draft better than 10th?

And that's it: at some point, you try to win games. Because the purpose of baseball is to win as many games as possible.


At some point, we will try and win some games. But not now, and not next year. LIke 2008, and 2009, and 2010, and 2011, the goal is to develop talent. So when you have it, you can go after the right free agents to fill in what you don't have. Just like Rizzo did and got us to a WS. Its not a unicorn future. We're already seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. No reason to continue to capitalize on this momentum and continue to build your farm depth, so you have quality prospects and players after Wood and House get called up. So you have quality prospects to trade for the next Sean Doolittle, or the next Gio Gonzalez.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #77: June 15, 2023, 02:47:00 PM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-fascinating-minor-league-translations-of-2023/

The one that pops out to me is Keston Hiura. I wonder how cheap we could pick him up for and give him some playing time. Maybe a Corey Dickerson? Looks like they could use OF or hitter help. Anderson's not having a great year, and I'm puzzled by Singleton, who they prefer over Hiura. Perhaps platoon with Anderson?

Online Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #78: June 15, 2023, 07:23:12 PM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-fascinating-minor-league-translations-of-2023/

The one that pops out to me is Keston Hiura. I wonder how cheap we could pick him up for and give him some playing time. Maybe a Corey Dickerson? Looks like they could use OF or hitter help. Anderson's not having a great year, and I'm puzzled by Singleton, who they prefer over Hiura. Perhaps platoon with Anderson?

But why? I mean, at best he's a RHP platoon option at first base. Over the last two seasons, he has a 40% K rate. Including 2020, its over 35%. Brewers are starved for offense. If Hiura had any, he'd be on the big league squad. He had a great 2019 and never got anywhere near that performance again.

Honestly, I'd rather just take shots at lottery picks. 16-20 year olds in rookie ball or lower.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #79: June 15, 2023, 07:37:35 PM »
115 ops+ last year. 26. Could be 2021 was the off year. The k rate is the :couch: but it's down in aaa. I don't know why he's not up now. Like I said, I am surprised at even thinking it might help.

Online Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #80: June 15, 2023, 09:10:02 PM »
115 ops+ last year. 26. Could be 2021 was the off year. The k rate is the :couch: but it's down in aaa. I don't know why he's not up now. Like I said, I am surprised at even thinking it might help.

Milwaukee is a worse offense than the Nats and they don't want this guy on the big league roster

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #81: June 15, 2023, 10:13:01 PM »
Szymborski:

Quote
I remain perplexed by how the Brewers use Hiura. When his contact struggles were at their worst, they were extremely generous with the opportunities, but as his contact rate showed progress and his overall numbers improved, they’ve seemed less and less interested in having him on the roster. Given how awful Milwaukee’s offense has been, it seems absurd that the team isn’t looking at Hiura again; if the Brew Crew isn’t interested, I think another team who wants a high-risk upside play ought to be, and I doubt the asking price would be very much at this point. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ in the majors last year would actually lead the team right now (except for Abraham Toro’s 287 in nine plate appearances).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-fascinating-minor-league-translations-of-2023/

Online imref

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #82: June 18, 2023, 08:02:08 AM »
The dodgers have. 5.11 bullpen era. Seems like they would be a good trade partner.

Online nobleisthyname

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #83: June 18, 2023, 09:13:09 AM »
The dodgers have. 5.11 bullpen era. Seems like they would be a good trade partner.

Who could we trade? Just Finnegan and Edwards or is someone else in our pen on the trade block?

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #84: June 18, 2023, 09:57:52 AM »
Who could we trade? Just Finnegan and Edwards or is someone else in our pen on the trade block?
Everyone is on the trade block, for the right price.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #85: June 18, 2023, 11:09:50 AM »
Everyone is on the trade block, for the right price.
better question is which contender with a poor bullpen think that one of our relievers is an upgrade over what they have, and what would they be willing to part with in a deal.

If a team came asking for one of Harvey, Thompson, and Williams (who was an excellent reliever last year), you'd have to listen.  Edwards brings veteranny goodness, and Finnegan has that hard sinker, so teams could be interested. Only guy on that list I'd drive a hard bargain for is Harvey.

Offline GataNats

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #86: June 18, 2023, 11:09:02 PM »
better question is which contender with a poor bullpen think that one of our relievers is an upgrade over what they have, and what would they be willing to part with in a deal.

If a team came asking for one of Harvey, Thompson, and Williams (who was an excellent reliever last year), you'd have to listen.  Edwards brings veteranny goodness, and Finnegan has that hard sinker, so teams could be interested. Only guy on that list I'd drive a hard bargain for is Harvey.

Finnegan is better then Harvey

Online Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #87: June 18, 2023, 11:20:34 PM »
Finnegan is better then Harvey
Numbers say otherwise

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #88: June 19, 2023, 09:30:48 AM »
Numbers say otherwise
Hoe many years of control do they both have? That seems key to any deal.

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #89: June 19, 2023, 09:50:27 AM »
Looking at Finnegan since May 1: 2.70   ERA / 3.58 FIP. Seems he's been helped by good defense. He has only allowed runs in 3 of 16 appearances. I would think he'll be of value as a bullpen piece for a contender.

Harvey is the reverse: 3.63 ERA / 3.22 FIP. Runs allowed in 2 of 16 appearances.

Online Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #90: June 19, 2023, 10:31:36 AM »
Hoe many years of control do they both have? That seems key to any deal.
Both have two more seasons after this one.

The difference is Finnegan will be 32 at the end of this season and Harvey will be 29. Also, Finnegan has pretty much maxed out (and one could argue he is already on the decline) where as Harvey had not yet. Harvey has a lot more value because of these two factors.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #91: June 19, 2023, 10:42:30 AM »
Hoe many years of control do they both have? That seems key to any deal.
They both have 2 more years of control. Finnegan had 3 years of service at the start of the year, Harvey had 3 years plus 47 days. Finnegan turns 32 in September. Harvey is 3 years younger (turns 29 in December).

Not that Finnegan is unaffordable, but he make s$2.3 million while Harvey makes $870K. I think it's fair to expect Harvey to get a big raise next year, but Finnegan will make more coming off a much higher base.

Rainey is in the same bucket for service time with 2 more rounds of arbitration. he turns 31 in December.  For completeness, Edwards turns 32 in September, same age as Finnegan.  He's a free agent at the end of the year.

Offline welch

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #92: June 19, 2023, 10:59:24 AM »
For completeness, Edwards turns 32 in September, same age as Finnegan.  He's a free agent at the end of the year.

That makes Edwards a rental, and worth much less than the others.

However, are any of the relievers so good that trading them they would return someone more valuable?

Online Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #93: June 19, 2023, 11:07:32 AM »
They both have 2 more years of control. Finnegan had 3 years of service at the start of the year, Harvey had 3 years plus 47 days. Finnegan turns 32 in September. Harvey is 3 years younger (turns 29 in December).

Not that Finnegan is unaffordable, but he make s$2.3 million while Harvey makes $870K. I think it's fair to expect Harvey to get a big raise next year, but Finnegan will make more coming off a much higher base.

Rainey is in the same bucket for service time with 2 more rounds of arbitration. he turns 31 in December.  For completeness, Edwards turns 32 in September, same age as Finnegan.  He's a free agent at the end of the year.
If Rainey were healthy, I'd say make him available at the deadline too.

Online Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #94: June 19, 2023, 11:07:51 AM »
That makes Edwards a rental, and worth much less than the others.

However, are any of the relievers so good that trading them they would return someone more valuable?
Yes.

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #95: June 19, 2023, 11:22:24 AM »
Both have two more seasons after this one.

The difference is Finnegan will be 32 at the end of this season and Harvey will be 29. Also, Finnegan has pretty much maxed out (and one could argue he is already on the decline) where as Harvey had not yet. Harvey has a lot more value because of these two factors.
quicker than me :)

I don't think it's extreme cherry picking to throw out the first two series of the year vs the Barves and Rays for any of the Nats. It belongs in a Fire Davey thread to say this team has never been ready out of the spring under him.  Camels, as PB69 would say.

Do that for Finnegan and he's having a fine season in line with his best season. Since 4/7, he's 11.1 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 50% GB, Hr/FB10%, 2.22 ERA / 2.99 FIP / 3.22 xFIP. Counting stats have him at 3-2, with 10 saves and 3 holds, 30 K, 8 BB over 24.1 IP. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-finnegan/15009/game-log?position=P&season=&gds=2023-04-07&gde=2023-06-15&type=0.  For rate stats, that's better or virtually equal to his career bests (9.85  K/9 in 2020, 2.97 BB/9 in 2022, 50.8% GB in 2020, and 11.1% HR/FB (2020). I don't think the case can be made that he's on a down-slope other than chronologically, which should not be a factor at the deadline.

With Harvey, you don't need to cherry pick at all in terms of overall numbers. He's just had a couple of very memorable blow up 3 run homers that makes folks nervous when he comes in.  Even in the Houston series, he's been hurt by fielding as much as anything he did.

style-wise, Finnegan is much more dependent on just his heater, which I guess is properly a 2 seam fastball that is distinct from a slower split and his slider. velo is up this year.  Harvey throws a 4 seam, a 2 seam, and 2 devastating breaking pitches. His stuff is just better and more varied. That said, the results are similar, so maybe there's something to attitude / head?

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #96: June 19, 2023, 11:30:59 AM »
quicker than me :)

I don't think it's extreme cherry picking to throw out the first two series of the year vs the Barves and Rays for any of the Nats. It belongs in a Fire Davey thread to say this team has never been ready out of the spring under him.  Camels, as PB69 would say.

Do that for Finnegan and he's having a fine season in line with his best season. Since 4/7, he's 11.1 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 50% GB, Hr/FB10%, 2.22 ERA / 2.99 FIP / 3.22 xFIP. Counting stats have him at 3-2, with 10 saves and 3 holds, 30 K, 8 BB over 24.1 IP. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-finnegan/15009/game-log?position=P&season=&gds=2023-04-07&gde=2023-06-15&type=0.  For rate stats, that's better or virtually equal to his career bests (9.85  K/9 in 2020, 2.97 BB/9 in 2022, 50.8% GB in 2020, and 11.1% HR/FB (2020). I don't think the case can be made that he's on a down-slope other than chronologically, which should not be a factor at the deadline.

With Harvey, you don't need to cherry pick at all in terms of overall numbers. He's just had a couple of very memorable blow up 3 run homers that makes folks nervous when he comes in.  Even in the Houston series, he's been hurt by fielding as much as anything he did.

style-wise, Finnegan is much more dependent on just his heater, which I guess is properly a 2 seam fastball that is distinct from a slower split and his slider. velo is up this year.  Harvey throws a 4 seam, a 2 seam, and 2 devastating breaking pitches. His stuff is just better and more varied. That said, the results are similar, so maybe there's something to attitude / head?

All of Finnegan's peripherals indicate he's getting really lucky. FIP and xERA over 4.75. Average EV of 93mph, xBA/xSLG of .255/.452. His slider is getting destroyed. Finnegan is basically a one pitch pitcher with no command and hit or miss control. Its why I said that if anyone offers you anything good, you take it and run. Just like the Nats did with Brad Hand

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #97: June 19, 2023, 11:42:04 AM »
They both have 2 more years of control. Finnegan had 3 years of service at the start of the year, Harvey had 3 years plus 47 days. Finnegan turns 32 in September. Harvey is 3 years younger (turns 29 in December).

Not that Finnegan is unaffordable, but he make s$2.3 million while Harvey makes $870K. I think it's fair to expect Harvey to get a big raise next year, but Finnegan will make more coming off a much higher base.

Rainey is in the same bucket for service time with 2 more rounds of arbitration. he turns 31 in December.  For completeness, Edwards turns 32 in September, same age as Finnegan.  He's a free agent at the end of the year.
Thanks.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #98: June 19, 2023, 11:50:37 AM »
All of Finnegan's peripherals indicate he's getting really lucky. FIP and xERA over 4.75. Average EV of 93mph, xBA/xSLG of .255/.452. His slider is getting destroyed. Finnegan is basically a one pitch pitcher with no command and hit or miss control. Its why I said that if anyone offers you anything good, you take it and run. Just like the Nats did with Brad Hand
which is why I threw out the first week. It really poisons some of his overall numbers. certainly FIP, and I assume xFIP and xERA. His velocity is the highest it's ever been since then. I really don't think he was ready coming into the season.  Whether it's Davey or himself, there's something wrong with the approach to the spring, i think. That should have minimal impact on evaluating him now or going into the deadline.

BTW - Harvey was ready from the get go. 

I don't disagree that finnegan is a one pitch pitcher, and top closers usually have 2 effective ones.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #99: June 19, 2023, 11:53:29 AM »
So we’ve identified the Dodgers a team with bullpen needs.  They seem to be a good trade partner as their system always seems deep. What other teams may be in the market for relief help?  Here’s a list by team ERA. As you would expect the better teams generally have the Bette bullpens. I see the Phillies are middle of the pack but most of their guys are rounding into shape. They have more of a need for a fifth starter. 

https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/statistics/team-bullpenera/2023