August 2nd, 22, a date that will live in Infamy: Juan Soto traded to the Padres

[Smithian]

kind of curious to ask, given what we've seen since the trade, if the Padres offered to undo it, would you agree?

TBD. Had it been the Hosmer, I’d be leaning “Yes”

But Voit isn’t poison and I’m buying Susana stock.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think there are more ways for the deal to work out for the Nats with the trade than without it (reversing it). We got a premium from SD because they are in a playoff race, so we'd be giving that up. The Nats need a couple of guys to be major pieces, but there are a lot of ways that can happen.

If I could keep Susana for Bell, and you told me that we'd sign a premium SS this offseason, I think it would be a closer call. Meneses would be at first, and we'd have essentially Soto and a Trea-like SS in 2023. Easier to augment that. OF FA would be needed, but not a big signing.

[Slateman]

I still think the deal was light and it would have been available in the offseason.

[Five Banners]

I still think the deal was light and it would have been available in the offseason.

Yep, and likely yep — and maybe even better with more bidding

[Smithian]

Yep, and likely yep — and maybe even better with more bidding

The unknowable for now question is if the new ownership group wanted Soto question answered before they signed on. Eventually over the years, we will get that detail through leaks.

If prospective owners didn’t want to move him, I think Rizzo could have held until the offseason when things would have unclogged a bit and teams with full OFs could have moved a piece. Still, I don’t think this package was bad. If the Nationals have a good medical eval on Gore, then Gore-Abrams-Woods-Hassell for Soto isn’t easy to beat. Two young major leaguers with control, two high upside prospects. I think it could be beaten. I’m not certain it would be, especially if Soto didn’t have a big second half.

[Kevrock]

kind of curious to ask, given what we've seen since the trade, if the Padres offered to undo it, would you agree?

Nope.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nope.

He's an idiot, but I thought I saw Bowden have Wood, Hasell, and I think Susana in his top 50, maybe top 30, and that didn't include Abrams because he had hit his rookie limits.  That is a heck of a haul. IF they are down on the better prospect among the NYY shortstops (forget his name) and St Louis / LAD aren't trading young major leaguers with lots of control, it's going to be hard to beat that package.  I also think there was a contender premium built into the deal, plus the extra year of pennant races, and that's not something you would get in an offseason deal.  Waiting for more bidders I don't think gets the package bid up in a bigger auction.

That said, I think maybe the smart move for SD is to deal him and restock their system.  Everything folks are saying about more interested teams and the Nats waiting would apply for SD in the off-season.   

[Smithian]

He's an idiot, but I thought I saw Bowden have Wood, Hasell, and I think Susana in his top 50, maybe top 30, and that didn't include Abrams because he had hit his rookie limits.  That is a heck of a haul. IF they are down on the better prospect among the NYY shortstops (forget his name) and St Louis / LAD aren't trading young major leaguers with lots of control, it's going to be hard to beat that package.  I also think there was a contender premium built into the deal, plus the extra year of pennant races, and that's not something you would get in an offseason deal.  Waiting for more bidders I don't think gets the package bid up in a bigger auction.

That said, I think maybe the smart move for SD is to deal him and restock their system.  Everything folks are saying about more interested teams and the Nats waiting would apply for SD in the off-season.   

Bowden also said the Nationals should give Ruiz back to the Dodgers. Insane.

I don't think the Padres would like the Soto package this offseason. Teams would be a bit concerned why the Padres would want to let him go. And the horrible defensive performance this season paired with less than superhuman offense is not the make up of an elite player. That could change with a big finish to the season and a strong playoff performance.

[nfotiu]

Soto's performance this year has got to at least spook potential suitors.   When he was an amazing 19 or 20 year old, the question was about much better will he get.   Now he's about to turn 24 and the question is  can he get back to where he was.   If he finishes off the season playing like he is now, then his value has taken a huge hit.

[Natsinpwc]

Soto's performance this year has got to at least spook potential suitors.   When he was an amazing 19 or 20 year old, the question was about much better will he get.   Now he's about to turn 24 and the question is  can he get back to where he was.   If he finishes off the season playing like he is now, then his value has taken a huge hit.

He’s still headed for a 6 WAR season and will be right in his prime years when he signs his next contract.  The big money teams will be willing to spend on him.

[Natsinpwc]

Soto is tied for ninth with Freddie in offensive bWAR at 5.0.  In an off-season.  Not really much different than Harper after his 2015 MVP season.  And he still got a big deal.

Also his OPS+ this year is 151 which is higher than either his 2018 or 2019 regular seasons. So not sure where the narrative that he is much worse now than when he was 19-20 comes from.

[Smithian]

He’s still headed for a 6 WAR season and will be right in his prime years when he signs his next contract.  The big money teams will be willing to spend on him.

Soto is tied for ninth with Freddie in offensive bWAR at 5.0.  In an off-season.  Not really much different than Harper after his 2015 MVP season.  And he still got a big deal.

Also his OPS+ this year is 151 which is higher than either his 2018 or 2019 regular seasons. So not sure where the narrative that he is much worse now than when he was 19-20 comes from.

I'm going by fWAR where his disaster in the field is pulling down his offense.

I think Juan Soto is elite. Everyone should. But the packages were not, "Elite player," they were for an all time, Mount Rushmore type hitter.

[welch]

OK. Maybe Juan Soto is not the next Ted Williams.

[Slateman]

I'm going by fWAR where his disaster in the field is pulling down his offense.

I think Juan Soto is elite. Everyone should. But the packages were not, "Elite player," they were for an all time, Mount Rushmore type hitter.

Juan Soto has elite hitting capability. He will always be an average or worse outfielder. He's one poorly played flyball away from being Yordan Alvarez. But his bat is HoF capable and he has that speciak knack for the big hit

[zimm_da_kid]

He's an idiot, but I thought I saw Bowden have Wood, Hasell, and I think Susana in his top 50, maybe top 30, and that didn't include Abrams because he had hit his rookie limits.  That is a heck of a haul. IF they are down on the better prospect among the NYY shortstops (forget his name) and St Louis / LAD aren't trading young major leaguers with lots of control, it's going to be hard to beat that package.  I also think there was a contender premium built into the deal, plus the extra year of pennant races, and that's not something you would get in an offseason deal.  Waiting for more bidders I don't think gets the package bid up in a bigger auction.

That said, I think maybe the smart move for SD is to deal him and restock their system.  Everything folks are saying about more interested teams and the Nats waiting would apply for SD in the off-season.   

I’ll give them house, Rutledge, De la Rosa, Lara, and Finnegan

[UMDNats]

.773 OPS for the Padres. Sick trade Preller!

What if Soto is just a .240-.260/.400-.450/.450-480 hitter moving forward? Won't be me jumping to give him half a billion dollars. A damn good hitter but someone else can pay that DH $40 million a year.

[nobleisthyname]

kind of curious to ask, given what we've seen since the trade, if the Padres offered to undo it, would you agree?

No, but I would still have preferred a Soto extension. I'm still not convinced the players we got will put up half the career WAR combined that Soto will over the course of his career.

[UMDNats]

I still think the deal was light and it would have been available in the offseason.

No other team other than the Padres had to juice to make the move. We basically had one real suitor. Yankees, Dodgers and Cardinals never make the leap IMO.

[Slateman]

.773 OPS for the Padres. Sick trade Preller!

What if Soto is just a .240-.260/.400-.450/.450-480 hitter moving forward? Won't be me jumping to give him half a billion dollars. A damn good hitter but someone else can pay that DH $40 million a year.

I think we know he's more than that. But its pretty obvious that teams are taking advantage of the strike zone and are perfectly willing to walk him, and he's to disciplined to expand. I think he will rectify this in the future. I dont think he's a perennial. 300+ hitter, but I dont think he's a sub .260 hitter either.

[Smithian]

.773 OPS for the Padres. Sick trade Preller!

What if Soto is just a .240-.260/.400-.450/.450-480 hitter moving forward? Won't be me jumping to give him half a billion dollars. A damn good hitter but someone else can pay that DH $40 million a year.

You just summed up the downside risk of the $500 million contact.

[Elvir Ovcina]

He's an idiot, but I thought I saw Bowden have Wood, Hasell, and I think Susana in his top 50, maybe top 30, and that didn't include Abrams because he had hit his rookie limits.  That is a heck of a haul. IF they are down on the better prospect among the NYY shortstops (forget his name) and St Louis / LAD aren't trading young major leaguers with lots of control, it's going to be hard to beat that package.  I also think there was a contender premium built into the deal, plus the extra year of pennant races, and that's not something you would get in an offseason deal.  Waiting for more bidders I don't think gets the package bid up in a bigger auction.

That said, I think maybe the smart move for SD is to deal him and restock their system.  Everything folks are saying about more interested teams and the Nats waiting would apply for SD in the off-season.

Bowden is an idiot.  There's a reason most top-50s are heavily weighted towards upper-minors guys. Combined between Fangraphs and MLB, there is exactly one pitcher below AA in a top-50 (MLB has Jackson Jobe at 41, and he's posted an ERA under 1 in a small sample in A+ and just turned 20). 

[nobleisthyname]

Bowden is an idiot.  There's a reason most top-50s are heavily weighted towards upper-minors guys. Combined between Fangraphs and MLB, there is exactly one pitcher below AA in a top-50 (MLB has Jackson Jobe at 41, and he's posted an ERA under 1 in a small sample in A+ at age 20).

Is there a separate MLB list than MLB pipeline? That one has both Hassell and Green in the top-30.

[UMDNats]

I think we know he's more than that. But its pretty obvious that teams are taking advantage of the strike zone and are perfectly willing to walk him, and he's to disciplined to expand. I think he will rectify this in the future. I dont think he's a perennial. 300+ hitter, but I dont think he's a sub .260 hitter either.

What if the de-juiced ball has a bigger impact on him because so much of his power is oppo?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Is there a separate MLB list than MLB pipeline? That one has both Hassell and Green in the top-30.

Nope, but the point was more about Susana than Hassell (who, yeah, I think is ranked too high), and Green isn't really part of the issue as he wasn't part of the trade.

[nobleisthyname]

Nope, but the point was more about Susana than Hassell (who, yeah, I think is ranked too high), and Green isn't really part of the issue as he wasn't part of the trade.

I believe Wood is also top-50 according to MLB, around 35 IIRC.

I don't disagree with your main point btw, but I think MLB is also a bit too high on recent draftees/low minors prospects.