From Alex Speier's email blast (Extra bases from Boston.com).. Something to think about when discussing Scherzer (too late) and Strasburg, as well as JZ and even Gio (whether to re-sign him after this contract).
RADAR GUN RISK: Former Red Sox trainer Mike Reinold offered a thoughtful – and, in many ways, frightening – look at the injury risks presented by current velocity-obsessed throwing programs.
In essence, baseball looks like a sport that is cultivating velocity at the cost of longevity. The inventory of dominant late-innings relief arms has never been greater, but one wonders whether it’s coming at the expense of longevity.
As dramatic as the known risks of 30-something pitchers have been, based on the sort of analysis being provided by Reinold, it will be fascinating to see whether pitching primes begin to shift – and whether the most pronounced dropoffs for pitchers begin to start earlier.
Just a few years ago, it wasn’t uncommon to see a wealth of pitchers sustaining excellence into their thirties. In 2000, for instance, the average age of the 20 most valuable pitchers (as measured by Baseball-Reference.com’s WAR) was 31.0 years old; 10 pitchers age 32 or older were worth 4.0 WAR or more. Ten years ago, in 2006, the top-20 pitchers by WAR were, on average, 28.9 years old.
Average age of Top 20 pitchers
Rated by wins above replacement
Year
Average age / Number of
Top 20 bWAR/ 4+ WAR, age 32+
2015 27.9 1
2014 27.6 1
2013 28.1 5
2012 28 4
2011 27.8 2
2010 27.7 5
2009 27.4 6
2008 27.1 3
2007 27.4 1
2006 28.9 4
2005 30.3 8
2004 29.5 5
2003 28.9 8
2002 29.1 7
2001 29.1 8
2000 31 10
SOURCE: Sources
By contrast, in 2015, the average age of the top-20 pitchers was fully a year younger – 27.9 – than it had been in 2006, and only one pitcher – 36-year-old John Lackey – posted a WAR of 4.0 or better at age 32 or older.
