Patrick Corbin Consternation Thread

[Slateman]

the simple short term answer is that kuhl and espino  are the current depth starters.

beyond the next couple weeks, the longer anser is the ability of Irvin to pitch adequately as an mlb starter, the health of Henry, and the growth of Rutledge and Bennett are some of the potential moves forward. I'm not giving up on Adon, either. beyond that, you are looking for fill in types, which include Kuhl, Espino, Abbott, and Tetreault.  there's also always other teams cuts who still have an arm attached.  i don't think "who is going to backfill for Williams?" factors in at all in the decisionmaking.

Henry, Rutledge, and Bennett all are on innings limits. Maybe if you bring Rutledge up in July, but thats only handful of innings.

If Rizzo legitmately dumps Corbin, you can sign whoever you want and pitch them. Or gonto Espono and Adon. Or Abbott. Honestly, Gore will be shut down so who cares

[welch]

Corbin should not have pitched that last inning, or certainly should have been pulled after the first hard contact. Erasmo bumped Corbin's ERA, but, otherwise last night was a decent start. Today's Post explains why Davey went to Erasmo...bullpen is worn down. We would add that Mason Thompson has looked off, and Machado will be "that guy" from the Padres series, at least for a long time.

Corbin seems to be pitching respectably. No reason to trade him off and to put MLB pressure on the young guys who are still learning, and, like Henry, recovering from injuries. Rutledge needs more innings without injury, and Bennett just got to Wilmington. Tetreault, if he is to be somebody, has just started pitching at Fredericksburg. Abbott and Adon are meandering at Rochester...I watched an inning of Adon, and it was painful before they pulled him.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

he is not getting traded in 2023.

dude tried to take one for the team by going out there in the 7th.  with 3 relievers  available and thompson as an emergency guy, i could possibly see wanting kuhl to be the last guy out of the pen, but with a 6 run lead, I would have tried to go kuhl at the start of the 7th  and hope i get 3 innings from him, or two and a mop up with edwards or ramirez. i think corbin's start was better than the numbers overall because you can't hold the 7th against him

[Slateman]

Yea, say what you want about Corbin, he has always answered the bell.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yea, say what you want about Corbin, he has always answered the bell.

yes. there were a lot of times the past couple years davey left him out to when he was off to eat innings and save the pen

[readonly]

No consternation today.

[imref]

Extend Corbin!!

[Slateman]

Vintage Corbin today

[catocony]

I think that for the most part, he's back to being a decent pitcher.  Is he worth the contract?  No.  Does he deserve to be in the rotation regardless of his contract?  Yeah, he does. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He seems more capable of going 6+ innings than any of the other starters

[imref]

In a perfect world he’s a sub-4 ERA pitcher next year and we move him at the deadline

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I think we can/should go into next season attempting to put together a roster that has a chance to be .500 or above.  We need someone who can make his 32 starts and go around 6 IP each time around a 4 ERA or so and give us a chance to win those starts.  Corbin obviously has a contract that pays for Ace production, but after the way 2020-2022 went, I'm very happy to be getting what we've got this year and hope it continues next year in his final year of his deal. 

[Natsinpwc]

I think we can/should go into next season attempting to put together a roster that has a chance to be .500 or above.  We need someone who can make his 32 starts and go around 6 IP each time around a 4 ERA or so and give us a chance to win those starts.  Corbin obviously has a contract that pays for Ace production, but after the way 2020-2022 went, I'm very happy to be getting what we've got this year and hope it continues next year in his final year of his deal.

What makes you think the owners will pay for that when they are already paying for Corbin and Williams?  I would like to see this also but setting expectations low until there is some indication that the team is sold or the Lerners want to stay in the baseball business.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

What makes you think the owners will pay for that when they are already paying for Corbin and Williams?  I would like to see this also but setting expectations low until there is some indication that the team is sold or the Lerners want to stay in the baseball business.

I'm talking about Corbin being the making 32 starts going 6 IP guy next year.

[catocony]

What makes you think the owners will pay for that when they are already paying for Corbin and Williams?  I would like to see this also but setting expectations low until there is some indication that the team is sold or the Lerners want to stay in the baseball business.

Do you guys forget on purpose that the Lerners paid for a high payroll for over a decade to put a winning team on the field?  The team goes through a rebuild for two seasons and the assumption is that Nats are now a small-market team like Pittsburg and KC? 

[Natsinpwc]

Do you guys forget on purpose that the Lerners paid for a high payroll for over a decade to put a winning team on the field?  The team goes through a rebuild for two seasons and the assumption is that Nats are now a small-market team like Pittsburg and KC?

Have you forgotten what has happened the last couple of years?  They own a baseball team they no longer want to own. I hope Rizzo can talk them into spending as a way to drive up the value of the team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm talking about Corbin being the making 32 starts going 6 IP guy next year.

If Corbin is capable of 192 innings of 4.50 ERA or less next year, I would hope he's gone by the trade deadline. That amounts to an innings-eating horse who should be dealt and who could be dealt were the Nats to pick up 2/3 of the ~ $12 million he'd be due for the last 2 months of his contract. Provided that the Nats don't make a big pitching signing this off-season, I'm hoping the rotation after 8/1 will have 5 of Gore, Gray, Cavalli, Irvin, Rutledge, Adon, Herz, and maybe Parker or somebody else. Of course, that's a bit of prospect sunshine that every home fan thinks about guys in their system. 

[Mattionals]

If Corbin is capable of 192 innings of 4.50 ERA or less next year, I would hope he's gone by the trade deadline. That amounts to an innings-eating horse who should be dealt and who could be dealt were the Nats to pick up 2/3 of the ~ $12 million he'd be due for the last 2 months of his contract. Provided that the Nats don't make a big pitching signing this off-season, I'm hoping the rotation after 8/1 will have 5 of Gore, Gray, Cavalli, Irvin, Rutledge, Adon, Herz, and maybe Parker or somebody else. Of course, that's a bit of prospect sunshine that every home fan thinks about guys in their system.

Interestingly enough, if you take the average innings per start for each starter, and try to linearly predict how many innings they will get to, there will only likely be between 3 and 5 pitchers who would surpass 200 innings this year. I bet much fancier models will have the number of pitchers who pass 200 innings closer to say maybe 6-8, but it's more likely that we see less pitchers passing over 200 innings from last year, and we might even hit 2021 where there were only 4 pitchers who exceeded 200 innings.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interestingly enough, if you take the average innings per start for each starter, and try to linearly predict how many innings they will get to, there will only likely be between 3 and 5 pitchers who would surpass 200 innings this year. I bet much fancier models will have the number of pitchers who pass 200 innings closer to say maybe 6-8, but it's more likely that we see less pitchers passing over 200 innings from last year, and we might even hit 2021 where there were only 4 pitchers who exceeded 200 innings.

I think 200+ innings is mostly an illusion in modern baseball. 180 is a lot. in 2022, only 45 pitchers hit 162 innings. 27 hit 180, or < 1 per team.

[catocony]

Have you forgotten what has happened the last couple of years?  They own a baseball team they no longer want to own. I hope Rizzo can talk them into spending as a way to drive up the value of the team.

So you extrapolate from there that to maximize their resell value, they want to keep the team losing?  It makes zero sense.

The Lerners are real estate developers.  Buy low, sell high.  That's fine, and that's the case here.  However, as in real estate, you don't let the building go to rust while it's on the market.

They're not spending money on purpose because Rizzo is focused on rebuilding the entire minor league system. 

[Natsinpwc]

So you extrapolate from there that to maximize their resell value, they want to keep the team losing?  It makes zero sense.

Not extrapolating anything. They have not been spending the past two years. Without the Corbin and Strasburg contracts the Nats have become the As.

Why are you extrapolating from what they did in the previous decade?  They have their title.  Cutting costs is what seems important now. Do you have any source that they plan to keep the team?

I hope I am wrong and you are right. We will see in the off-season. I really have no idea what the long term plan is.

[catocony]

First, they had an almost $200 million payroll in 2021.  That was after the cratoring in 2020.  Second, they did try and sign Soto to a massive contract last year, and did spend $15 million on the worst DH in the Bigs.  So even last year, they were still trying to win and spent some to make it happen. 

They didn't spend much this year because again, they weren't really trying to win but to continue the minor league rebuild. 

The As are the As because they are on the poor side of the Bay, have a crappy stadium deal in a crappy stadium, and have a much smaller fan base than the Giants who play 10 miles away.  The As are moving to Vegas because structurally they have very limited revenue in Oakland.  KC is in the same boat, Pittsburg is in the same boat. 

DC is not the poor side of Baltimore, nor is the stadium crappy.  Comparisons to the As or Royals or Pirates AFTER 1.5 SEASONS is just silly.  Those teams have been structurally deficient for 30-50 years or longer.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dont-swallow-the-fip/

Terrific piece from Michael Baumann at FG on what Patrick Corbin has gone through and done under this contract. There's some analytics to describe his improvement since 2022 but most of it is about the arc of high to low to an end and potential new beginning after the contract that defines him.  Normally, I excerpt, but the whole thing is a great read.

[imref]

Corbin is now 9-11 with a 4.70 ERA. That's quite the improvement from last year (6-19, 6.31)