Follow the Prospects: James Wood, OF

[Natsinpwc]

He’s had 30 ABs against lefties this year. So how many more does he need?  A season? 

[nobleisthyname]

There is simply no precedent for someone having his struggles in Double A being a successful major leaguer.

What struggles are you referring to, specifically? He had an OPS over .820 in AA last season. He had a high K rate, yes, but so high we're in the territory of nobody with that high of a rate ever becoming a successful major leaguer? I have to admit I find that hard to believe.

Edit: I just double checked Joey Gallo's minor league stats. He struck out nearly 40% of time the first time he reached AA. So either you don't consider Gallo to be a successful major leaguer (which means your bar for successful major leaguer is very high), you're not referring to Wood's K rate when you refer to his AA struggles, or you're simply wrong 

[Slateman]

What struggles are you referring to, specifically? He had an OPS over .820 in AA last season. He had a high K rate, yes, but so high we're in the territory of nobody with that high of a rate ever becoming a successful major leaguer? I have to admit I find that hard to believe.

Edit: I just double checked Joey Gallo's minor league stats. He struck out nearly 40% of time the first time he reached AA. So either you don't consider Gallo to be a successful major leaguer (which means your bar for successful major leaguer is very high), you're not referring to Wood's K rate when you refer to his AA struggles, or you're simply wrong 

A strikeout rate that high for so long. Find me the person in Double A with over a 33% strikeout rate in 300 or more plate appearances that went on to a successful successful major league career

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

A strikeout rate that high for so long. Find me the person in Double A with over a 33% strikeout rate in 300 or more plate appearances that went on to a successful successful major league career

Judge and more recently De La Cruz come to mind as guys who had really high K rates in the minors.  What they share with Wood is that they absolutely smoke the ball when they do hit it, so the BABIP is high and they still are productive.

His K rate last year is irrelevant now anyway.  It’s way down this year in what is now a significant sample size compared to last year.  Elevating the ball more will lead to more home runs, a common problem for young power hitters.  Vlad Jr is an example, and even Soto had a high GB rate although he obviously still was great.

Many young LH hitters even when starting to hit well in the bigs have bad splits against lefties.  We aren’t platooning him, who are we platooning him with that just mashes lefties?  Robles?  He can work through his struggles against lefties without us giving up production from someone else.

[Slateman]

Judge and more recently De La Cruz come to mind as guys who had really high K rates in the minors.  What they share with Wood is that they absolutely smoke the ball when they do hit it, so the BABIP is high and they still are productive.

His K rate last year is irrelevant now anyway.  It’s way down this year in what is now a significant sample size compared to last year.  Elevating the ball more will lead to more home runs, a common problem for young power hitters.  Vlad Jr is an example, and even Soto had a high GB rate although he obviously still was great.

Many young LH hitters even when starting to hit well in the bigs have bad splits against lefties.  We aren’t platooning him, who are we platooning him with that just mashes lefties?  Robles?  He can work through his struggles against lefties without us giving up production from someone else.

You look up Judge and Elly's strike out rate and get back to me

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

You look up Judge and Elly's strike out rate and get back to me

De La Cruz has long levers and a big strike zone. His strikeout rate of nearly 31% in 2022 ranked in the bottom 15% of all minor league hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. He was the only batting title qualifier to strike out at least 30% of the time while also hitting . 300.

[Slateman]

De La Cruz has long levers and a big strike zone. His strikeout rate of nearly 31% in 2022 ranked in the bottom 15% of all minor league hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. He was the only batting title qualifier to strike out at least 30% of the time while also hitting . 300.

Elly had a lower strikeout rate than Wood in Double A.

[Natsinpwc]

Elly had a lower strikeout rate than Wood in Double A.

Small sample size double A for Wood.  And it’s improved at a higher level this year.

[Slateman]

Small sample size double A for Wood.  And it’s improved at a higher level this year.

Its over 300 plate appearances

[nobleisthyname]

Elly had a lower strikeout rate than Wood in Double A.

31% vs 33% 

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

This is just stupid now. Its time. The team is competing and its silly to keep throwing at-bats away on guys that have no future with the club and are LITERAL holes in the lineup.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This is just stupid now. Its time. The team is competing and its silly to keep throwing at-bats away on guys that have no future with the club and are LITERAL holes in the lineup.

how dare you call Mr. May a current hole in the lineup.

Rosario in May: 20 PA, .375 / ,474 / .750, 2 HR, 2 SB

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Hit another homerun tonight.

[imref]

SB too. .995 OPS

[Natsinpwc]

But was the HR off of a lefty?

[GataNats]

Get him up.  And House.   Cut Senzel and Rosario

[rileyn]

But was the HR off of a lefty?

Yes.

[Natsinpwc]

Yes.

Excellent.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Patrick Reddington over at Federal Baseball usually gives extended quotes from Davey's post game pressers. he got most of what Davey had to say about calling up Wood and the whole Ks vs lefty thing:
https://www.federalbaseball.com/2024/5/9/24151955/washington-nationals-news-notes-nats-lose-to-orioles-7-6-in-extras-split-two-game-set-in-d-c

James Wood, who hit two home runs in Wednesday’s game with the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, now has four home runs on the year with the Nationals’ top minor league affiliate, and the No. 2 ranked prospect in Washington’s system (according to MLB Pipeline’s scouts) is now hitting .339 with a .973 OPS on the year in 31 games. So, when will the Nats bring the 2021 2nd Round pick (by the Padres; acquired by the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal in ‘22), up to the majors to make his MLB debut?

“I know he hit two home runs, and that’s great,” Nationals’ manager Davey Martinez said in his pregame presser before Wednesday night’s game. “He’s doing well, but there is a plan, and we’re going to do everything we can to stick to that plan, we really are. I mean, he needs to get a bunch of at-bats, he needs to learn some different things, we want him to get better against left-handed pitching, we want him to understand the baserunning stuff, all that stuff. So he’s striking out 33% of the time against lefties. So we really want him to work on that. I don’t want to bring him up here and platoon him. That’s for sure. He needs to play every day. But he’s doing well, and this is part of the process. I can be honest with you: I don’t want to be a fan, but if I was a fan, I can’t wait till he comes up here too. It’s going to be fun, but we got to be smart about it.”

It sounds like some specific things they want to test in the minors before a call up, with Ks vs lefties being the biggee. I'm not sure of the baserunning mention, and you don't see mentioned the GB/FB rate.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wood--009jam&type=bgl&year=2024
He's had 32 PAs vs lefties and struck out 10 times, walking 3 times. .207 / .281 / .448 is kind of atrocious, tbh. Thee 2 HR night on Thursday were off righties (BEeter, Morris), and the HR last night was off a lefty piece of meat that got plastered by everybody. There really is no way to play him in the majors right now against lefties off of that track record unless you want to have him get beat up and slip into the Carter Kieboom premature callup cycle.

K rate stabilizes after 60 PA. I could see them trying to get in 60 PA against lefties to see if it is a real problem. That still coincides with late May or early june, I think.

[imref]

such an effortless swing: https://x.com/granthpaulsen/status/1788703987354529979

[IanRubbish]

With the Nats, "there's a plan" is usually code for "Lerners don't want to part ways with a dollar they don't have to"

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With the Nats, "there's a plan" is usually code for "Lerners don't want to part ways with a dollar they don't have to"

tbh, I am kind of surprised how poorly he has been hitting lefties. I've not seen that in any article. .729 OPS that's not hollow (.241 ISO ), fine, but the low .200s AVG and .281 OBP should have folks a bit concerned. It puts me strongly in the camp of letting him get 100-150 more PAs in AAA so he has about 30- 45 more PAs against lefties.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

tbh, I am kind of surprised how poorly he has been hitting lefties. I've not seen that in any article. .729 OPS that's not hollow (.241 ISO ), fine, but the low .200s AVG and .281 OBP should have folks a bit concerned. It puts me strongly in the camp of letting him get 100-150 more PAs in AAA so he has about 30- 45 more PAs against lefties.

My take on this is what lefty masher is Wood taking ABs away from at the big league level?  However much worse he is against the occasional lefty than Robles or whoever your substitute bat against a lefty is, he’s likely to way more than make up for that against righties as an upgrade over some of the deadwood like Rosario, Meneses, Gallo, Robles, etc.

You can treat him like the Rangers with their star young rookie LH OF Evan Carter.  He was even worse against lefties in the minors.  They give him the occasional start against lefties, and he still is struggling, and other times they sit him then pinch hit him once a righty reliever comes in.

[IanRubbish]

This is just stupid now. Its time. The team is competing and its silly to keep throwing at-bats away on guys that have no future with the club and are LITERAL holes in the lineup.

Yup.

Also don't think the lefty/righty splits mean anything.   Jackson Holliday is nearly even in AAA vs. right/left and wasn't ready.  A lot of it's confidence.  But hard to see any other org doing this to him, and doubt any other org would be rolling out Rosario, Ruiz, etc as frequently as the Nats are. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

The Nats are back home May 20th against the Twins.  I’d keep an eye out on that being the day for Wood.