For some reason I'm not too comfortable picking a 17 year old, high schooler with a 100 MPH heater. Maybe I'm reading into Moneyball too much?
You are. Moneyball isn't about the fact that college players are inherently better than HS players or that guys who walk a lot are better than guys who look good in the uniform. Moneyball's really about two things:
1. Using definable, measurable things (stats) to measure performance
2. Recognizing and exploiting market inefficiencies that are arising because people aren't doing #1.
In the case of last night's draft, the "moneyball" move was to take Giolito (Can we call him Gio Light?). The market was passing by his talent because of signability or other concerns - the Nats, if they can sign him, got a top-5 pick at #16. That's exploiting a market inefficiency. At the end of the day, the team with the most talent tends to win - and if you can continue to get top-tier talent from mid-tier draft picks, that's how you stay on top.
I love the pick, as you can tell.
