I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)

[Elvir Ovcina]

Yeah the floor is higher across the board, but there is absolutely no ceiling. Gore flashed something to look forward to in his start, but outside of that it's really tough right now.

Yeah, the ceiling's not much higher than the floor almost across the board.  That's pretty much what I meant: there's no Anderson Hernandez but there's no Soto either.

[nobleisthyname]

I think you mean there is a ceiling?  As in, they're not as bad as last year, but probably as good right now as they'll ever be?

  I suppose Elvir saying the ceiling is barely above the floor is the better way to put it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

4 or 5 players might be better than they are now: Abrams, Ruiz (good now but I think could be really good if power appears), Smith (he had a great 2020, can he reach that with steady playing time at his preferred position), then I'd add Garcia (I have doubts) and Robles (doubtful but if he maintains his O it's 2019 Robles again).

Rotation has no upside other than Gore. Bullpen lacks a star, but OTOH I'm really intrigued by Thompson and Harvey.

[Elvir Ovcina]

4 or 5 players might be better than they are now: Abrams, Ruiz (good now but I think could be really good if power appears), Smith (he had a great 2020, can he reach that with steady playing time at his preferred position), then I'd add Garcia (I have doubts) and Robles (doubtful but if he maintains his O it's 2019 Robles again).

Rotation has no upside other than Gore. Bullpen lacks a star, but OTOH I'm really intrigued by Thompson and Harvey.

Gray's got some upside.  But I don't see any of those guys besides Ruiz, Gore, and maybe Robles (!) experiencing much of that boom case this season.

[imref]

So Vic has one more year, he's starting to hit, he can field.

Extend or trade?

[Mattionals]

So Vic has one more year, he's starting to hit, he can field.

Extend or trade?

Trade. If he has value, he needs to be moved. The hope is that there are enough OF prospects that could become a starting CF when this team is ready to compete. Above anything else right now, this team needs pitching.

[Slateman]

Gray's got some upside.  But I don't see any of those guys besides Ruiz, Gore, and maybe Robles (!) experiencing much of that boom case this season.

Gray has no upside as long as Rizzo is the GM

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I’m not really sure what you do with Robles if he keeps this up? Might be a good idea to approach him now for a deal similar to what you gave Ruiz if he’ll accept it? He’ll be 26 in a month so he’s still pretty young. Odd situation to be in.

interesting discussion point.

I think we went into the season thinking we'd be happy with a .240-.250 hitting Robles with his D. That sort of Robles had trade value because contenders look for that to round out outfields either as a backup or as a filler in a good offensive lineup between big boppers who can't field. Pache just was dealt to Philly in the first sort of deal.

However, if Robles is now adjusting his offensive game to avoid weak air contact and swinging at junk, hitting with 2019 results but a better approach, then he's much more useful. He's also signed to a dirt cheap option next year. That sort of guy is worth a heck of a lot more in a deal, and doesn't harm you to hold the fort until Hassell is ready, or maybe De La Rosa or Wood.

I think you take your lumps if you keep him through 2024 and this performance is real. You let him walk or try to keep him at market rate, depending on your view of your prospects.  You can't make a Ruiz deal because there are too few years of control to pay off in order to buy out free agent years.  Maybe you can do a deal to rip up the 2024 option in exchange for a less than FA price for 2025.  Lots of time to observe and for him to play before we make a call.

[Slateman]

So .... who had Robles as a .300+ hitter after the first ten games of the season?

[welch]

So .... who had Robles as a .300+ hitter after the first ten games of the season?

Not me. I now think of Robles as a useful ballplayer. If he is still hitting and throwing to the right base by late May, extend him a couple years.

[imref]

.370 / .469 / .913

[welch]

Victor with another hit. He is looking like the guy he was supposed to be.

[imref]

Now batting .406

[Slateman]

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, Victor Robles, the .424 hitter

[nfotiu]

We kept the real "Ted Williams"!

[Slateman]

We kept the real "Ted Williams"!

Yep, like we all predicted he would become

[nfotiu]

It's so hard to figure out what is mirage and what is real with Victor.   I really hope Davey doesn't move him to the top of the order.   

Slowly moving him up and seeing how it goes each step seems like it could work well.  My mindfact thought is that he gets all out of sorts when he's trying to do too much to live up to whatever expecations.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I 100% percent want him hitting 8th or 9th. I like the "2nd leadoff" hitter aspect of having a guy with speed on base in front of Call and Thomas or Candy.  There's a lot less pressure on him and he can stick to the game plan of swinging at strikes and just making contact, not lofting. I like more power at the top of the order, and I don't want him thinking home run.

[catocony]

Robles is too stupid to be good for an extended period of time.  From his baserunning to the successful yet show-off way he frequently handles routine popups, I don't think he takes the game seriously.  At all.  Leave him at the bottom of the lineup as long as he's producing, and trade him if he's still hitting well in July. 

I just dislike Robles, in a very general way.

[Slateman]

Huh, couldnt tell

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Robles is too stupid to be good for an extended period of time.  From his baserunning to the successful yet show-off way he frequently handles routine popups, I don't think he takes the game seriously.  At all.  Leave him at the bottom of the lineup as long as he's producing, and trade him if he's still hitting well in July. 

I just dislike Robles, in a very general way.

I think he may have gotten a wake up call when the Nats this off-season took a pretty hard line on his salary. He also seems more committed to taking a better hitting approach (shorter swing, less opening up and reaching, more selective). Maybe Coles reached him when Long didn't. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

I 100% percent want him hitting 8th or 9th. I like the "2nd leadoff" hitter aspect of having a guy with speed on base in front of Call and Thomas or Candy.  There's a lot less pressure on him and he can stick to the game plan of swinging at strikes and just making contact, not lofting. I like more power at the top of the order, and I don't want him thinking home run.

On a team like this, there's no reason to mess with something that's working.

Huh, couldnt tell

 

[imref]

another reminder that Vic is only 25.  Maybe he's a comparable to Byron Buxton? Equally touted, and Buxton was awful until his age 25 season in 2019 after coming into the league at age 21.

[blue911]

On a team like this, there's no reason to mess with something that's working.

 

If it’s not broke, don’t break it.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Golden:

Last year, hitting coach Darnell Coles worked on getting Robles’ hands higher in order to create a quicker path to the baseball. He also opened up his stance to better see the baseball and avoid chasing. But Coles said recently that Robles struggled with getting his hands through the baseball on time consistently. Robles finished last season with an average exit velocity of 84.6, which ranked in the bottom 1 percent of the league. It was the fourth year in a row that Robles finished in the bottom 1 percent, according to Baseball Savant.

This year, Robles’ hands are lower and his feet are wider. Coles believes that will allow him to have more control and recognize pitches that are out of the zone with a simpler approach. The Nationals also introduced a dodgeball this offseason to help Robles stay direct to the baseball instead of casting his arms out and swinging around the baseball. Keeping his hands inside the baseball has allowed him to hit the ball to the opposite field with more force more often.

“He’s in a better hitting position than he was last year, he’s on time,” Coles said. “He’s working more linear where he’s able to get through the ball and not rotational where he’s working around everything. The linear portion of his swing allows him to drive the ball to right-center field, not look to pull as often. And then when he gets a pitch inside, he just reacts and hits it hard.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/13/victor-robles-early-success-2023-season/

His Pull % has dropped from about 50% in 2020-21 to 31%, while his up the middle % has gone from about 30-31% the past couple of years to 45+% so far. In terms of contact, his medium velocity contact has dropped  9% and his hard hit contact is up 10%. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/victor-robles/18363/stats?position=OF

It's kind of odd to see a guy hit the ball harder by pulling less.