Author Topic: Break up the Juggernaut: 2022 Trade Deadline thoughts, & rumors  (Read 11141 times)

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Offline UMDNats

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That would be such an amazing haul for Josh Bell. Please make that happen.

Offline Section214

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well there's this:

https://www.mlb.com/news/trades-mlb-playoff-contenders-need-to-make

The writer (looks like a stringer on MLB.com) recognizes it is an overpay, but says the Astros are in a position to go for it.

That is an absurd haul for Bell. I would love for just a straight swap, heck I'd even give them one of the RPs to make it happen. They want to add to the deal on their side?? Yes please.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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I assume that if it was published on MLB.com, it may not be a lead writer in quality and sourcing, but it can't be so absurd that the editors would have said, "we'll keep the article as 6 deals and not 7."

Offline UMDNats

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I assume that if it was published on MLB.com, it may not be a lead writer in quality and sourcing, but it can't be so absurd that the editors would have said, "we'll keep the article as 6 deals and not 7."

There's no sourcing in it, just writer speculation. The standards aren't really as high as you think.

Online Slateman

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I assume that if it was published on MLB.com, it may not be a lead writer in quality and sourcing, but it can't be so absurd that the editors would have said, "we'll keep the article as 6 deals and not 7."
Dunno, that article says the Cards are getting Murphy and Montas Wynn and Libertore.

Offline Smithian

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That would be such an amazing haul for Josh Bell. Please make that happen.
I chuckled at that.

I don't expect a major leaguer or even a single Top 100 prospect. It'll be a useful return for the Nationals, but not amazing.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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I chuckled at that.

I don't expect a major leaguer or even a single Top 100 prospect. It'll be a useful return for the Nationals, but not amazing.
I mean, how much better is he than Schwarber last year at the deadline?  Not hurt, and a better average, yes, but Schwarber I think was showing better OBP and HRs.

Offline imref

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I mean, how much better is he than Schwarber last year at the deadline?  Not hurt, and a better average, yes, but Schwarber I think was showing better OBP and HRs.

Schwarber: .253 /.340 /.570, 25HRs, 303 PAs
Bell: .302 / .387 / .490, 13 HRs, 421 PAs

 

Offline catocony

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I mean, how much better is he than Schwarber last year at the deadline?  Not hurt, and a better average, yes, but Schwarber I think was showing better OBP and HRs.
Wasn't Kyle on the DL when traded? 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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DL watered down his trade value, and I got the OBP wrong. Big pluses for Schwarber was .080 on SLG, mostly due to the huge June HR surge. 1st half wOBA for Schwarber in 2021 was .380. Josh Bell's wOBA to date is .377.  I'll use that to say that they were approximately the same players offensively in terms of offensive value.  The big difference I think is Josh Bell is healthier.  with injuries, Schwarber brought back a guy who at the time of the trade was rated a 40+ FV player, ahead of Carrillo, Millas, and Adams, #19 out of 75 prospects traded at the deadline. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-during-the-2021-deadline/ . figure Bell gets a 45 or a 45+.  The higher value is just outside the top 100.  I assume you package him with Cishek, Edwards, or Finnegan, and you get a top 100 prospect.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Curious how folks would feel if the Nats announced an extension for Josh Bell for 4 years, $80 million this afternoon and said they are committed to starting 2023 with Juan Soto in the Nats line up.

Sort of an "f this, we are committed to a better product and, if the team is sold, it'll be to somebody committed to the same."

We'd go into next year with a catcher, a first baseman, and a rightfielder of pretty high quality already lined up.  Probably a second baseman (Garcia), DH (Yadi / Thomas), and a strong defensive CF (Robles) on board, and looking at 3 positions to fill (3B, LF, and SS). 

As for the pitching staff, still deal Edwards, Cishek, and Finnegan, but see what you have in Cavalli and hope that Cavalli, Gray, and Fedde are the start of a rotation, to which you can add a veteran who gives you 150+ innings of major league average performance and maybe a return of Espino or some other pieces at the back end (or perhaps spend a little on a better pitcher and move a few of these guys down the pecking order).  Use the rest of the year with Corbin in the pen, along with Arano, try Cronin and a few of the fringe roster relievers to see if there's something buried in the Weems / Thompson / Abott etc....  Maybe give Clip and Harris a shot too when healthy, figuring Clip and Doo will sign back if they have anything left.

I'd feel better if Henry were healthy and given an audition, too, but there's a small part of me that thinks that is less of an embarrassing floor than it's made out to be.

Offline imref

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Curious how folks would feel if the Nats announced an extension for Josh Bell for 4 years, $80 million this afternoon and said they are committed to starting 2023 with Juan Soto in the Nats line up.

Sort of an "f this, we are committed to a better product and, if the team is sold, it'll be to somebody committed to the same."

We'd go into next year with a catcher, a first baseman, and a rightfielder of pretty high quality already lined up.  Probably a second baseman (Garcia), DH (Yadi / Thomas), and a strong defensive CF (Robles) on board, and looking at 3 positions to fill (3B, LF, and SS). 

As for the pitching staff, still deal Edwards, Cishek, and Finnegan, but see what you have in Cavalli and hope that Cavalli, Gray, and Fedde are the start of a rotation, to which you can add a veteran who gives you 150+ innings of major league average performance and maybe a return of Espino or some other pieces at the back end (or perhaps spend a little on a better pitcher and move a few of these guys down the pecking order).  Use the rest of the year with Corbin in the pen, along with Arano, try Cronin and a few of the fringe roster relievers to see if there's something buried in the Weems / Thompson / Abott etc....  Maybe give Clip and Harris a shot too when healthy, figuring Clip and Doo will sign back if they have anything left.

I'd feel better if Henry were healthy and given an audition, too, but there's a small part of me that thinks that is less of an embarrassing floor than it's made out to be.

so you add Turner to that mix, and Musgrave, and....

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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so you add Turner to that mix, and Musgrave, and....
not much else.  One permanent middle of the diamond guy, one quality pitcher, and fill in with lower in the market corner players and relievers. Hope Carrillo is healthy, too.  At that point, other internal pieces like Henry or Tetrault aren't counted on but makes things easier if they pan out.

Online Natsinpwc

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Curious how folks would feel if the Nats announced an extension for Josh Bell for 4 years, $80 million this afternoon and said they are committed to starting 2023 with Juan Soto in the Nats line up.

Sort of an "f this, we are committed to a better product and, if the team is sold, it'll be to somebody committed to the same."

We'd go into next year with a catcher, a first baseman, and a rightfielder of pretty high quality already lined up.  Probably a second baseman (Garcia), DH (Yadi / Thomas), and a strong defensive CF (Robles) on board, and looking at 3 positions to fill (3B, LF, and SS). 

As for the pitching staff, still deal Edwards, Cishek, and Finnegan, but see what you have in Cavalli and hope that Cavalli, Gray, and Fedde are the start of a rotation, to which you can add a veteran who gives you 150+ innings of major league average performance and maybe a return of Espino or some other pieces at the back end (or perhaps spend a little on a better pitcher and move a few of these guys down the pecking order).  Use the rest of the year with Corbin in the pen, along with Arano, try Cronin and a few of the fringe roster relievers to see if there's something buried in the Weems / Thompson / Abott etc....  Maybe give Clip and Harris a shot too when healthy, figuring Clip and Doo will sign back if they have anything left.

I'd feel better if Henry were healthy and given an audition, too, but there's a small part of me that thinks that is less of an embarrassing floor than it's made out to be.
I’m fine with that. Sounds like Bell wants to stay and does not seem they will get much in a trade for him.

Offline UMDNats

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Curious how folks would feel if the Nats announced an extension for Josh Bell for 4 years, $80 million this afternoon and said they are committed to starting 2023 with Juan Soto in the Nats line up.

Sort of an "f this, we are committed to a better product and, if the team is sold, it'll be to somebody committed to the same."

We'd go into next year with a catcher, a first baseman, and a rightfielder of pretty high quality already lined up.  Probably a second baseman (Garcia), DH (Yadi / Thomas), and a strong defensive CF (Robles) on board, and looking at 3 positions to fill (3B, LF, and SS). 

As for the pitching staff, still deal Edwards, Cishek, and Finnegan, but see what you have in Cavalli and hope that Cavalli, Gray, and Fedde are the start of a rotation, to which you can add a veteran who gives you 150+ innings of major league average performance and maybe a return of Espino or some other pieces at the back end (or perhaps spend a little on a better pitcher and move a few of these guys down the pecking order).  Use the rest of the year with Corbin in the pen, along with Arano, try Cronin and a few of the fringe roster relievers to see if there's something buried in the Weems / Thompson / Abott etc....  Maybe give Clip and Harris a shot too when healthy, figuring Clip and Doo will sign back if they have anything left.

I'd feel better if Henry were healthy and given an audition, too, but there's a small part of me that thinks that is less of an embarrassing floor than it's made out to be.

That's like a 70-75 win team next year if everything goes perfectly.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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That's like a 70-75 win team next year if everything goes perfectly.
you know, I could live with that, although I think is closer to 75 wins +/- 5.  The ifs would be somewhat resolved this summer (Corbin in the pen, Cavalli in the rotation, etc...).  I'd like a 2010/2011 year next year.  Rebuild some momentum.  It'd still leave a hole before internal position prospects are ready, but we more or less don't have to be hopeless and just wait until 2027.

Online Natsinpwc

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That's like a 70-75 win team next year if everything goes perfectly.
You can’t make an estimate until you know who they sign for those other positions and maybe an additional starter. There is money to spend of new owners want to. Don’t forget Kieboom will be back/s.

Offline Section214

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Curious how folks would feel if the Nats announced an extension for Josh Bell for 4 years, $80 million this afternoon and said they are committed to starting 2023 with Juan Soto in the Nats line up.

Sort of an "f this, we are committed to a better product and, if the team is sold, it'll be to somebody committed to the same."

We'd go into next year with a catcher, a first baseman, and a rightfielder of pretty high quality already lined up.  Probably a second baseman (Garcia), DH (Yadi / Thomas), and a strong defensive CF (Robles) on board, and looking at 3 positions to fill (3B, LF, and SS). 

As for the pitching staff, still deal Edwards, Cishek, and Finnegan, but see what you have in Cavalli and hope that Cavalli, Gray, and Fedde are the start of a rotation, to which you can add a veteran who gives you 150+ innings of major league average performance and maybe a return of Espino or some other pieces at the back end (or perhaps spend a little on a better pitcher and move a few of these guys down the pecking order).  Use the rest of the year with Corbin in the pen, along with Arano, try Cronin and a few of the fringe roster relievers to see if there's something buried in the Weems / Thompson / Abott etc....  Maybe give Clip and Harris a shot too when healthy, figuring Clip and Doo will sign back if they have anything left.

I'd feel better if Henry were healthy and given an audition, too, but there's a small part of me that thinks that is less of an embarrassing floor than it's made out to be.

I have always been team "re-sign Bell at a reasonable rate". He's still young, he has been great since day 1 here and by trading him, 1B becomes an immediate massive need. You also have to wonder if the return we get on him will be better than the compensation pick we get if he leaves next offseason.

Unless the offer is really strong, I would love to sign Bell, show Juan that we aren't just completely bottoming out and try to re-sign him this offseason. Go get two more bats in the offseason to go with the five guys you mentioned and the lineup will be solid.

The pitching staff... well, that's another conversation.

Offline Duke of Earl

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Curious how folks would feel if the Nats announced an extension for Josh Bell for 4 years, $80 million .....

Nice fantasy, his agent is Boras;  he's not going to settle for that.

But to answer your question, I'd be happy.

Offline UMDNats

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you know, I could live with that, although I think is closer to 75 wins +/- 5.  The ifs would be somewhat resolved this summer (Corbin in the pen, Cavalli in the rotation, etc...).  I'd like a 2010/2011 year next year.  Rebuild some momentum.  It'd still leave a hole before internal position prospects are ready, but we more or less don't have to be hopeless and just wait until 2027.

With the expanded playoffs there's something to be said for a base of a 75-win team with some good luck getting you into the mid-80s. But I just am not as high on that roster and think it's closer to a 60-win team. Rookie Cavalli, 3rd-year Gray and Erik Fedde leading a rotation is terrifying.

Online Slateman

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I would hate the Bell extension. Honestly, that just seems like wasted money. Let someone else overpay.

Offline imref

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That's like a 70-75 win team next year if everything goes perfectly.

maybe closer to 80 if Corbin is DFA'd and doesn't start every 5th game.

Offline UMDNats

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maybe closer to 80 if Corbin is DFA'd and doesn't start every 5th game.

I think there's a world where they tell him they want him in the bullpen next year and to train for that role. It's the only way to possibly make him effective.

Offline welch

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Curious how folks would feel if the Nats announced an extension for Josh Bell for 4 years, $80 million this afternoon and said they are committed to starting 2023 with Juan Soto in the Nats line up.

Sort of an "f this, we are committed to a better product and, if the team is sold, it'll be to somebody committed to the same."

We'd go into next year with a catcher, a first baseman, and a rightfielder of pretty high quality already lined up.  Probably a second baseman (Garcia), DH (Yadi / Thomas), and a strong defensive CF (Robles) on board, and looking at 3 positions to fill (3B, LF, and SS). 

As for the pitching staff, still deal Edwards, Cishek, and Finnegan, but see what you have in Cavalli and hope that Cavalli, Gray, and Fedde are the start of a rotation, to which you can add a veteran who gives you 150+ innings of major league average performance and maybe a return of Espino or some other pieces at the back end (or perhaps spend a little on a better pitcher and move a few of these guys down the pecking order).  Use the rest of the year with Corbin in the pen, along with Arano, try Cronin and a few of the fringe roster relievers to see if there's something buried in the Weems / Thompson / Abott etc....  Maybe give Clip and Harris a shot too when healthy, figuring Clip and Doo will sign back if they have anything left.

I'd feel better if Henry were healthy and given an audition, too, but there's a small part of me that thinks that is less of an embarrassing floor than it's made out to be.

I'd be happy. Looking at this year's team, I've been thinking that they need to spend on a good SS so Garcia moves to 2b, a LF, and a dependable starter. It's time for Cavalli.

That would be a .500 team, one that had a chance to win each game, one worth watching.

Offline imref

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Bring back Trea!  Your 2023 Nats:

1. Turner SS
2. Garcia 2B
3. Soto RF
4. Bell 1B
5. Cruz or Yadi DH
6. Ruiz C
7. Kieboom 3B
8. PTBNL LF
9. Robles CF

Rotation: Cavalli, Henry, Gray, Fedde, Espino

Bullpen: Corbin, Strasburg, Finnegan, Rainey, arm, arm, arm

Print playoff tickets :couch: