Follow the Prospects: Trea Turner, SS

[whytev]

Our OD middle infeild will be Escobar and Espinosa with Turner possibly coming up like Bryant. There's no way Rizzo lets a year of team control go for no reason.

Turner probably needs a year in AAA just as bad as we all agree Taylor does. Taylor raked in AA too. Give him all of next year.

[Lintyfresh85]

Difo is a level below Turner.

[imref]

Turner probably needs a year in AAA just as bad as we all agree Taylor does. Taylor raked in AA too. Give him all of next year.

We could end up keeping Uggla for another year, which would put Escobar at SS and Espinosa on the bench again.

[varoadking]

We could end up keeping Uggla for another year, which would put Escobar at SS and Espinosa on the bench again.

Isn't this the last year the Barves have to pay Uggla?  If so, I can't see us keeping him...

[DPMOmaha]

Turner probably needs a year in AAA just as bad as we all agree Taylor does. Taylor raked in AA too. Give him all of next year.

His play will dictate whether he's ready or not. This year, next year, five years from now, when he's ready, he'll be ready.

[RD]

Turner probably needs a year in AAA just as bad as we all agree Taylor does. Taylor raked in AA too. Give him all of next year.

Two different situations. Taylor was a raw kid selected out of high school. His AA success was his first real success in the minors. You definitely wanted to see him do it again in the minors before needing him in the lineup.

Turner was a mid first round pick from a college program. He had an excellent first minor league season, then was on the taxi squad in the Arizona Fall League, and played well. If he has a great year this year in AA, he may not need another year to prove himself.

Hes our shortstop in 2016 imo. Whether thats opening day or a couple weeks in, he's still the guy.

[NJ Ave]

Hes our shortstop in 2016 imo. Whether thats opening day or a couple weeks in, he's still the guy.

It's definitely a really aggressive path that usually only super advanced hitting prospects like Kris Bryant or Anthony Rendon follow.

If you look at the 2011 draft that had a lot of 4-year college talent in it, guys like Kolten Wong, George Springer, Joe Panik and C.J. Cron all had their first major action in 2014. So I agree it's really likely that we don't see Trea Turner until 2017 (maybe a cup of coffee in 2016).

[NJ Ave]

Among other reasons, it's just not preferable to Turner or the team to risk a Javier Baez situation where you bring him up for 50-60 games, and is so unready you have to demote him. That really sets up a prospect for failure in my opinion.

[houston-nat]

Among other reasons, it's just not preferable to Turner or the team to risk a Javier Baez situation where you bring him up for 50-60 games, and is so unready you have to demote him. That really sets up a prospect for failure in my opinion.

If you bring him up for 40 games and he's clearly unready, that's a little different.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Among other reasons, it's just not preferable to Turner or the team to risk a Javier Baez situation where you bring him up for 50-60 games, and is so unready you have to demote him. That really sets up a prospect for failure in my opinion.

If he is playing well for San Diego in AA, come June when he can be sent to the Nats, do you assign him to Syracuse to see if he can handle the challenge, or do you send him to Harrisburg to get acclimated to the east, weather, pitcher's parks, etc...?

[NJ Ave]

If you bring him up for 40 games and he's clearly unready, that's a little different.

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but people overblow this all the time. Trout's debut was largely just bad luck. He had a .247 BABIP (career .362), only struck out 22% of the time (not overmatched), and still put up a 2.5 WAR pace.

I think if you bring that BABIP up to even .300 (far below his career average) and his slash line was brought up to like .270/.330/.440 that season this wouldn't have been a thing.

But also, Trea Turner is not Mike Trout.

[NJ Ave]

If he is playing well for San Diego in AA, come June when he can be sent to the Nats, do you assign him to Syracuse to see if he can handle the challenge, or do you send him to Harrisburg to get acclimated to the east, weather, pitcher's parks, etc...?

I would assign him to Harrisburg for 2015 and Syracuse for all of 2016. I don't think you should let team needs dictate prospect timelines. Turner is doing great, but he's not a perfect prospect. He was in college 12 months ago and could probably use a good deal of physical maturation to truly be ready.  Even Rendon only OPSed .725 his first season as one of the best college hitters in recent memory, and that's the timeline we'd be talking about for Turner. What could be reasonably expect from Turner in 2016, a low .600s OPS?

I mean as far as I can tell, the kid can't even drive yet 

[NJ Ave]

Ian Desmond is a good example.

Desmond was a low-to-mid 700s OPS guy in the lower minors. Then he had a 55-game hot steak in AAA after a mid-season promotion and we brought him up for good.

Then he spent his first 2 seasons putting up an 84 OPS+ with 57 errors. He only had like 2.5 WAR combined those first 2 years. And now, because we pushed him up a year or two early, and we've squandered our control over an extra year or two of his prime, we're talking about pushing up ANOTHER kid a year or two early to fill the spot.

If you can't count on Trea Turner for more than 1 WAR or so, just use Yunel Escobar there or someone like him. Don't waste the equivalent of Ian Desmond 2016 to play Ian Desmond 2010 all over again.

[blue911]

Desmond had over 2,500 PA in the minors. There was nothing left to learn at the minor league level. Thinking his early struggles could have been prevented by two more years at the AAA is nuts.

[NJ Ave]

Desmond had over 2,500 PA in the minors. There was nothing left to learn at the minor league level. Thinking his early struggles could have been prevented by two more years at the AAA is nuts.

He had 205 PA in AAA out of that 2,500 PA, and like 70% of his minor league PA were at high-A or below.

ALL HS draftees have a ton of minor league PA - it doesn't mean they're ever ready for the majors. He had 28 errors in 97 games his final year in the minors, and 34 his first year in the majors.

Chase Utley had 1000 more PA at AAA than Desmond. Derek Jeter had 500+ more PA at AAA.

Personally, I think it's nuts to think that a guy can't learn anything more in the minors because of how many PA he has, especially when you're talking about a guy who came up with such glaring flaws.

[NJ Ave]

It's possible that he HAD to come up because of service time, so maybe that's the reason. I can't remember that far back.

[Slateman]

I would assign him to Harrisburg for 2015 and Syracuse for all of 2016. I don't think you should let team needs dictate prospect timelines. Turner is doing great, but he's not a perfect prospect. He was in college 12 months ago and could probably use a good deal of physical maturation to truly be ready.  Even Rendon only OPSed .725 his first season as one of the best college hitters in recent memory, and that's the timeline we'd be talking about for Turner. What could be reasonably expect from Turner in 2016, a low .600s OPS?

I mean as far as I can tell, the kid can't even drive yet 
(Image removed from quote.)

That's cool. Werth, Turner, and our other 12 year old can all bum rides of someone

[gonats34]

Kid is doing well in SD system. 14 for his last 31 and .341 on the year.

[blue911]

He had 205 PA in AAA out of that 2,500 PA, and like 70% of his minor league PA were at high-A or below.

ALL HS draftees have a ton of minor league PA - it doesn't mean they're ever ready for the majors. He had 28 errors in 97 games his final year in the minors, and 34 his first year in the majors.

Chase Utley had 1000 more PA at AAA than Desmond. Derek Jeter had 500+ more PA at AAA.

Personally, I think it's nuts to think that a guy can't learn anything more in the minors because of how many PA he has, especially when you're talking about a guy who came up with such glaring flaws.

His biggest glaring flaw was Jim Riggleman wanting him to change his hitting approach. I think AAA at bats are vastly over rated. There is an armada of Tyler Moore types that no matter how many at bats they get, they can't translate that to the majors. More to the point the number of quality starters in AAA is minimal compared to other levels.

I think if Desmond's fielding issues were a product of him being rushed, we would have seen an improvement at some time in his career.

[NJ Ave]

His biggest glaring flaw was Jim Riggleman wanting him to change his hitting approach. I think AAA at bats are vastly over rated. There is an armada of Tyler Moore types that no matter how many at bats they get, they can't translate that to the majors. More to the point the number of quality starters in AAA is minimal compared to other levels.

I think if Desmond's fielding issues were a product of him being rushed, we would have seen an improvement at some time in his career.

I think we can agree to disagree, because we don't really have any relevant information one way or the other. It's true that a lot of the best pitchers spend less time in AAA now, so that's probably a point in your favor. I think it's also true that what AAA pitchers generally have, more than stuff, is the ability to identify a hitter's weaknesses and target them. I think it's probably valuable for hitters to spend time at upper levels so they see experienced pitchers multiple times and have to make adjustments. Desmond was not (and largely still isn't) a hitter who has learned to make adjustments.

However, this is all beside the point when we're talking about Trea Turner. Trea Turner does NOT have 2500 minor league PA. He DOES have more to learn, most likely. So if we think peak Trea Turner is a 3-4 WAR player, there's absolutely no reason to waste a year of team control on a 1-2 WAR season you could easily have gotten from an Escobar/Lowrie type for little to no commitment.

[whytev]

Desmond had over 2,500 PA in the minors. There was nothing left to learn at the minor league level. Thinking his early struggles could have been prevented by two more years at the AAA is nuts.

This and he was never this level of prospect.

[NJ Ave]

This and he was never this level of prospect.

Trea Turner isn't the level of prospect you normally push to the majors after 1 minor league season, either. Rendon was #19 post-draft, and Bryant was #8. Longoria was #7.

Turner was #65.

[blue911]

Trea Turner isn't the level of prospect you normally push to the majors after 1 minor league season, either. Rendon was #19 post-draft, and Bryant was #8. Longoria was #7.

Turner was #65.

I agree and I think the speed game can benefit more from AAA than the power game.

[whytev]

The Rendon comparison had me intrigued, and is a little more apt (first round draft pick).

Both these guys were born in June.

Both drafted the month they turned 18 (Turner 602, Rendon 820)

Both drafted higher 3 years later (Turner 13, Rendon 6)

Rendon did 44 games at all levels under AA, flowed by 54 games at AA over 2 years, 3 at AAA, then he was up less than 2 years after being drafted, before he was 23.

Turner has already done 78 games at al levels under AA and 11 at AA. If he starts next year at AAA he's ahead of Rendon. If he gets there this year, he's ahead of Rendon. If he shows up next year after a couple months in the majors and OPSes even .725 while he gets settled in, he is Rendon.

You guys are right. He might play next year. But not on opening day. That'll be a guy whose name starts with "Es".

[houston-nat]

You guys are right. He might play next year. But not on opening day. That'll be a guy whose name starts with "Es".

Esmailyn Gonzalez?