2023 Won-Lost Record Prediction

[IanRubbish]

Too soon to revise my admittedly optimistic projection of 68 wins.  But they're now 75-152 since the '21 salary dumps, and there's no bat in the minors who'll make an impact this year. 

[imref]

Too soon to revise my admittedly optimistic projection of 68 wins.  But they're now 75-152 since the '21 salary dumps, and there's no bat in the minors who'll make an impact this year. 

Matt Adams?

[blue911]

The 2003 Tigers went 43-119, that's the worst W-L record since they went to a 162 game season.

WRT to winning percentage, the 1916 Philadelphia Athletics went 36-117 for a .235 winning percentage.

The 62 Mets finished 40-120-1.

[imref]

3 wins in our last 4???

[IanRubbish]

Still too small a sample size for me to come down from 68 wins, but slight encouragement with ERA rank going from 29th last year to 22nd currently.

But beyond pitching and hitting stats, there's a psychological shift that needs to happen.  They were one game under a .333 win percentage in '21 after the trade deadline salary dumps.  They were one game over .333 in '22.  They're one game under .333 now.  Like the 2008 and 2009 Manny Acta teams, this group plays like it expects to lose.  At some point, they have to break the "go 1-2 every three days" attitude that's plagued them for almost two years now.

[IanRubbish]

I predicted a run differential of -140.  They’re already -21.

11 days ago they were -21 run differential, now -20

[nobleisthyname]

11 days ago they were -21 run differential, now -20

Should be posted in the SSS thread as well.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Lucky to win 54 games.

[IanRubbish]

Run differential up to -.9 per game, in line with my preseason prediction. Still think I was too generous with wins at 68.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Run differential up to -.9 per game, in line with my preseason prediction. Still think I was too generous with wins at 68.

yah.  I mean, 7-13 is .350, so that's a 57 win pace, and I don't see significant help on the horizon. I don't know what Candy and Edwards get us at the trade deadline, and there's no great help close to the majors in the system.  Alu or Kieboom as Candy's replacement, Ferrer for Edwards, that's about it.

[DPMOmaha]

2-7 at home
7-5 on the road.

[IanRubbish]

Going to stick with 68 wins but run differential has improved to -.6 per game.   Current win pace is 70.

[readonly]

84-78

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Read - a little late for pre season picks, but loving the optimism.

[welch]

The 62 Mets finished 40-120-1.

1955 Nats went 54-101, or 34%. A lot of Nats fans can remember that season, and, even more, those players: Eddie Yost, Pete Runnels, Mickey Vernon, Roy Sievers, Jose Valdivielso, Jim Busby (flailing), Eddie Fitzgerald, Clint Courtney, Harmon Killebrew, Jim Lemon, Carlos Paula (who got hit on the head one night when he lost a flyball in the lights). Pitchers like Bob Porterfield, Mickey McDermott, Dean Stone (who won an All-Star game without throwing an official pitch), prospects like Camilo Pascual and Pedro Ramos, and Chuck Stobbs, who gave up Mickey Mantle's 550 foot homer (maybe the only ball to clear the LF bleachers at Griffith Stadium), Ted Abernathy. Players with names like Spec Shea, Bunky Stewart, and Webbo Clark.

We collected their baseball cards, watched them on Channel 5, WTTG, and listened to the immortals, Arch McDonald (invented "Yankee Clipper" and "Ducks on the pond"), and Bob Wolf. Roy Sievers, from St. Louis, inspired "Joe Hardy", also known as "Shoeless Joes from Hannibal MO". That is the team that gave us this:

[welch]

Then there is the all-time worst Washington AL team, the 1904 team. Won 38, lost 113, and tied 6.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSH/1904.shtml

[imref]

over/under on 5 more wins this year?

[Natsinpwc]

The board has gone full into its overreaction mode. Worst team ever.

[imref]

The board has gone full into its overreaction mode. Worst team ever.

worst bullpen ever, arguably.

ERAs:
- Abbott: 5.49 (9 ER in last 9 IP)
- Adon: 5.40
- Espino: 24.75
- Ferrer: 6.43
- Finnegan: 3.32 (respectable)
- La Sorsa: 14.40
- Thompson: 4.43 (borderline respectable)
- Weems: 3.75 (also respectable)
- Willingham: 11.74

Our best relief pitcher this season: Ildemaro Vargas: 1IP, 0H, 0BB

[Natsinpwc]

Most of those are small sample size. Some of them should be demoted and stay small sample size.

Wait until they trade Candy and Lane. No wins rest of the year!!

[imref]

Most of those are small sample size. Some of them should be demoted and stay small sample size.

Wait until they trade Candy and Lane. No wins rest of the year!!

the alternatives in rochester are even worse.

[Natsinpwc]

the alternatives in rochester are even worse.

You never know until you try. ERA is not a great stats to look at for relievers. Gregory Soto of the Phillies has a 4.79 ERA but has actually been very good most of the time. A few disastrous outings early in the year skew the ERA. Same for Kimbrel. ERA still over 3.00 even though he has been lights out the past couple months. Not saying the Nats pitchers will be great but you might get a few decent outings out of these guys.

[captkirk42]

Looks like we will finish a bit better than most here thought. The loss column could technically still get to 100 IF we lose ALL the remaining games.

We most likely will still have a losing season, but the question is can we keep ahead of the Mets til the end of the season? I think so but it looks a little too close for comfort.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

yes. My 63-99 may be dead before we even get to the weekend

[Natsinpwc]

It went from worst team ever to we are a contender quickly.  Overreactions.