Author Topic: Wild Card watch  (Read 31402 times)

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Offline RobDibblesGhost

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #575: September 26, 2019, 10:36:41 PM »

Offline mitlen

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #576: September 26, 2019, 10:40:39 PM »
Damn, I'm partial to the Indians.     It's the name of my first Little League team.     Learned how to keep score watchin' Indians' games on TV with my dad in the 50s.     Terry Francona is from W. PA.

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #577: September 27, 2019, 10:55:18 AM »
And I don't believe in sacrificing home field to save Max.  If he's needed Sunday, you pitch him Sunday to get home field.

And what exactly is the advantage of home field: (1) Nats fans get to  go to the game.  (2) Team logistics become complicated if the game is away.
But seriously, does it improve our chances of winning?   

Online nfotiu

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #578: September 27, 2019, 11:15:45 AM »
And what exactly is the advantage of home field: (1) Nats fans get to  go to the game.  (2) Team logistics become complicated if the game is away.
But seriously, does it improve our chances of winning?   
Long term stats say the home team wins 54% of the time in MLB games.  So there is some advantage I'd say.   

Travel could get really hairy if there there is a tie breaker game in the Central.  We'd have to wait until Monday night to see where we'd have to go, then get to the city, and if they win be prepared to go on to LA.  Staying at home waiting for the loser to come to us sounds a lot better.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #579: September 27, 2019, 11:29:42 AM »
And what exactly is the advantage of home field: (1) Nats fans get to  go to the game.  (2) Team logistics become complicated if the game is away.
But seriously, does it improve our chances of winning?

As much as people nag about FP saying it, travel actually does negatively affect players. It’s been borne out over years and years of games. Also, Milwaukee is a much better team at home that on the road. 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #580: September 27, 2019, 12:33:11 PM »
Any little edge is nice.  Less flying, more nights at home, means better rest, using the trainer's room here, etc...

Offline eastie

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #581: September 27, 2019, 01:30:15 PM »
Long term stats say the home team wins 54% of the time in MLB games.  So there is some advantage I'd say.   
Since 2012 with two WC teams the home team is 6-8 ...

(What?  Sample size?  No idea what you're talking about  8))

It's the travel and uncertainty that ends up being the down side.  I think if slots are settled before Sunday it's less of an issue.  However, if MIL and StL are playing meaningful ball on Sunday it may mean them burning a starter they could be saving, and then if there is a tie breaker it gets even better.  I'd gladly give up home field if it meant the Nats aren't facing a #1, or even a #2, on Tuesday.

Online Slateman

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #582: September 27, 2019, 01:40:29 PM »
Home field matters enough. Pitch the best option to secure it if you have to. Pitch whoever you have to to win the 2C game.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #583: September 27, 2019, 01:40:34 PM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/maybe-this-time-its-the-nationals-year/

Quote
The Nationals are mired in A Thing. It is a A Thing they have both earned and not deserved, but it is their Thing, and this postseason, they will re-embark on an attempt to escape it. Their hope to change the course of franchise history may lie on the youthful improvements in their outfield, in addition to what has always worked: A terrifying rotation, a powerful regular season offense, and the hope that they only need an inning or two from the bullpen.


i just realized this wild card game is tuesday, which is in like a few days. freak

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #584: September 27, 2019, 01:40:58 PM »
I can see ending the regular season at home being a slight advantage too. 

Online nfotiu

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #585: September 27, 2019, 02:07:38 PM »
One big factor is ballpark.  http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

We have guys who like to hit homers and pitchers who like to give them up.  It looks to be warm on Tuesday in DC, so the park will be playing small.  Not sure if that is an advantage or a disadvantage.   

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #586: September 27, 2019, 02:29:15 PM »
And what exactly is the advantage of home field: (1) Nats fans get to  go to the game.  (2) Team logistics become complicated if the game is away.
But seriously, does it improve our chances of winning?

Well we're 47-31 at home and 43-38 on the road.  Eery year our record, like most teams, is better at home.  So yea.  Did you see what Dozier said about their playoff games in Miller Park last year?

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #587: September 27, 2019, 10:23:05 PM »
Daniel Murphy hits go ahead RBI. Then Tapia hits a grand slam. 8-2 Rockies. Ryan Braun also left with an injury.

Offline NatNasty

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #588: September 27, 2019, 10:38:20 PM »
I miss Murph.

Online imref

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #589: September 27, 2019, 10:52:45 PM »
If we tie with STL then we travel, correct?

Offline spidernat

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #590: September 27, 2019, 10:54:14 PM »
If we tie with STL then we travel, correct?


yes

Offline spidernat

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #591: September 27, 2019, 10:55:00 PM »
rockies are up 11-2 so it's all in the Nats hands now and they don't need help from anyone to secure homefield

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #592: September 27, 2019, 11:01:27 PM »
The ideal scenario is for Cards and Brewers to finish behind Nats but tie for NL central. Having them burn their aces on Monday would be awesome.

Online imref

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #593: September 27, 2019, 11:05:04 PM »
The ideal scenario is for Cards and Brewers to finish behind Nats but tie for NL central. Having them burn their aces on Monday would be awesome.

:thumbs:

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #594: September 27, 2019, 11:49:10 PM »
Brewers finally lose. Nats magic number to clinch homefield is 1. Win tomorrow and the Wild Card game is at Nats Park.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #595: September 28, 2019, 12:22:06 AM »
Cardinals lose. Still only a game ahead of Brewers. Still a chance for the NL central to end in a tie.

Offline DCFan

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #596: September 28, 2019, 04:52:13 AM »
Cardinals lose. Still only a game ahead of Brewers. Still a chance for the NL central to end in a tie.

So to cut to the chase here - if the Nats split the last 2 games will that get us the home game on Tuesday???

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #597: September 28, 2019, 05:10:12 AM »
So to cut to the chase here - if the Nats split the last 2 games will that get us the home game on Tuesday???
No one knows. And you should be asleep.

Offline DCFan

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #598: September 28, 2019, 05:28:01 AM »
No one knows. And you should be asleep.

The career change I went thru over 7 years ago has altered my sleep patterns. I look to get that back on track when I retire later this year. ;)

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Wild Card watch
« Reply #599: September 28, 2019, 06:12:35 AM »
The career change I went thru over 7 years ago has altered my sleep patterns. I look to get that back on track when I retire later this year. ;)
Some folks told me they still woke up early after retiring. Not me. At least until we started taking care of the grandkids.