CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle

[Smithian]

Sure would have been nice to extend him this past offseason. I don’t think it happens now.

Unless you think he is going to keep this up offseason, I think it is still possible to resign him. But it has to be this year with four years of arbitration to buyout. If it goes further, not going to happen.

I can't imagine the Nationals didn't at least approach CJ Abrams about an extension. But my assumption is, with the security of a $5 million draft signing bonus, his agent told him to bet on himself and look for upside.  Now, if we read a process story in 6 months that says the Nationals didn't try to give him an early extension while he was still on rookie contract money, then yes it was a massive disaster for the organization.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/stock-rising-four-players-im-higher-on-after-a-month-of-play/

more praise for CJ on FG, this time from Ben Clemens:

With his swing now producing more fly balls and line drives, I expect the doubles, triples, and homers to keep on coming.

Projection systems agree with me on this one. Before the season, our Depth Chart projections pegged Abrams for a 93 wRC+; they’re now forecasting a 106 wRC+ for the rest of the season, a marked increase. We have him down for 4.0 WAR at year’s end, as compared to a preseason projection of 2.5 WAR in a similar amount of playing time. In other words, he looks more like an All-Star than an above-average regular now.

The cautions?

He’s chasing much more in this season than he did in 2023, and he’s not swinging more at meatballs to make up for it. I think that his strikeout rate is due for an increase; despite excellent bat-to-ball skills, he’s just swinging at too much junk to maintain both his power and his contact. I’m also getting concerned about Abrams’ defense – this is the third straight year that Statcast thinks he’s one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball.

Doubts he'll maintain the big HR pace, but hitting more flies hard should make him an above average hitter.

[aBaltoNat]

Interesting. To my eyes, he doesn't seem like one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game. Hrm.

[Smithian]

Interesting. To my eyes, he doesn't seem like one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game. Hrm.

I'm not really a believer in defensive analytics. Even if I was, I need to see a larger sample size before I believe he is awful based on the analytics so far this year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

3rd straight year. I'd be more inclined to believe poor fielding continues to show up rather than big improvement

[nobleisthyname]

The advanced defensive metrics still don't agree on Abrams which is really interesting. The exact values will be different but the general direction is usually the same, but it's not for Abrams for some reason. OAA (generally considered the "best" advanced defensive metric) thinks Abrams is atrocious, but UZR and DRS both think he's plus.

I'd be really interested in some analysis as to why the advanced metrics are so split on him.

[Slateman]

The advanced defensive metrics still don't agree on Abrams which is really interesting. The exact values will be different but the general direction is usually the same, but it's not for Abrams for some reason. OAA (generally considered the "best" advanced defensive metric) thinks Abrams is atrocious, but UZR and DRS both think he's plus.

I'd be really interested in some analysis as to why the advanced metrics are so split on him.

CJ Abrams career DRS is -2.

[nobleisthyname]

Ah you're right, I was only looking at 2023. Still it's nowhere near as bad as his OAA, and his UZR is definitely plus for his whole career.

[Smithian]

If the Nats system wasn't stocked with OF, I'd be saying it is time to consider CJ Abrams in center.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If the Nats system wasn't stocked with OF, I'd be saying it is time to consider CJ Abrams in center.

Garcia's emergence has made the idea of moving CJ to 2d at some point and splurging on a SS kind of moot.

[Smithian]

Garcia's emergence has made the idea of moving CJ to 2d at some point and splurging on a SS kind of moot.

I need a massive increase in sample size from Garcia before I start counting him into long term plans.

[Slateman]

If the Nats system wasn't stocked with OF, I'd be saying it is time to consider CJ Abrams in center.

We could always trade an OF prospect . . .

[Slateman]

Garcia's emergence has made the idea of moving CJ to 2d at some point and splurging on a SS kind of moot.

We could always trade Garcia. Or teach him first. Or DH

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Svrluga suggests that it's time to explore an extension.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/06/cj-abrams-keeps-getting-better-its-time-think-about-an-extension/

[Natsinpwc]

Svrluga suggests that it's time to explore an extension.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/06/cj-abrams-keeps-getting-better-its-time-think-about-an-extension/

[Slateman]

Svrluga suggests that it's time to explore an extension.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/05/06/cj-abrams-keeps-getting-better-its-time-think-about-an-extension/

Day late and a dollar short

[IanRubbish]

Would love to see it happen, but won't happen.  This team also likes to defer significant money on big contracts, and that's hard to do when you're only paying a guy until he's 30 or 31, and also might not be something a younger player would go for.   You'd end up paying him well into his 30s when he's on another team, kind of like what ended up happening with Max.

[tomterp]

He hasn't been inspiring confidence in the field lately.  Couple of hard hit balls almost right at him eating him alive.

[Senatorswin]

He almost seems distracted. I noticed tonight between pitches he was turning and looking out to left nonchalantly.

[Senatorswin]

Is it possible he is unhappy with the decision to bat second? I wouldn't think that would be a big deal but something seems to be going on with him.

[Slateman]

Is it possible he is unhappy with the decision to bat second? I wouldn't think that would be a big deal but something seems to be going on with him.

Maybe. Maybe its just not getting as many meatball fastballs

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Micheal henshaw at District on Deck suggests CJ and Davey don't see eye to eye on the value of pulling a ball. Discusses a video that captures davey giving him grief when he said he should have pulled a smash to center that got caught.

https://districtondeck.com/posts/cj-abrams-is-being-sabotaged-by-the-washington-nationals-01hxc97m4y8f

Brings back to my mind how Long was allowed to walk. There may have been a philosophical difference between Davey and Long over hitting approach. If that's right,

[Natsinpwc]

Micheal henshaw at District on Deck suggests CJ and Davey don't see eye to eye on the value of pulling a ball. Discusses a video that captures davey giving him grief when he said he should have pulled a smash to center that got caught.

https://districtondeck.com/posts/cj-abrams-is-being-sabotaged-by-the-washington-nationals-01hxc97m4y8f

Brings back to my mind how Long was allowed to walk. There may have been a philosophical difference between Davey and Long over hitting approach. If that's right,

Didn’t Martinez also criticize Trea Turner for swinging for the fences.  He thinks it’s 1965 and shortstops should all be slap hitters.

[varoadking]

Didn’t Martinez also criticize Trea Turner for swinging for the fences.

dave reminded Trea that "That's not who he is."

[Slateman]

Micheal henshaw at District on Deck suggests CJ and Davey don't see eye to eye on the value of pulling a ball. Discusses a video that captures davey giving him grief when he said he should have pulled a smash to center that got caught.

https://districtondeck.com/posts/cj-abrams-is-being-sabotaged-by-the-washington-nationals-01hxc97m4y8f

Brings back to my mind how Long was allowed to walk. There may have been a philosophical difference between Davey and Long over hitting approach. If that's right,

Lol, what? Wasnt the problem last year that he got pull happy?