Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2024

[Slateman]

Cavalli, Rutledge, Millas, and Young are MLB regulars. Remove them, and the minor league organization is thinner.

Uh .... if we actually got 4 "MLB regulars", out of our farm system  that would be amazing

[Slateman]

JCA is right.  There's no curve or special consideration for "about to be an MLB regular" or "these players are going to graduate soon."  It's a simple, hard cutoff separating rookie eligibility and non-eligibility.

Taking into account how the farm system might look in a year or two after a bunch of guys become MLB regulars is something that's left for a year or two down the road, when it actually happens.

Im expecting that Ciolek and Haas will have transforned the farm system in a couple of years

[Natsinpwc]

Im expecting that Ciolek and Haas will have transforned the farm system in a couple of years

That would be nice. 

[Slateman]

That would be nice. 

Rizzo did the thing to counter his weakness: Hire people who made their bones in the draft. Im gonna be optimistic that these moves will greatly improve the draft outcomes.

Now if he could just get someone who understands pitching analytics...

[imref]

Rizzo did the thing to counter his weakness: Hire people who made their bones in the draft. Im gonna be optimistic that these moves will greatly improve the draft outcomes.

Now if he could just get someone who understands pitching analytics...

We just hired some guy out of UVA who seems to be pretty smart.

[zimm_da_kid]

Im expecting that Ciolek and Haas will have transforned the farm system in a couple of years

We’re looking at the #10 pick this year and another top 10 the next year (likely top 5) so they’ll have the draft capital to get to work.

I just wish we would get back some of the tradeable comp picks in some of our deals. 

[welch]

We’re looking at the #10 pick this year and another top 10 the next year (likely top 5) so they’ll have the draft capital to get to work.

And the Nats get first pick in second round and onward.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

And the Nats get first pick in second round and onward.

Actually, we have the 5th pick in the 2nd round, #44. Several teams had worse records last year.

High second round picks are valuable. We also saw the Os just trade a competitive balance round pick, something like #34, as part of their Corbin Burnes deal. There's research on the $ value of draft picks going back to 2019. That #34 pick was worth about $9 million, which is the value of the fWAR, discounted, over 10 or 11 seasons (Development time plus potential MLB seasons), less the slot bonus for the pick. The #44 pick is estimated to be worth $6.9 million more than the bonus. Roughly what we're paying Williams for 2024, or the cost of Gallo and Senzel this year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

[Natsinpwc]

I saw that n the Os trade but thought you could not trade draft picks in MLB?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I saw that n the Os trade but thought you could not trade draft picks in MLB?

the competitive balance picks can be traded under the new CBA. Note also that the O's got a pick at the end of the 1st round before the competitive balance pick because of Gunnar winning RoTY. Os have #22 and #32, so #34 was nice but not necessary to get a shot at a player around there in the draft.

[Natsinpwc]

the competitive balance picks can be traded under the new CBA. Note also that the O's got a pick at the end of the 1st round before the competitive balance pick because of Gunnar winning RoTY. Os have #22 and #32, so #34 was nice but not necessary to get a shot at a player around there in the draft.

Thanks for clarifying that. 

[Slateman]

We’re looking at the #10 pick this year and another top 10 the next year (likely top 5) so they’ll have the draft capital to get to work.

I just wish we would get back some of the tradeable comp picks in some of our deals. 

Chase Shores, come on down!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Chase Shores, come on down!

is he a pitcher who needs arm surgery or a toolsy position player with contact issues?

[Slateman]

is he a pitcher who needs arm surgery or a toolsy position player with contact issues?

Tall RHP that throws 100 and goes to LSU

[Mattionals]

Tall RHP that throws 100 and goes to LSU

Sounds like a Rizzo special.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Tall RHP that throws 100 and goes to LSU

ok, so you are saying they'll think about him, be happy if he falls to them, and when somebody grabs him one slot ahead of the Nats, they will say they really wanted tommy tanks all along when they grab him with the next pick.

[Slateman]

ok, so you are saying they'll think about him, be happy if he falls to them, and when somebody grabs him one slot ahead of the Nats, they will say they really wanted tommy tanks all along when they grab him with the next pick.

Tanks will be our pick in 2024. Shores isnt eligible until 2025, when we will have a top 3 pick

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Tanks will be our pick in 2024. Shores isnt eligible until 2025, when we will have a top 3 pick

So was he LSU's big freshman reliever in the CWS? They had Skenes and another junior who went first round.

[imref]

Law ranks the Nats' system at #11

https://theathletic.com/5258158/2024/02/09/mlb-farm-system-rankings-2024/

[nobleisthyname]

Fangraphs has released their updated top 100 prospects list with full writeups for 2024. Nationals have four players, with Wood and Crews both being top-10:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/

6 - James wood
9 - Dylan Crews
57 - Cade Cavalli
89 - Brady House

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Fangraphs has released their updated top 100 prospects list with full writeups for 2024. Nationals have four players, with Wood and Crews both being top-10:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/

6 - James wood
9 - Dylan Crews
57 - Cade Cavalli
89 - Brady House

interesting that they stick with Wood when others have knocked him down. We should post the detailed blurbs in each player's "Follow the Prospects" thread.

I think the Cavalli ranking is right. TJS is not so damaging that a guy who was significantly higher and who has performed in the upper minors should drop out of the top 100. As for House, that's up from about #111 last year, but is lower than other public rankings.

[imref]

milb pipeline updated:
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals/

Two of the IFAs made the list (Hurtado, Angel Feliz).

Armando Cruz falls out of the top 30. Biggest change at the top is YoYo passing Green to move to #5.

Jacob Young makes the biggest jump, going to 18. TJ White's stock continues to drop. He started last year at 10 and is now 30.

[Senatorswin]

In team minor league team rankings I've seen the Orioles, Cubs and Red Sox are at the top. FanGraphs has a ranking I don't understand but it has the Nats at number 3. Anyone know what this means?

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

[nobleisthyname]

In team minor league team rankings I've seen the Orioles, Cubs and Red Sox are at the top. FanGraphs has a ranking I don't understand but it has the Nats at number 3. Anyone know what this means?

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

That's their 2023 updated list. They haven't released their 2024 list yet.

[Senatorswin]

That's their 2023 updated list. They haven't released their 2024 list yet.

At the bottom it says updated March 4, 2024 6:23 am. I don't understand the rankings though.