Strasburg in October..

[aussienatsfan]

I've stayed totally out of the stras debate, 1. Because I didn't want to think about it and 2. Because there is no right or wrong answer.

I support the organisation and Rico if they feel it's the right choice, it will just break my heart if we go into the playoffs without him.

If medical science says he is at risk, I support it, but it could also cost us stras down the track as he may become disillusioned with being held out.

What a conundrum

[Kevrock]

He pitched 123 innings in 2010. You didn't included his Minor League innings.

Good catch, thanks.

[tomterp]

133 to 190. Thats what 57 innings. Thats not the end of the world.

Go read Kevrock's post again.  He's at 133 now already, pitched 24 innings last season.

[HalfSmokes]

Aside from the TJ rehab issue, I think it's getting obvious that he starting to fatigue- where it not for the rehab plan, I'm thinking they'd be skipping a start or getting him extra rest where possible. As much as I think the decision is harder than anyone on tv acknowledges (boz's you're all morons vs Kruk's nats are destroying baseball), I'm starting to wonder if 180 might be pushing it too far especially after reading Stark (which seemed to say pitching through fatigue is one thing medical science agrees is bad for arms)

[UMDNats]

Strasburg is definitely looking like he's fatigued. I was in the "let him pitch if he feels healthy and checks out" mindset, but I've become more and more OK with him being shut down since he's looked a little shaky recently. Like HS said, pitching through fatigue is dangerous and when injuries happen.

[Terpfan76]

I'm gonna trust the team on this. Like Tom said, they probably have more info at their fingertips than a bunch of loudmouth internetz baboons.

[GSW]

"The Nats have presumably talked to doctors and injury experts to make that determination.  They are less concerned with how they may be 'babying' him."

So they don't want to go over 180 ip........ SO skip some F'ing STARTS......

Or limit him to 3/4 ip per game !!!!!!!!!

OR BOTH 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Strasburg does not strike me as the type of guy who would say, "I'm tired, time to stop."  I put zero value on his saying "I feel great."  I would think that at this point they would keep some data on range of motion, strength of muscle groups, velocity, clustering of his pitches movement, etc . . . that could help draw a line.  The broad range of 160 to 180 might be consistent with that sort of approach to when to say enough.

[CapsnNats]

I'm definitely starting to notice a lack of command. He's still ridiculous, but I'm starting to see where Rizzo is coming from - and I was completely anti-shutdown.

[houston-nat]

Pedro Martinez went from 77 IP to 177 IP as a 19 year old. Greg Maddux went form 85 IP to 186 IP as a 19 year old. Tom Glavine went from 32 IP to 165 IP as a 19 year old. Roy Halladay went from 50 IP to 164 IP as a 19 year old. Johan Santana went from 93 IP to 160 IP as a 20 year old.

Of course, what you don't mention is that Roy Halladay's first full major league season featured the highest ERA ever for a pitcher with >50 IP.

[lastobjective]

Strasburg does not strike me as the type of guy who would say, "I'm tired, time to stop."  I put zero value on his saying "I feel great."  I would think that at this point they would keep some data on range of motion, strength of muscle groups, velocity, clustering of his pitches movement, etc . . . that could help draw a line.  The broad range of 160 to 180 might be consistent with that sort of approach to when to say enough.

I read that JZim also felt great before his shutdown, but his performance had definitely fallen off right before his inning limit. As you said, players who want to play will always say they're OK unless the physically can't or someone forces them to sit. See Harper and Det playing sick, etc.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Of course, the year after Pedro jumped to 177 innings in the minors, he went back to 133 and the next year he pitched 110.  At 21, that was after his conversion to a reliever, but the cut back in innings as a starter when he hit 20 may show that the jump from 18 to 19 was a bit much. I can't find if it was due to injury.

[stanleycaps98]

I am not even getting the "let him pitch" folks.  He has been losing control and velocity over the past 3-4 starts, and because he is a unique pitcher, he has, for the most part, gotten away with it.  That said, look at Zimm last year to this year at the same time.  Night and Day.

The other aspect of this is that the Nationals are showing parents of drafted pitchers and players that they care about the kids and are not going to toss them out like a used carcass when they break down.  This is huge when you are drafting out of slot pitchers and quite frankly, sets a new standard, not only for baseball but for all sports - NCAA, NHL etc where kids are concerned.

[HalfSmokes]

if he has another 4 walk game his next, I wonder if the time table gets accelerated (he'd be at ~145 IP with 25 starts- Zimmermann had 26 starts last year with 161 IP)

[GSW]

A little fun fact:   

The balance of the season we play 28 games with teams under 500 and 16 games with teams over 500

6 of those games are with the Atlanta  (which we own this year)

Rizzo can't find a way to limit Strasburg and keep his IP under 160 and save him for OCTOBER

 

[zoom]

i have been in the shut him down camp from day 1.  Since it is a crapshoot, i say go with what has worked (See JZimm).  I know we can play hypothetical round table here, but the only fact, that i am aware of, is the JZimm looks strong this year and Stras would have the same plan post shutdown.   

[Baseball is Life]

The other aspect of this is that the Nationals are showing parents of drafted pitchers and players that they care about the kids and are not going to toss them out like a used carcass when they break down.  This is huge when you are drafting out of slot pitchers and quite frankly, sets a new standard, not only for baseball but for all sports - NCAA, NHL etc where kids are concerned.

Brilliant. Not bad for a newb. And welcome!

I only caught a small part of the game yesterday but his velocity seemed really down. Any truth to that?

[NatsDad14]

Of course, what you don't mention is that Roy Halladay's first full major league season featured the highest ERA ever for a pitcher with >50 IP.

The point is that we are preserving his arm so he can have an amazing career. Well Halladay, Pedro, Clemens, Glavine, and Maddux all had great careers despite having a high workload early on.

[hammondsnats]

just let him pitch

[ronnynat]

Strasburg is definitely looking like he's fatigued. I was in the "let him pitch if he feels healthy and checks out" mindset, but I've become more and more OK with him being shut down since he's looked a little shaky recently. Like HS said, pitching through fatigue is dangerous and when injuries happen.

What makes you think he's fatigued? His velocity is right where it was in late June and he doesn't seem to be overthrowing.

The only minor problem that I've seen is that he hasn't been throwing inside to lefties as much as he did earlier in the season. I really want to see him challenging more hitters by throwing inside and just above the strike zone. That'll lower his pitch counts.

[Mr Clean]

I'm definitely starting to notice a lack of command. He's still ridiculous, but I'm starting to see where Rizzo is coming from - and I was completely anti-shutdown.

Didn't Zimmermann have the same problem last year?  Well at least with command.

[CapsnNats]

Didn't Zimmermann have the same problem last year?  Well at least with command.

Yeah, and he was very off an on as well. One fantastic outing, one shaky outing and so on.

[NJ Ave]

What makes me think he's getting fatigued? Well his velocity has trended down over the course of the season, for one thing. He's back down to his April velocity after peaking in June 2+ MPH faster.

Date                   FBv
4/5/2012     95.3
4/11/2012   94.9
4/16/2012   95.8
4/21/2012   95.7
4/28/2012   96.7
5/4/2012     96.2
5/10/2012   95.7
5/15/2012   95.2
5/20/2012   96.5
5/26/2012   95.8
6/2/2012     97.3
6/8/2012     96.6
6/13/2012   95.7
6/20/2012   96.6
6/25/2012   95.7
6/30/2012   94.9
7/6/2012     95.7
7/15/2012   95.3
7/20/2012   95.7
7/25/2012   95.4
7/31/2012   95.4
8/5/2012     95.0
8/10/2012   95.2
8/15/2012   94.1

[sportsfan882]

What is the trend for pitchers in general? Don't pitchers go through ups and downs with velocity through the course of a season? And don't many get more tired near the end?

[hammondsnats]

What makes me think he's getting fatigued? Well his velocity has trended down over the course of the season, for one thing. He's back down to his April velocity after peaking in June 2+ MPH faster.

Date                   FBv
4/5/2012     95.3
4/11/2012   94.9
4/16/2012   95.8
4/21/2012   95.7
4/28/2012   96.7
5/4/2012     96.2
5/10/2012   95.7
5/15/2012   95.2
5/20/2012   96.5
5/26/2012   95.8
6/2/2012     97.3
6/8/2012     96.6
6/13/2012   95.7
6/20/2012   96.6
6/25/2012   95.7
6/30/2012   94.9
7/6/2012     95.7
7/15/2012   95.3
7/20/2012   95.7
7/25/2012   95.4
7/31/2012   95.4
8/5/2012     95.0
8/10/2012   95.2
8/15/2012   94.1

has he had any soreness or pain that isn't ordinary?  not that we know of ...

i'd let him pitch. 

as i've said all along, there's no right decision and i can see cases can be made for both sides.  but watching him pitch, he looks fine and if he says he feels good and wants to be out there ... just let him. 

we are not guaranteed to be here next year, the year after, etc...no matter how good we're supposed to be for years to come.