Strasburg in October..

[blue911]

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=8274342

[NJ Ave]

David Price, getting stronger and maintaining:

Date   FBv
4/7/2012   94.9
4/13/2012   95.9
4/18/2012   94.9
4/24/2012   93
4/29/2012   94.5
5/4/2012   94.3
5/10/2012   95.2
5/15/2012   95.3
5/20/2012   95.4
5/26/2012   95.9
6/1/2012   96.1
6/7/2012   96.8
6/13/2012   95.6
6/19/2012   96.5
6/24/2012   96.7
6/29/2012   95.8
7/4/2012   96.2
7/14/2012   95.3
7/19/2012   96.4
7/25/2012   95.9
7/30/2012   96
8/5/2012   94.5
8/11/2012   96

[NJ Ave]

Jordan Zimmermann, pretty constant:

Date   FBv
4/8/2012   93.6
4/13/2012   93.4
4/18/2012   93.2
4/25/2012   92.6
5/1/2012   94.2
5/6/2012   93.6
5/12/2012   93.3
5/17/2012   93.5
5/22/2012   94.1
5/28/2012   94.1
6/5/2012   93.5
6/10/2012   94.2
6/16/2012   93.4
6/22/2012   93.8
6/27/2012   93.7
7/3/2012   93.9
7/8/2012   94.1
7/13/2012   93.6
7/18/2012   93.4
7/23/2012   93.7
7/28/2012   94.7
8/4/2012   94.2
8/9/2012   94.5
8/14/2012   94

[hammondsnats]

those guys didn't have TJ surgery last year though.

[NJ Ave]

So we should ignore Strasburg's velocity dropping and continue to pitch him because....he had TJ surgery last year?

[houston-nat]

David Price, getting stronger and maintaining:

hehehehehehe.

[hammondsnats]

So we should ignore Strasburg's velocity dropping and continue to pitch him because....he had TJ surgery last year?

he reached 97 ... once. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sportsfan - sure, he's not the only pitcher to lose velocity over the season (some go up), but your suggestion that lots of pitchers wear down over the season kind of proves the shutdown point.  The point being, it's tired pitchers that have the greatest risk of injury. If he's showing evidence of tiring, being young and coming off an injury, all that points to being cautious and treating these at least as yellow lights.

and by yellow lights, I don't mean speed up before they turn red.

[sportsfan882]

I agree, shutting down is the right move. A guy like Edwin Jackson needs to step up in his absence.

[NJ Ave]

he reached 97 ... once. 

What are you talking about? He was sitting over 96, usually well over, 6 times between April 28 and June 20.

He hasn't been over 96 since, and in his last start TOPPED OUT at 96, where he was sitting comfortably earlier this season

He was topping out at 98-99 earlier this season.

Look, 2-3 MPH doesn't mean he's still not throwing hard or being effective. But it could be indicative of his arm tiring. And pitching with a tired arm in a pennant race is a recipe for injury.

[ronnynat]

What was his average changeup velocity in the last start?

[Monarch]

I'm new here as a poster (in fact this might be my first post), but have lurked for years...I've tried my best to avoid this topic, but its hard not to...IMO the absence of strasburg does not knock us out of WS contention any more than having him here puts us over the top. I think BP fatigue (not many of our starters go into the 8th inning - this is just by watching I have no numbers backing this up), health (I do not think our projected lineup at the beginning of the season have all been healthy at the same time even once this season), and lack of post season experience (I have to think that has to come into play at some point, right?) are all going to be much bigger factors than strasburg pitching or not.

does any of that mean we should or shouldn't shut him down? we will probably never know...

[CatsEye]

 Pull him now. He is wearing down too fast, and save the arm.     I am chanting:  Save the Arm...Save the Arm.....Save the Arm......Save the Arm....

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Monarch - welcome.  thanks for joining the discussion.  We can hope bullpen fatigue might be lessened by some call ups after the minor league season ends around 9/1.  After the yankees series, you do have to wonder if the team might suffer stage fright or press too hard. however, other than Werth, Jackson, and maybe ALR and Mike Gonzalez (not sure), that'll be the case with or without Strasburg. 

I think what gets to the commenters about the Strasburg shutdown isn't so much the fact that we would have to lean a bit more on Jackson and Detwiler as each moves up from the 4th starter and long man innings to the 3d and 4th starter role.  It seems to be more the notion that we are going into the playoffs with one arm tied behind our back (or, tied firmly to the bench).  They do not think there is much to the notion that there is enough of a showing that pitching him more innings has so much risk associated with it that it is worth the trade off of not putting our nominally-best 25 man roster forward in the series.

[zoom]

I am not even getting the "let him pitch" folks.  He has been losing control and velocity over the past 3-4 starts, and because he is a unique pitcher, he has, for the most part, gotten away with it.  That said, look at Zimm last year to this year at the same time.  Night and Day.

The other aspect of this is that the Nationals are showing parents of drafted pitchers and players that they care about the kids and are not going to toss them out like a used carcass when they break down.  This is huge when you are drafting out of slot pitchers and quite frankly, sets a new standard, not only for baseball but for all sports - NCAA, NHL etc where kids are concerned.

Schlereth (Mike and Mike) said the same thing yesterday, but for free agents.  (Paraphrasing here);  'Rizzo is showing FA's that he is a man of his word.   Making Washington a FA destination spot'. 

I am sure it doesn't hurt that he is the father of a MLB pitcher.

[hammondsnats]

What are you talking about? He was sitting over 96, usually well over, 6 times between April 28 and June 20.

97 mph velocity on the list.  no crap he's thrown over that, but the average.

i really think you're making a big deal out of nothing. 

[NJ Ave]

97 mph velocity on the list.  no crap he's thrown over that, but the average.

I agree, let's continue the discussion in klingon.

i drive a dodge stratus! head-on collisions. future of the team.

[hammondsnats]

I agree, let's continue the discussion in klingon.

i drive a dodge stratus! head-on collisions. future of the team.

[aspenbubba]

To be honest I find this thread to be a bit over the top. I have stayed away from it because the decision has been made and it is cast in stone. Whether it is the right one we will never know. Stras could already be hurt or hurting from fatigue.There is no right answer and I am going to postulate something that I have not read previously or if it has been said here or elsewhere I apologize.

A lot of baseball people with credentials either as players or coaches have said do not shut him down because this maybe the only shot the Nats will  have at a WS. While that maybe true I can convincingly say that without Strasburg in years 2013 and beyond that we will probably not be having this discussion about a legitimate chance at a championship. His future health doesn't guarantee us anything but his absence guarantees us that we won't be in the hunt next year or the year after. This team has been built for a long term run that allegedly was supposed to contend next year and beyond.  I cannot see jeopardizing that this Fall when Srtrasburg is a vital component of the team. If he follows JZimms path to recovery he will only be better next year.

Some will say that we can pick up FA to replace him or fill in holes. I am not sure that will be the case now that the "plan" has borne fruit.

[tomterp]

What makes you think he's fatigued? His velocity is right where it was in late June and he doesn't seem to be overthrowing.

This tweet from Boz for example:

Thomas Boswell‏@ThomasBoswellWP

 Pro-shutdown scout says, "Strasburg a freak of nature. Looks fatigued, losing velo&command, effectively wild but they still can't hit him"
 

[blue911]

This tweet from Boz for example:

I've always heard that command goes before velocity.

[MorseTheHorse]

On fastball velocity over the season: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/historical-monthly-velocity-trends/

Using the data posted for Stras here is a 3-game moving average of his fastball velocity (so we get a little less noise).  Just eyeballing it, it doesn't look like any huge drop yet, but it is something to keep an eye on:

Date                Avg velocity of next 3 starts:
4/5/2012        95.55
4/11/2012      95.3
4/16/2012      96.25
4/21/2012      95.95
4/28/2012      96.2
5/4/2012        95.7
5/10/2012      96.1
5/15/2012      95.5
5/20/2012      96.9
5/26/2012      96.2
6/2/2012        96.5
6/8/2012        96.6
6/13/2012      95.7
6/20/2012      95.75
6/25/2012      95.7
6/30/2012      95.1
7/6/2012        95.7
7/15/2012      95.35
7/20/2012      95.55
7/25/2012      95.2
7/31/2012     95.4
8/5/2012        94.55
8/10/2012     
8/15/2012      

[tomterp]

On fastball velocity over the season: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/historical-monthly-velocity-trends/

Using the data posted for Stras here is a 3-game moving average of his fastball velocity (so we get a little less noise).  Just eyeballing it, it doesn't look like any huge drop yet, but it is something to keep an eye on:

Date                Avg velocity of next 3 starts:
4/5/2012        95.55
4/11/2012      95.3
4/16/2012      96.25
4/21/2012      95.95
4/28/2012      96.2
5/4/2012        95.7
5/10/2012      96.1
5/15/2012      95.5
5/20/2012      96.9
5/26/2012      96.2
6/2/2012        96.5
6/8/2012        96.6
6/13/2012      95.7
6/20/2012      95.75
6/25/2012      95.7
6/30/2012      95.1
7/6/2012        95.7
7/15/2012      95.35
7/20/2012      95.55
7/25/2012      95.2
7/31/2012     95.4
8/5/2012        94.55
8/10/2012     
8/15/2012   

Good work.  If you accept 8/10 as the new norm, as much as a 2 mph drop.

[Lintyfresh85]

In good news, Nats are getting major run with national media. This morning it was one of the main topics on The Dan Patrick Show.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I'm glad I don't pay attention to the national (sports) media, then.  If the Nats get bounced from the postseason without Strasburg, all we'll hear for months and months is about how "they shouldn't have shut down their best pitcher."