Change of plans - At what point would you push for a wild card in 2024?

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

So gaming the season out in a Sunshine Squad Scenario:

May:
- Garrett up / Rosario DFA'd
- Gray back, Corbin to the pen (Gray returns to something like a 4.00 ERA pitcher), Parker / Irvin / Gore continue to pitch well. Williams too.
- End of May - team hovering around .500

June:
- Wood / Robles up, Young back to Rochester, Nunes DFA'd. New OF is Wood / Robles / Thomas. Wood holds his own and Robles plays something like he did in late 2023. The rest of the team continues to perform well, team is at or slightly above .500

July before the deadline:
- Robles traded for a prospect, Crews comes up and is the every day CF going forward
- Team stands pat on Senzel
- Rizzo trades some lower level prospects (Armando Cruz? Lispcomb? Lile) for some relief pitching help and maybe an upgrade over Meneses or Gallo depending on how they are doing
- Cavalli returns, sending Williams to the pen or we trade Williams for a prospect

August 1st lineup:
1. Abrams - SS
2. Thomas - RF
3. Winker - DH
4. Gallo / Meneses / Upgrage - 1B
5. Wood - LF
6. Garcia Jr. - 2B
7. Crews - CF
8. Ruiz / Adams - C
9. Senzel - 3B

Rotation: Irvin, Parker, Gray, Gore, Cavalli

Lots of things would have to break right, but other than House, we've got the core of our 2025 team in place and perhaps, just perhaps, we're in WC contention going to the end of the year.

I agree with a lot of this, but I still see no scenario where we "buy" at the deadline, especially prospects like Lipscomb and Lile that could be part of the future.  I actually think even if we're close to .500, you still look to sell off guys not part of the future in their last or 2nd to last season of control.  There should be some younger guys ready to be promoted to take those bullpen spots, or someone like Crews or Lile can take Winker's OF spot. 

[nobleisthyname]

If the Nats have ~.550 winning percentage by the middle of July (about a 90 win rate across the whole season) I'd be open to considering being buyers. Simply hovering around .500 is not good enough to give up any prospect capital.

[Smithian]

August 1st lineup:
1. Abrams - SS
2. Thomas - RF
3. Winker - DH
4. Gallo / Meneses / Upgrage - 1B
5. Wood - LF
6. Garcia Jr. - 2B
7. Crews - CF
8. Ruiz / Adams - C
9. Senzel - 3B

Rotation: Irvin, Parker, Gray, Gore, Cavalli

Lots of things would have to break right, but other than House, we've got the core of our 2025 team in place and perhaps, just perhaps, we're in WC contention going to the end of the year.

[IanRubbish]

August 1st lineup:
1. Abrams - SS
2. Thomas - RF
3. Winker - DH
4. Gallo / Meneses / Upgrage - 1B
5. Wood - LF
6. Garcia Jr. - 2B
7. Crews - CF
8. Ruiz / Adams - C
9. Senzel - 3B

Rotation: Irvin, Parker, Gray, Gore, Cavalli

Interesting scenario.  With Sept 1 callups, I'd imagine we'd see Lipscomb, Wood, Baker, and maybe a couple others.

I'd bet Corbin is still in the rotation then.  He doesn't get hurt, he's not likely to fetch much in a trade, and he's getting paid.

Vargas will also be getting playing time.  He's better than Senzel, though I agree Senzel will still be here for similar reasons to Corbin except the injury issue.

DH/1B is depressing. Might as well take one of the outfielders in the system or Juan Yepez and give them a shot.

[Smithian]

Interesting scenario.  With Sept 1 callups, I'd imagine we'd see Lipscomb, Wood, Baker, and maybe a couple others.

I'd bet Corbin is still in the rotation then.  He doesn't get hurt, he's not likely to fetch much in a trade, and he's getting paid.

Vargas will also be getting playing time.  He's better than Senzel, though I agree Senzel will still be here for similar reasons to Corbin except the injury issue.

DH/1B is depressing. Might as well take one of the outfielders in the system or Juan Yepez and give them a shot.

DH/1B doesn't worry me. If the Nationals closed this year strong and felt like they could compete in 2025, those spots are the easiest to go and fill with solid bats.

[aspenbubba]

Interesting scenario.  With Sept 1 callups, I'd imagine we'd see Lipscomb, Wood, Baker, and maybe a couple others.

I'd bet Corbin is still in the rotation then.  He doesn't get hurt, he's not likely to fetch much in a trade, and he's getting paid.

Vargas will also be getting playing time.  He's better than Senzel, though I agree Senzel will still be here for similar reasons to Corbin except the injury issue.

DH/1B is depressing. Might as well take one of the outfielders in the system or Juan Yepez and give them a shot.

I'm pretty sure that you are not allowed wholesale call ups as in the past and are only alloewed one position player and one thrower.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting scenario.  With Sept 1 callups, I'd imagine we'd see Lipscomb, Wood, Baker, and maybe a couple others.

I'd bet Corbin is still in the rotation then.  He doesn't get hurt, he's not likely to fetch much in a trade, and he's getting paid.

Vargas will also be getting playing time.  He's better than Senzel, though I agree Senzel will still be here for similar reasons to Corbin except the injury issue.

DH/1B is depressing. Might as well take one of the outfielders in the system or Juan Yepez and give them a shot.

Well, they showed in the past they are willing to chop some deadwood after the trade deadline to give guys opportunities. They cleared out Dickerson to open time for Garrett and to give Blankenhorn a shot, so I don't think 9/1 is key for the wave of prospects. I think 8/20 may be more important for Crews and House because they'd retain RotY eligibility in 2025 if there's less than 45 days or so left in the season. That's if the season goes to expectations and they have decent minor league numbers. If the team is in a wild card chase after the ASB, then I could see those moves earlier.

[IanRubbish]

If the team is in a wild card chase after the ASB

Not going to happen.  The Nats are not going to jump ahead of the Mets or Phillies, so they would then need to finish ahead of the Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Padres, etc, all of whom are scoring about 50% more runs per game.  The Nats are dead last in the NL in scoring, and if the Hickey Shuffle made a big come back, their run differential would be close to Marlins/Rockies territory.

But in the words of Debbie Harry, Dreaming is Free.

[IanRubbish]

DH/1B doesn't worry me. If the Nationals closed this year strong and felt like they could compete in 2025, those spots are the easiest to go and fill with solid bats.

What bothers me is the continued refusal to put the best lineup out there.  Plenty of people in the org, including AAA, have earned a shot to play DH/1B beyond Meneses, Gallo, and Senzel, but the odd allegiances and sunk money in contracts continue to dictate who plays, instead of who gives the team the best chance to win.

[imref]

What bothers me is the continued refusal to put the best lineup out there.  Plenty of people in the org, including AAA, have earned a shot to play DH/1B beyond Meneses, Gallo, and Senzel, but the odd allegiances and sunk money in contracts continue to dictate who plays, instead of who gives the team the best chance to win.

more that they want to see if they've got anything that they can flip at the deadline. Senzel has barely played.

[Slateman]

I'm pretty sure that you are not allowed wholesale call ups as in the past and are only alloewed one position player and one thrower.

Yep. One pitcher and one position player. Anyone else and you have to make a corresponding move on the 26 man roster.

Which is totally doable for this team. After the deadline, there is no reason that Rosario, Gallo, Winker, Williams, Finnegan, Harvey, Floro, or Law to be on the 26 man roster, thus freeing up their spots for call ups.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yep. One pitcher and one position player. Anyone else and you have to make a corresponding move on the 26 man roster.

Which is totally doable for this team. After the deadline, there is no reason that Rosario, Gallo, Winker, Williams, Finnegan, Harvey, Floro, or Law to be on the 26 man roster, thus freeing up their spots for call ups.

Finnegan and Harvey (and Thomas) have another year of control. They aren't getting cut. They may get traded, but they are not getting cut after the trade deadline this year.

[Smithian]

What bothers me is the continued refusal to put the best lineup out there.  Plenty of people in the org, including AAA, have earned a shot to play DH/1B beyond Meneses, Gallo, and Senzel, but the odd allegiances and sunk money in contracts continue to dictate who plays, instead of who gives the team the best chance to win.

I agree with this statement but I feel like fans of every major league club feel this way. The only defense I can give for it is usually that player who gets called up bombs. Meneses is a rare exception.

[Slateman]

Finnegan and Harvey (and Thomas) have another year of control. They aren't getting cut. They may get traded, but they are not getting cut after the trade deadline this year.

They can be traded. There's no reason to let them slip past another deadline. Move them.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They can be traded. There's no reason to let them slip past another deadline. Move them.

agree they should be shopped aggressively, but they for sure aren't getting cut if they aren't dealt. There's got to be some sort of minimal offer below which they should not be moved at this time. They aren't in Floro or Williams situation.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Here’s my path to contending for a WC in 2025

C - Hoping Ruiz can eventually take a step forward, but also having Adams is a luxury.

1B/DH - Hopefully Morales can fill one of these spots, but probably not for OD 2025.  Luckily this is an easy couple of spots to fill.

2B - Garcia looked like a lost cause, but at 23 the former top-100 prospect looks like he could be the 2B of the future.

3B - I could see Lipscomb as the OD 3B and House coming up at some point and pushing Lipscomb to a utility role.

SS - I just hope we can extend CJ at some point this year.

LF - Hoping to see Wood soon and make adjustments and not look overmatched.  He can take a big leap in 2025.

CF - Same as Wood with Crews, but we won’t see him until later in the Summer.

RF - I’m not sure the trade value will be there for Lane, so he may be the guy until one of the host of other OF prospects proves ready.

SP - I think we have to acquire at least a Chris Sale-type vet on a short-term deal.  Gore is trending to a top guy, Irvin looks at least serviceable, hopefully Gray returns and fits into that category, and hopefully Cavalli shows a lot of promise in the second half.  Parker emerging adds more depth, meaning we may only need to go out and spend on a single SP.

Bullpen - Who really knows.  I’d like to sell off the over 30 guys like Finnegan, Harvey, and Weems.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Weems is in a little different bucket from the other 30+ guys because he has so little service time. I think Weems and Garcia may be the only relievers not so much on the market.

[Slateman]

No one is giving you crap for Weems. But Garcia is a lefty, so trade him

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No one is giving you crap for Weems. But Garcia is a lefty, so trade him

5 years of control on a lefty arm that throws mid-90s when he is not dealing with the flu. He's the piece I'd keep.

[imref]

stay at our near .500 until the end of May, stay within a game or two of the WC, add Cavalli and Wood replacing Rosario and Corbin, and we might be a playoff team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

stay at our near .500 until the end of May, stay within a game or two of the WC, add Cavalli and Wood replacing Rosario and Corbin, and we might be a playoff team.

I do not want them to think about any trade moves to add, but I don't have a problem running out there guys like Wood and Cavalli when they are ready, or giving guys like Yepez, Blankenhorn, and Bleier a chance if they can help. If, and it is a big if, it's mid-July and we are close, I would think of possibly moving some of the prospects outside the top 15 for a Candelario-equivalent add at 1st base, or maybe 3rd.

[imref]

So looking at potential 1B options who might be available at the trade deadline:

1. Bellinger - He can opt out after this year. There's no way on earth the Nats are going after Cody Bellinger (and Bellinger only has an OPS of .760 this year with a .226 BA)
2. Paul Goldschmidt - .630 OPS - not much improvement
3. Pete Alonso - not happening unless the Mets collapse
4. Anthony Rizzo - no way
5. Rhys Hoskins - .804 OPS, he can opt out but the Brewers are a contender and aren't going to part with him
6. Josh Bell - intriguing option though he's been Gallo-level awful

I'm just not seeing a lot of options for a significant upgrade. Maybe Miguel Sano?

[Natsinpwc]

Just stop it.

[Natsinpwc]

The Nats farm system is still not deep. Counterproductive to trade prospects for someone to chase a wild card for one year.  Miami made the playoffs last year. Is that helping them long term?

[imref]

The Nats farm system is still not deep. Counterproductive to trade prospects for someone to chase a wild card for one year.  Miami made the playoffs last year. Is that helping them long term?

To be fair, they also let their GM walk after last year after trying to demote her.