Blow it Up (2020)

[UMDNats]

I don't think we'd get enough value for Corbin to make it worth moving him. We have like no pitching prospects so even a guy giving us a 4 ERA for a full season is more valuable than a C level prospect.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No, you go to no value when you are still owed over 100 million at age 30 or older. No one is giving you crap for Corbin, Strasburg, or Scherzer. That's a straight salary dump.

We would probably hope to get a Bacus-type prospect back in return.

I don't see him as David Price "you get Mookie only if you take Price" level of albatross, probably ever.  He's making $24MM a year for the next 4 years with a $10MM deferred payment because Lerners.  What do you think a Lefty 1A is worth?  Dude is no worse than a top 20 pitcher this year  and next.  His health is fine for now (jinx) so I don't see a severe risk.  But the point if the point is, could we get a mint for him at the deadline, I agree the cost would impact his trade value except perhaps to the Yankees, Phillies, and Cubs (LAD is out of the game because they don't need him).

[Slateman]

I don't see him as David Price "you get Mookie only if you take Price" level of albatross, probably ever.  He's making $24MM a year for the next 4 years with a $10MM deferred payment because Lerners.  What do you think a Lefty 1A is worth?  Dude is no worse than a top 20 pitcher this year  and next.  His health is fine for now (jinx) so I don't see a severe risk.  But the point if the point is, could we get a mint for him at the deadline, I agree the cost would impact his trade value except perhaps to the Yankees, Phillies, and Cubs (LAD is out of the game because they don't need him).

But that's the point of the contract. He's being paid what he's worth.  You're not getting valuable prospects for a guy who is in the second year of his market rate free agency. He represents no real value in trade worth.

So if the Yankees come asking, they're not offering Dominguez, Andujar, or Garcia. We're talking Nick Nelson or Caanan Smith level prospect.

[Smithian]

I don't think we'd get enough value for Corbin to make it worth moving him. We have like no pitching prospects so even a guy giving us a 4 ERA for a full season is more valuable than a C level prospect.

This is where I'm at.

[zimm_da_kid]

Corbin is below market rate.  I know strasburg and Cole are better, but look at what they got

[Elvir Ovcina]

Corbin is below market rate.  I know strasburg and Cole are better, but look at what they got

You've said or implied that several times, but that's simply not true going forward.  His contract was heavily backloaded, so he's owed over $100 million for his age 31-34 seasons (of an arm that has a ton of post-Tommy John innings on it) at an AAV of $26.5 million.  That will make him the 11th highest-paid pitcher in baseball next season (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/2021/salary/starting-pitcher/).  The guys immediately behind him - Wheeler, Darvish, Cueto, Arrieta - are all either better than him, owed a lot less money long-term, or both.  In any event, those guys were all signed to contracts with the expectation of being a #1 or #1a starter.

Corbin's good, but he's a lot less likely to be that good in 2024 when he'll be making $35 million as a 34 year old.  That's a pretty serious time bomb in that contract. 

Put it this way:  if Corbin were a free agent this winter, could he get a contract for 4 years/106 million?  Possibly, but I doubt he'd get more.  Bumgarner is the same age with a reasonably similar track record in recent years and he didn't come anywhere close last winter. 

[zimm_da_kid]

You've said or implied that several times, but that's simply not true going forward.  His contract was heavily backloaded, so he's owed over $100 million for his age 31-34 seasons (of an arm that has a ton of post-Tommy John innings on it) at an AAV of $26.5 million.  That will make him the 11th highest-paid pitcher in baseball next season (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/2021/salary/starting-pitcher/).  The guys immediately behind him - Wheeler, Darvish, Cueto, Arrieta - are all either better than him, owed a lot less money long-term, or both.  In any event, those guys were all signed to contracts with the expectation of being a #1 or #1a starter.

Corbin's good, but he's a lot less likely to be that good in 2024 when he'll be making $35 million as a 34 year old.  That's a pretty serious time bomb in that contract. 

Put it this way:  if Corbin were a free agent this winter, could he get a contract for 4 years/106 million?  Possibly, but I doubt he'd get more.  Bumgarner is the same age with a reasonably similar track record in recent years and he didn't come anywhere close last winter. 

Corbin repeated his breakout 2018 last year so he'd definitely get more than 4/$106M

Also, out of the guys you mentioned, cueto and arrieta are both trash at this point.  Darvish is having a good start to 2020 this far but hasn't been inspiring in yeeeeeaaaars (plus only one season of 200 ip all the way back in '13).  And wheeler had Tommy John and has a worse track record than corbin

[Slateman]

Corbin repeated his breakout 2018 last year so he'd definitely get more than 4/$106M

Also, out of the guys you mentioned, cueto and arrieta are both trash at this point.  Darvish is having a good start to 2020 this far but hasn't been inspiring in yeeeeeaaaars (plus only one season of 200 ip all the way back in '13).  And wheeler had Tommy John and has a worse track record than corbin

You seem to be making our point. Corbin is about 3 years away from the same age you are calling Cueto and Arrieta "trash."  So whoever trades for Corbin is going to pay over 100 million dollars for a couple good years, and then have to eat a whole lot of money. They're not going to give up very much for that.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Corbin repeated his breakout 2018 last year so he'd definitely get more than 4/$106M

Also, out of the guys you mentioned, cueto and arrieta are both trash at this point.  Darvish is having a good start to 2020 this far but hasn't been inspiring in yeeeeeaaaars (plus only one season of 200 ip all the way back in '13).  And wheeler had Tommy John and has a worse track record than corbin

Yeah?  What 31 or older year old pitchers have gotten 100+ million and a $25M+ annual value, ever?  Well, here's the list:

Strasburg
Greinke
Darvish

That's it.  Strasburg's contract looks like a potential albatross and you just took the position that Darvish isn't working out either. 

Here are their ERAs in the years that led to those contracts:

Strasburg: 3.32
Greinke: 1.66
Darvish: 3.66

Corbin was at 3.25 last year and he's at 3.99 so far in 2020.   So right now his ERA is nearest an albatross contract (Strasburg) and Darvish, which hasn't gone well and was for $5m less in annual value (based on last year, his age-30 season's, ERA).  Based on this year?  He's at a 4 ERA, a third of a run above a guy who got $5m/year less on a contract you admit hasn't been good for his team so far.

And as Slate said, there's a reason guys generally don't get paid a lot for these stages in their careers unless they are significantly better (Greinke) or selling them at the same time as prime years, and it's the point you just made: pitchers decline.   Yeah, he might get 4/106, but he's not getting much more, if any, which means the contract isn't an asset and you're not getting much in trade unless you eat a lot of money.   For example, Greinke was traded in the middle of that contract, and he's a freaking monster.   In order to get significant prospect value, the DBacks had to eat $10 million/year in salary on fewer remaining years than Corbin has. 

Now, note the problem with what I assume you're reaching for in this argument: Darvish doesn't belong on the list.  His contract is too small.  Does that make you feel better or worse?

[Natsinpwc]

Yeah?  What 31 or older year old pitchers have gotten 100+ million and a $25M+ annual value, ever?  Well, here's the list:

Strasburg
Greinke
Darvish

That's it.  Strasburg's contract looks like a potential albatross and you just took the position that Darvish isn't working out either. 

Here are their ERAs in the years that led to those contracts:

Strasburg: 3.32
Greinke: 1.66
Darvish: 3.66

Corbin was at 3.25 last year and he's at 3.99 so far in 2020.   So right now his ERA is nearest an albatross contract (Strasburg) and Darvish, which hasn't gone well and was for $5m less in annual value (based on last year, his age-30 season's, ERA).  Based on this year?  He's at a 4 ERA, a third of a run above a guy who got $5m/year less on a contract you admit hasn't been good for his team so far.

And as Slate said, there's a reason guys generally don't get paid a lot for these stages in their careers unless they are significantly better (Greinke) or selling them at the same time as prime years, and it's the point you just made: pitchers decline.   Yeah, he might get 4/106, but he's not getting much more, if any, which means the contract isn't an asset and you're not getting much in trade unless you eat a lot of money.   For example, Greinke was traded in the middle of that contract, and he's a freaking monster.   In order to get significant prospect value, the DBacks had to eat $10 million/year in salary on fewer remaining years than Corbin has.

They overpaid because they thought he was what was needed to make a run at a title.  And they needed to outbid the Yankees.  So be it.  You always overpay for free agents. (Except maybe Max). 

[Elvir Ovcina]

They overpaid because they thought he was what was needed to make a run at a title.  And they needed to outbid the Yankees.  So be it.  You always overpay for free agents. (Except maybe Max).

Exactly.  Which doesn't make it a bad move, but it does make it hard to trade the dude and certainly doesn't mean his contract is a bargain, as our favorite fake trade maestro is now contending.

[Natsinpwc]

Exactly.  Which doesn't make it a bad move, but it does make it hard to trade the dude and certainly doesn't mean his contract is a bargain, as our favorite fake trade maestro is now contending.

They decided to overpay him instead of Harper. The Lerners like to pay pitchers.

[Slateman]

They decided to overpay him instead of Harper. The Lerners like to pay pitchers. deferred money.

[Elvir Ovcina]

They decided to overpay him instead of Harper. The Lerners like to pay pitchers.

Or they'd rather overpay on a six year contract than one that, at last check, is likely to last until approximately 24 months after the sun absorbs the earth.

Tonight is a good example of why Corbin is with a hundred bajillion dollars, eh ZDK?  Can't win versus a good starter in a game you really, really need really screams pay the dude a hundred mill until he's halfway to max retirement age, yeah?

[zimm_da_kid]

Or they'd rather overpay on a six year contract than one that, at last check, is likely to last until approximately 24 months after the sun absorbs the earth.

Tonight is a good example of why Corbin is with a hundred bajillion dollars, eh ZDK?  Can't win versus a good starter in a game you really, really need really screams pay the dude a hundred mill until he's halfway to max retirement age, yeah?

You're being rather condescending.

He gave up 2 over 6.  Hardly a bad game

[Elvir Ovcina]

You're being rather condescending.

He gave up 2 over 6.  Hardly a bad game

And you've posted your usual nonsense, so I'm going to keep beating the dead horse until it bounces.  Yeah, he didn't suck today.  He also didn't get the job done.  He's not a disaster, nor is he a bad pitcher. He's in fact quite a good pitcher.  But he has the contract to match that, not some bargain deal, and he's not the class of dude who gets giant contracts when they're 31 and has value on top of that.     

You're the one asserting that a 31-year-old Tommy John survivor with a 3.82 ERA and owed $106 million for 4 years after this year has a below-market contract.  That's your burden to prove, not mine.

[zimm_da_kid]

And you've posted your usual nonsense, so I'm going to keep beating the dead horse until it bounces.  Yeah, he didn't suck today.  He also didn't get the job done.  He's not a disaster, nor is he a bad pitcher. He's in fact quite a good pitcher.  But he has the contract to match that, not some bargain deal, and he's not the class of dude who gets giant contracts when they're 31 and has value on top of that.     

You're the one asserting that a 31-year-old Tommy John survivor with a 3.82 ERA and owed $106 million for 4 years after this year has a below-market contract.  That's your burden to prove, not mine.

I still don't think it's ridiculous to say Corbin has real trade value. 

1 WAR has a value of $8 million


Here you can find Corbin's zips projections for the duration of his contract as of when he signed

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nationals-get-another-ace-in-monster-deal-with-patrick-corbin/

Here you can find his projections for 2020, 2021, and 2022.  (Only 3 year zips projections are publicly available)

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/patrick-corbin/9323/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections
These current zips projections has him at 3.8 war next year and 3.5 in 2022.  This is up from 3.1 and 2.8 from the deal-year calculations respectively.  This is likely due to his good campaign last year.  So it seems reasonable to surmise that the last two years on his deal are also likely raised due to performance.  Likely to 3.3 or 3.2 in 2023 and then 3 in the last year (those projected dropoffs are usually .2-.3 war per year.

3.8+3.5+3.2.+3 = 13.5

13.5 * $8 million = $108 million

In other words, that means he is slightly underpaid by about $2 million.

And that's with zero inflation, price per war will go up as a result of the precedents set with the strasburg and Cole contracts, Bauer wanting to sign high price 1 year deals, and the crop of starters that are FAs after 2021 (Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, and Kershaw)

[Slateman]

Cabrera might get you a Wandisson Charles from the A's.

The Rays are looking for starting pitching. If the Nats are the rest of Sanchez' salary (and he has another start like the last one), they could get Neraldo Catalina for him. Maybe a Graeme Stinson if the Rays are desperate enough.

If Doolittle can get back to 94mph, then he has some value.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I still don't think it's ridiculous to say Corbin has real trade value. 

1 WAR has a value of $8 million


Here you can find Corbin's zips projections for the duration of his contract as of when he signed

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nationals-get-another-ace-in-monster-deal-with-patrick-corbin/

Here you can find his projections for 2020, 2021, and 2022.  (Only 3 year zips projections are publicly available)

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/patrick-corbin/9323/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections
These current zips projections has him at 3.8 war next year and 3.5 in 2022.  This is up from 3.1 and 2.8 from the deal-year calculations respectively.  This is likely due to his good campaign last year.  So it seems reasonable to surmise that the last two years on his deal are also likely raised due to performance.  Likely to 3.3 or 3.2 in 2023 and then 3 in the last year (those projected dropoffs are usually .2-.3 war per year.

3.8+3.5+3.2.+3 = 13.5

13.5 * $8 million = $108 million

In other words, that means he is slightly underpaid by about $2 million.

And that's with zero inflation, price per war will go up as a result of the precedents set with the strasburg and Cole contracts, Bauer wanting to sign high price 1 year deals, and the crop of starters that are FAs after 2021 (Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, and Kershaw)

1 WAR= $8m is an overall number.  The market isn't that efficient and it turns out that FA starting pitchers are usually much cheaper - more like $4-5m/WAR (https://community.fangraphs.com/on-war-its-linearity-and-efficient-free-agent-contracts/).  It's relievers that drive the number up.

Even putting Corbin at $5 million/WAR and assuming those projections stick, you're looking at 13.5 times 5, which is $67.5 million.   There has been some correction on that, especially at the very high end - the numbers use lagging data - but SP contracts do tend to lag equivalent hitters because of the uncertainty/injury discount.  $8m/WAR is still too high an estimate for SPs in Corbin's tier.

I also don't think continued inflation is a good assumption.  Teams this winter will be coming off a season with vastly reduced revenue and they are staring down a barrel of uncertainty towards next summer as to whether there will be fans, how many, whether the economy will still support any degree of robust consumer spending, etc.  In the last slowdown/recession, salaries were essentially flat for 4 years ('08-'11) before resuming the steady march upward.   

And all that only got you to a point where Corbin's contract is essentially market rate, which was essentially the point I was making.  Market rate contracts are for free agents: guys you can sign and not give up anything.  That's part of why they get paid so much.  When you're giving up something to get a guy on a market-rate contract, you're not giving up anything of value unless the selling team eats a bunch of salary.  I'll give you some credit, though: this has been a much more interesting discussion than I expected.

[WashingtonWizards23]

Best time to do a fire sale. We are dead last in NL East. 

[Mathguy]

I would like to know something from all Nats fans - was Jackie Robinson the most awesome ballplayer in our lifetime ?

[imref]

I would like to know something from all Nats fans - was Jackie Robinson the most awesome ballplayer in our lifetime ?

No, Juan Soto is.

[Natsinpwc]

I would like to know something from all Nats fans - was Jackie Robinson the most awesome ballplayer in our lifetime ?

He stopped playing in 1956. How many do you think here saw him play?

[Slateman]

I would like to know something from all Nats fans - was Jackie Robinson the most awesome ballplayer in our lifetime ?

No, not really. He wasnt even the best player in the Negro Leagues.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Awesome person? Yes. But Joe Morgan was a better 2d baseman at his peak and career