Bullpen 2024 - Maybe this time it really will be a strength?

[imref]

Nats’ bullpen gets an honorable mention:

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-bullpens-2024

[Senatorswin]

Nats’ bullpen gets an honorable mention:

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-bullpens-2024

The writeup on the Braves talks about Reynaldo Lopez. I'm surprised he's going to be the Braves number 5 starter.

The Dodgers have Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen. I liked Treinen's stuff when he was with the Nationals. I couldn't understand why he wasn't as successful with the Nats as he was after he left. Of course Hudson got the final out in the World Series win.

[blue911]

The writeup on the Braves talks about Reynaldo Lopez. I'm surprised he's going to be the Braves number 5 starter.

The Dodgers have Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen. I liked Treinen's stuff when he was with the Nationals. I couldn't understand why he wasn't as successful with the Nats as he was after he left. Of course Hudson got the final out in the World Series win.

Ramos was god awful behind the plate.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-16-30/

#16 by projected fWAR. Middle of the pack. Acknowledging WAR isn't always a great way to measure bullpens because teams with lousy starters may throw more bullpen innings and will accumulate WAR just by being not bad.

Bullpens do tend to be a luxury item, with contenders exhibiting the most pressing need to roster those six, seven, or eight arms who can square off with the game’s best lineups come October. For teams without those high-end aspirations, though, the ‘pen is often rightly a lower priority. There’s no franchise I can think of that has maintained long-term success by focusing a rebuilding job on their bullpen rather than their rotation or lineup. For lousy teams, the best use of the game’s later innings isn’t necessarily to maximize wins, but to serve as a casting director, a comfortable place to try and get the most out of high-end, high-risk arms. And when we examine the bullpens in this part of the power rankings, that’s what we’re typically dealing with, especially once we get into the 20s. There are definitely some contenders in the mix here, including both teams that competed in last year’s World Series, and the projected WAR differences can be pretty narrow, but several of these teams are a good ways away from their next playoff appearance.

Nats project as 2.6 fWAR, split mostly among Finnegan (0.7) and Harvey (1.1). These are the only two who project to have low 4 or better ERA. Rest project pretty much 4.5 or higher (Garcia 4.43).

Write up suggests that, given their age and I guess years of control, the Nats should be willing to move any of their opening day bullpen because none (later qualified with praise for RoGar) are likely to be around for the next Nats contender. In particular, he highlights Rainey as an example of why you move hot relievers who don't figure to be around when you contend.

Beyond that, some commentary on the pitchers:

Hunter Harvey, who I thought deserved to be Washington’s All-Star Game representative last year, is nasty enough to be a good team’s closer or set-up man. He’s had (scroll unfurls) a multitude of injuries and should probably be moved while he’s still healthy. He has two years of control remaining and the prospect return for impact relievers tends to be pretty good. Hard-throwing Kyle Finnegan, who was plucked from Oakland’s roster nearly five years ago, has now sustained two straight seasons of 97 mph velocity. He has two years of team control remaining and could be a solid middle relief deadline acquisition if he keeps it up. Another former Athletic, Jordan Weems, is maybe a little too close to replacement level to fetch something in trade. If Matt Barnes, Derek Law, Jacob Barnes, or any other veteran has a resurgence, they should probably be moved to a deadline buyer.

Some young arms to watch here include the aforementioned Ferrer, who is a hard-ish throwing 24-year-old sinkerballer who debuted last year. Robert Garcia, who is 27 but is young in the sense that he has three option years remaining, has a whippy arm action, sits 93-96, and has a pretty nasty slider. Zach Brzykcy is a prospect coming off of TJ who will hopefully be back in the middle of the year and race to the big leagues with his riding fastball. – Eric Longenhagen

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If there's a positive from opening day, then I'd guess it'd be the performance of some of the relievers who figure to be in the middle of the bullpen - Ro. Garcia, M. Barnes, and Floro. Too soon to say what we have there, but Barnes and Floro may end up being useful trade assets, and Garcia you can hope can be a reliable lefty with multiple years of control.

OTOH, Rainey is not showing signs of recovering velocity that had been key to his best years.

[nobleisthyname]

Really bad sign for Rainey. Hard to see him not being put on the IL.

[imref]

Really bad sign for Rainey. Hard to see him not being put on the IL.

IIRC his velo has been low all spring. Looking at his ST stats, walks were his problem more than anything else. BAA was .212, WHIP was 1.78 with 7 hits and 9 walks in 9 innings.

Barring an actual injury. there's no reason not to give him a few weeks to see what happens before making a move.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't think he's hurt in a way that will heal. He may just have lost his velocity after an injury, end of story. He'll need to up his control a ton to be effective. M Barnes is another guy who has been learning to deal with velocity loss. Perhaps he helps Rainey.

[Slateman]

He was pumping 96 at the end of last season. WTF happened

[Mattionals]

He was pumping 96 at the end of last season. WTF happened

Re-injured his arm? Perhaps the elbow was the first thing to go, but maybe his shoulder is at fault? Any way you slice it, we are all just Monday Morning doctoring on this, and the end result is that his results might not be what they once were. If he can return to at least being effective, he has a spot, but if not, as with other bullpen arms, you just move on.

[imref]

Talknats noted he was around 92 MPH this spring. He's not a control / movement pitcher and relies on velocity to overpower hitters so that's a problem.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, Rainey isn't closing any more. He's now more of a "Bullpen B" middle inning, low leverage guy. Let's see if he can work it out. We've got enough depth that we can be patient. Who knows, next week on the mound at Nats Park, he may get a goose from the crowd and get back to 94 on his fastball.

[Slateman]

Nope

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nope

eh, I'll forgive Harvey this one.

[Slateman]

Nope

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/12/nationals-pitchers-vision/

I'm putting the link here, but it could go in a Hickey thread, the rotation thread, or maybe a few others. It's a Golden piece on what Nats pitchers target visually when they throw pitches. Other than a fastball, which has less movement, for most of the secondary pitches, they aim at other spots on the catcher's set up. Right shoulder, below the glove, the 5 hole of the catcher,  emblems on the chest protector, etc... depending on the planned movement of the pitch. Weems goes 5 hole with his sinker, for example, and the sweepers and change ups vary for others depending on whether they want to throw it for a strike or a chase.  Nice read.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

tomorrow will be interesting if it close late. I think he has to use Floro, and may try Barnes. Weems should be good, too.

[Slateman]

Nope

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't understand the usage. The talent is there. How is it that they felt the need to add a 9th reliever and go with 1 healthy catcher due to overuse of the bullpen when 4 guys (3  plus Willingham) haven't appeared since  the 1st game of the road trip? Why is  it Floro, one of your 3 FAs given an MLB contract, can't be trusted with a 5 run lead? Barnes, who is smarter than anyone in the pen and has had more big games, can't wiggle out of an inning with a 5 run lead? This is like how Mason Thompson was burned out last year.  Mule-brain stubborn from Davey. I'd f'ng cut Law right now to take away his binky.

[varoadking]

I don't understand the usage. The talent is there. How is it that they felt the need to add a 9th reliever and go with 1 healthy catcher due to overuse of the bullpen when 4 guys (3  plus Willingham) haven't appeared since  the 1st game of the road trip? Why is  it Floro, one of your 3 FAs given an MLB contract, can't be trusted with a 5 run lead? Barnes, who is smarter than anyone in the pen and has had more big games, can't wiggle out of an inning with a 5 run lead? This is like how Mason Thompson was burned out last year.  Mule-brain stubborn from Davey. I'd f'ng cut Law right now to take away his binky.

Wouldn't you think Hickey has something to do with this, and shouldn't Doo be screamin' bloody murder, assuming he sees the same thing?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Wouldn't you think Hickey has something to do with this, and shouldn't Doo be screamin' bloody murder, assuming he sees the same thing?

tbh, Floro has been walking guys at a high rate, but has not been damaged by hits. He's a walk and K and then underway so far, but you need to give him a chance with a big lead. Barnes throws junk up to today, at least, but his junk works. Even if you hate the walks, with an out and a base open, both of these guys had a chance to limit damage and that's all you need.

[GataNats]

No reason for Law to be on this team anymore.  He looks like a slob out there

[JCA-CrystalCity]

No reason for Law to be on this team anymore.  He looks like a slob out there

lot's of slobs have been able to pitch. he hasn't

[Slateman]

I don't understand the usage. The talent is there. How is it that they felt the need to add a 9th reliever and go with 1 healthy catcher due to overuse of the bullpen when 4 guys (3  plus Willingham) haven't appeared since  the 1st game of the road trip? Why is  it Floro, one of your 3 FAs given an MLB contract, can't be trusted with a 5 run lead? Barnes, who is smarter than anyone in the pen and has had more big games, can't wiggle out of an inning with a 5 run lead? This is like how Mason Thompson was burned out last year.  Mule-brain stubborn from Davey. I'd f'ng cut Law right now to take away his binky.

Those are the only ones Davey trusts. Cant say I blame him

[Natsinpwc]

Those are the only ones Davey trusts. Cant say I blame him

He trusted Law yesterday and didn’t work.  At some point you have to use the other dudes.