Author Topic: Danny Espinosa 2015, former switch hitter  (Read 6443 times)

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Online Slateman

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Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #1: February 07, 2015, 08:55:45 PM »
Word. Espinosa hitting .260 is a 3-4 WAR player.

Online Slateman

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #2: February 07, 2015, 08:59:45 PM »
Word. Espinosa hitting .260 is a 3-4 WAR player.

We're assuming that he can hit right handed against RHP. Rather large leap.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #3: February 08, 2015, 12:31:27 AM »
We're assuming that he can hit right handed against RHP. Rather large leap.

Good thing Rizzo stepped in and forced him to make the move. Hope it pays off.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #4: February 08, 2015, 10:28:26 AM »
I'd like to know what he's done over the winter to address this problem. Anything?

Online Slateman

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #5: February 08, 2015, 10:31:20 AM »
I'd like to know what he's done over the winter to address this problem. Anything?

Swiched to Grizzly

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #6: February 08, 2015, 11:17:30 AM »
Even if he can raise his average against righties to .230 as a right handed hitter, it makes him WAY more valuable and gives the Nats protection at SS until Turner is ready.  Escobar can stay the everyday 2B until Difo is ready or Danny can slide over.

I'll keep close watch in Viera on Danny to see what happens.

Offline Clever

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #7: February 08, 2015, 12:40:29 PM »
Aboot time!

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #8: February 08, 2015, 12:47:43 PM »
Well, it does pack better.

[/size]

Swiched to Grizzly

Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #9: February 08, 2015, 08:57:45 PM »
Whats the point? He cant hit right handed pitcher on any side of the plate.  :mg:

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #10: February 08, 2015, 09:53:19 PM »
How would you know?

Offline Ray D

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #11: February 09, 2015, 11:43:34 AM »
How would you know?
I am inclined to agree that the chances of success are slim. Doesn't mean he should try it because what he's doing isn't working.  But as for hitting righthanders, I suspect he's doomed, batting left or right, and I suspect he knows it.  I don't believe the propaganda I read that Rizzo left it up to him; I don't believe that this is his choice. Whoever turned him into a switch hitter as a child didn't do him any favor.  It meant he spent his entire youth never facing a same-side pitcher. Of course as a child, he hit everyone he faced because he was  far superior to them.  But what reason is there to believe that he can learn to do this at the major league level without having worked his way up facing same-side pitchers at a lower level?

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #12: February 09, 2015, 11:45:28 AM »
But what reason is there to believe that he can learn to do this at the major league level without having worked his way up facing same-side pitchers at a lower level?
Because he is an elite athlete and it's not without precedent that it can be done.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #13: February 09, 2015, 11:54:14 AM »
The only reason to think he can succeed is that he has to hit a low target to be valuable.  If he can hit .230 against righties and .280 against lefties, then he can have a multi-year career.  His career against lefties I think is in that neighborhood.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #14: February 09, 2015, 12:15:26 PM »
The only reason to think he can succeed is that he has to hit a low target to be valuable.  If he can hit .230 against righties and .280 against lefties, then he can have a multi-year career.  His career against lefties I think is in that neighborhood.

Yes, something like a .300/.350 OBP/SLG against righties would make him at least playable - probably make him like .320/.380 overall?. Last year it was .240/.290  :hang:

You can't put .240/.290 in your lineup, that's like having a second pitcher, almost.


Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #15: February 09, 2015, 12:18:08 PM »
They probably can this year and get away with it, at least the first half of the season, but that's why they went and got Escobar so they wouldn't have to.

Offline whytev

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #16: February 09, 2015, 12:20:32 PM »
I am inclined to agree that the chances of success are slim. Doesn't mean he should try it because what he's doing isn't working.  But as for hitting righthanders, I suspect he's doomed, batting left or right, and I suspect he knows it.  I don't believe the propaganda I read that Rizzo left it up to him; I don't believe that this is his choice. Whoever turned him into a switch hitter as a child didn't do him any favor.  It meant he spent his entire youth never facing a same-side pitcher. Of course as a child, he hit everyone he faced because he was  far superior to them.  But what reason is there to believe that he can learn to do this at the major league level without having worked his way up facing same-side pitchers at a lower level?

You guys don't realise that the difference between the Danny we want to DFA and the Danny we want to let start is the difference between him hitting 22% of the time and 25% of the time.  He's an MLB starter on many inferior teams, and he's almost good enough to be a multi win player by WAR.  He just has to fine-tune the hole in his swing.

I'd like to see a fangraphs article on his swinging strikes.  Are they all in the same place?  Is there just a book on him?

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #17: February 09, 2015, 12:21:38 PM »
You guys don't realise that the difference between the Danny we want to DFA and the Danny we want to let start is the difference between him hitting 22% of the time and 25% of the time.  He's an MLB starter on many inferior teams, and he's almost good enough to be a multi win player by WAR.  He just has to fine-tune the hole in his swing.

I'd like to see a fangraphs article on his swinging strikes.  Are they all in the same place?  Is there just a book on him?
Maybe that can be Houston's first piece when Dave Cameron comes to his senses and hires him.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #18: February 09, 2015, 12:42:52 PM »
You guys don't realise that the difference between the Danny we want to DFA and the Danny we want to let start is the difference between him hitting 22% of the time and 25% of the time.  He's an MLB starter on many inferior teams, and he's almost good enough to be a multi win player by WAR.

There are quite a few problems here.

1. It's not between him hitting 22% or 25% of the time. In 2011 Danny hit .223/.314/.393 against RHP with a 9%/26% BB/K ratio. Last year he hit .183/.241/.291 against RHP with a 4%/39% BB/K ratio. This is not "lucky bounces". He's never been able to hit for average, but now he doesn't control the strike zone at all, and when he makes contact (seldom) he hits for very little power. When you cut your walks 60%, up your strikeouts 50%, and hit for 33% less power, that's not a few lucky bounces away from being playable.

2. He's not a starter on many inferior teams hitting .183/.241/.291 against RHP. As shown below, as a starter last year he'd likely have a wOBA of .265 or so, and that's lower than all but 2 players in the major leagues - Zach Cozart and Matt Dominguez, who both have far different hitting profiles. The only other player close to his hitting profile who's so low is BJ Upton, who is the biggest joke in the league. But really, no one would play him fulltime while he strikes out 40% of the time against RHP.

3. He's not a multi-win player in full-time play, or even close. He finished with 0.6 wins last year despite being platooned enough to have only a 1/2 ratio of at bats vs. LHP to at bats vs. RHP. If you weight his wOBA 1 to 4 like a normal everyday player might have, you get a weighted wOBA of .265 last year. By comparison, Andrelton Simmons who is the best defensive player in the majors, has a wOBA of .273 last year (HIGHER!) and was only worth 2.3 wins - which was basically his defensive value. So to say Danny is a multi-win player, you're basically saying he's a better than plus-2 win defender, which isn't true.

Offline whytev

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #19: February 09, 2015, 12:50:20 PM »
There are quite a few problems here.

1. It's not between him hitting 22% or 25% of the time. In 2011 Danny hit .223/.314/.393 against RHP with a 9%/26% BB/K ratio. Last year he hit .183/.241/.291 against RHP with a 4%/39% BB/K ratio. This is not "lucky bounces". He's never been able to hit for average, but now he doesn't control the strike zone at all, and when he makes contact (seldom) he hits for very little power. When you cut your walks 60%, up your strikeouts 50%, and hit for 33% less power, that's not a few lucky bounces away from being playable.

2. He's not a starter on many inferior teams hitting .183/.241/.291 against RHP. As shown below, as a starter last year he'd likely have a wOBA of .265 or so, and that's lower than all but 2 players in the major leagues - Zach Cozart and Matt Dominguez, who both have far different hitting profiles. The only other player close to his hitting profile who's so low is BJ Upton, who is the biggest joke in the league. But really, no one would play him fulltime while he strikes out 40% of the time against RHP.

3. He's not a multi-win player in full-time play, or even close. He finished with 0.6 wins last year despite being platooned enough to have only a 1/2 ratio of at bats vs. LHP to at bats vs. RHP. If you weight his wOBA 1 to 4 like a normal everyday player might have, you get a weighted wOBA of .265 last year. By comparison, Andrelton Simmons who is the best defensive player in the majors, has a wOBA of .273 last year (HIGHER!) and was only worth 2.3 wins - which was basically his defensive value. So to say Danny is a multi-win player, you're basically saying he's a better than plus-2 win defender, which isn't true.

I didn't bring up bounces.  And you cut out the part where I said he had a hole in his swing.  I know his faults.  This decision is either going to save his career, or he's going to end up riding the pine on the strength of his glove (Think Pedro Florimon Jr.) for the rest of his time in the majors.  If I were him I'd go to Japan after this year if it doesn't work.

Offline whytev

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #20: February 09, 2015, 12:55:19 PM »
Looked it up.  Espinosa had a 22% K rate vs. lefties and a 39% K rate vs. righties last year.  Is it the eye or the swing?  This is an entirely worthy experiment.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #21: February 09, 2015, 01:01:43 PM »
I didn't bring up bounces.  And you cut out the part where I said he had a hole in his swing.  I know his faults.  This decision is either going to save his career, or he's going to end up riding the pine on the strength of his glove (Think Pedro Florimon Jr.) for the rest of his time in the majors.  If I were him I'd go to Japan after this year if it doesn't work.

You said the difference was him hitting 22% or 25% of the time. That's not the difference. That ignores walks, strikeouts, and power. If Danny had increased his batting average against RHP by 30 points due to some lucky bounces last year, he'd still have slashed .271/.321 against RHP, struck out 40% of the time and been basically unplayable.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #22: February 09, 2015, 02:15:16 PM »
He just has to fine-tune the hole in his swing.

I understand he has hired a swing coach...


Offline whytev

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #23: February 09, 2015, 02:19:16 PM »
You said the difference was him hitting 22% or 25% of the time. That's not the difference. That ignores walks, strikeouts, and power. If Danny had increased his batting average against RHP by 30 points due to some lucky bounces last year, he'd still have slashed .271/.321 against RHP, struck out 40% of the time and been basically unplayable.

If he was able to maintain a batting average of .250, even with his terrible strikeout rate and his inability to walk, he's pretty much Desmond.

.250 hitters get a lot of grace.  .220 hitters don't.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Re: Danny Espinosa Same Old Same Old Watch 2014
« Reply #24: February 09, 2015, 02:19:54 PM »
I am inclined to agree that the chances of success are slim. Doesn't mean he should try it because what he's doing isn't working.  But as for hitting righthanders, I suspect he's doomed, batting left or right, and I suspect he knows it.  I don't believe the propaganda I read that Rizzo left it up to him; I don't believe that this is his choice. Whoever turned him into a switch hitter as a child didn't do him any favor.  It meant he spent his entire youth never facing a same-side pitcher. Of course as a child, he hit everyone he faced because he was  far superior to them.  But what reason is there to believe that he can learn to do this at the major league level without having worked his way up facing same-side pitchers at a lower level?

Shane Victorino did alright.