Author Topic: I, For One, Welcome Our New CF Overlord (The Robles Thread)  (Read 42708 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline varoadking

  • Posts: 29610
  • King of Goodness
I think he maybe a lost cause.

Kiebust & Roblost...

Sounds like a good name for a Rochester valet parking service...


Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63383
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Perfect example of calling up players too early

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26052
Perfect example of calling up players too early
Like Soto?

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63383
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Like Soto?
Like Kieboom. And Giolito.

Y'all need to understand how stupidly rare it is for sub 25 year old players to succeed in this game

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 40067
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Perfect example of calling up players too early
the thing I do not get is that 2019 Robles looked good.  Unbelievable defense, acceptable OBP, and some power. 

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16461
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
the thing I do not get is that 2019 Robles looked good.  Unbelievable defense, acceptable OBP, and some power. 

In 2019, Robles could not hit breaking balls. He hit only .250, although with about 17 homers. It has gotten worse. A year ago, Robles showed up heavier and more muscular. He had lost some speed without gaining power. Maybe he thinks he is faster than he really is. Maybe he has never adjusted to playing against the most athletic and most skilled players in baseball.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11557
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
Seeing Parra smash into the wall today gave me an appreciation for Robles’s glove.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63383
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
the thing I do not get is that 2019 Robles looked good.  Unbelievable defense, acceptable OBP, and some power. 
First half 2019 Robles did. Second half, not really

But this happens all the time to young hitters. There's no book on them and they rake. Then opposing pitchers get scouting reports and the young hitter struggles.

Look at Pete Alonso. Dude mashed 53 homers his rookie year. Hasnt done nearly as well since. Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres also come to mind.

I think the biggest problem is some how he got it in his head he needed to hit for power and now his swing is all jacked up. He was never projected to be a slugger.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 16260
  • pissy DC sports fan
Like Kieboom. And Giolito.

Y'all need to understand how stupidly rare it is for sub 25 year old players to succeed in this game

Not really.  22/23-ish is probably a better cutoff.  Not sure why you chose 25 as a cutoff, since Kieboom was 21 when he was first called up anyway.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63383
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Not really.  22/23-ish is probably a better cutoff.  Not sure why you chose 25 as a cutoff, since Kieboom was 21 when he was first called up anyway.
Because the Devers and Austin Riley's of the world are rare

Case in point, in 2019, there were 23 players 25 or under that were league average or better hitters, and 8 pitchers with an ERA under 4.

This is a skill driven game. It takes time to develop skill.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 16260
  • pissy DC sports fan
Okay, your original argument was about calling up players too early, which is different from whether or not it's easy to immediately succeed at a young age, so if you could figure out what point you're trying to make, that'd be great.

Offline Briggs

  • Posts: 127
It wasn't too long ago, that Victor Robles was touted s a legit 5 tool prospect and untouchable to any trades.  Sadly, today he looks more like a tool box!

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26052
It wasn't too long ago, that Victor Robles was touted s a legit 5 tool prospect and untouchable to any trades.  Sadly, today he looks more like a tool box!
An old rusted tool box.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26052
Okay, your original argument was about calling up players too early, which is different from whether or not it's easy to immediately succeed at a young age, so if you could figure out what point you're trying to make, that'd be great.
There’s also no real empirical evidence that high level prospects who stay in the minors longer fare better.  If he can’t hit major league pitching after four years it’s possible that he never will. 

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16461
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Robles is immature, and has seemed like a knuckleheaded kid since he came up. Without a hard "numeric" rule, some players seem ready when others don't.

How long can the Nats carry a good fielder who cannot hit? (I looked at Robles's stats. He is 1-for-10, meaning one hit in the last ten games)

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11557
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
Alcides Escobar started some games in CF in 2018. Just throwing it out there incase last night's Robles two double performance is a fluke.

Online nfotiu

  • Posts: 5046
I still think Robles will develop into a good player.   He'll learn from baserunning mistakes, his CF defense is almost elite, and he looks good in some games at the plate.  I think he'll get back to being a .250-.260 hitter who gets a lot of doubles.   I don't know if he'll ever develop into the base stealer he thinks he is, but he's very rangy in CF and good at turning singles into doubles.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16461
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Got a hit today, lifting his average to .212. OPS of .634 and about 11 RBIs.

Offline NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 14508
Got a hit today, lifting his average to .212. OPS of .634 and about 11 RBIs.
  trade him while his value is high.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 43178
  • Re-contending in 202...5?

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16461
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Like Kieboom. And Giolito.

Y'all need to understand how stupidly rare it is for sub 25 year old players to succeed in this game

Not so rare. I did a quick check of well-known Nats:

- Cecil Travis, 20: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/travice01.shtml

- Mickey Vernon, 23: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vernomi01.shtml

- Eddie Yost, 20: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yosted01.shtml

- Pete Runnels, 24: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/runnepe01.shtml

- Roy Sievers, 22: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sievero01.shtml

- Harmon Killebrew, 23: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/killeha01.shtml

- Bob Allison, 24: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allisbo01.shtml

- Camilo Pascual, 20. Became the Nats top pitcher at 23 and 24, but break through until he was 25. That was after Calvin Griffith gave him enough of a raise that he no longer had to play all winter in Cuba.


Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5752
Not so rare. I did a quick check of well-known Nats:

- Cecil Travis, 20: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/travice01.shtml

- Mickey Vernon, 23: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vernomi01.shtml

- Eddie Yost, 20: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yosted01.shtml

- Pete Runnels, 24: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/runnepe01.shtml

- Roy Sievers, 22: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sievero01.shtml

- Harmon Killebrew, 23: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/killeha01.shtml

- Bob Allison, 24: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allisbo01.shtml

- Camilo Pascual, 20. Became the Nats top pitcher at 23 and 24, but break through until he was 25. That was after Calvin Griffith gave him enough of a raise that he no longer had to play all winter in Cuba.

Dude, it's been over 40 years since any of those guys played in the league. Just saying if you are going to use examples, try a sample set from the last 15 years or so, you know, a modern sample.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16461
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
OK. I went through the late '90s Yankees. How old are you?

- Bernie: 22

- O'Neill: 24

- Jeter: 21

- Posada: 25, but it's tougher with catchers

- Tino: 22

- Petitite: 23

"You could look it up", said The Perfesser.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63383
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Cool. How many werent under 25?

Offline welch

  • Posts: 16461
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Just for curiosity, I looked up some the Nats to see how much minor league ball they had played. Everyone except, for Yost, played 2, 3, or 4 years in the minors, and Yost started playing for the Nats -- at 17 -- during WW2. The he went to war, and MLB took a few years to get reorganized. Remember the story everyone knows: Killer was signed to a bonus at 17, so he had to spend years 18 and 19 on the big league team. Then he went to the minors: 1956, '57, and made AAA in 1958. That season, a coach from the White Sox -- Nats and Chisox shared a team -- suggested that Killebrew get closer to the plate and cover everything. Harmon came back to the Senators in 1959 and hit 42 home runs.

Of the late 1990s Yankees, the best teams I have ever cheered for, I gave you the ages of the core players when they made it. Knobloch was 22. Brosius did not become a regular until he was 28. Chad Curtis came up at 23 as a regular. The DH (1998, just to pick a year) was Strawberry, who came up at 21. Tim Raines, the other DH, became a regular at 21. The rest were fill-ins, like Ricky Ledee and Shane Spencer, who never really became starters.

By the numbers, it seems typical for good players to come up and stick sometime between 21 and 24 years old.