Putting guys away with 2-strikes - Staff K% and slash lines

[JCA-CrystalCity]

this is a break out from the Gray thread where we got into a discussion of his ability to put guys away once he got to 2 strikes. As a team, this has been commented on as a weakness of the Nats this season

A perspective on his [Gray's] K rate, for what it is worth:

With a 2 strike count, Gray struck out 37.6% of opposing hitters (380 PAs, 143 Ks).
All MLB pitchers struck out 42.4% of opposing hitters with 2 strikes (95499 PAs, 40546 Ks).

If you think his approach was OK as long as he was getting weak contact, think again:

Gray in 2 strike counts - .217 / .303 / .347 (.650 OPS)
MLB, same counts - .173 / .250 /.274 (.524 OPS)

An ability to K guys even at league average when in 2 strike counts would help.

[nobleisthyname]

A perspective on his K rate, for what it is worth:

With a 2 strike count, Gray struck out 37.6% of opposing hitters (380 PAs, 143 Ks).
All MLB pitchers struck out 42.4% of opposing hitters with 2 strikes (95499 PAs, 40546 Ks).

If you think his approach was OK as long as he was getting weak contact, think again:

Gray in 2 strike counts - .217 / .303 / .347 (.650 OPS)
MLB, same counts - .173 / .250 /.274 (.524 OPS)

An ability to K guys even at league average when in 2 strike counts would help.

Putting guys away seems to be a common struggle with a lot of the Nats' pitchers.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Putting guys away seems to be a common struggle with a lot of the Nats' pitchers.

might be fun to pull the stat lines with  2 strikes on a few of them. I got this off the baseball-reference splits pages for Gray and for MLB pitchers.

Franny in particular got kind of amazed / frustrated at the fouls off of Gore's fastball.  One of the things that's fun about Harvey is he's capable of putting guys away.

[nobleisthyname]

2-Strike Count Slash Lines

Mackenzie Gore - .181 / .274 / .305 (.580 OPS)

Jake Irvin - .190 / .273 / .312 (.585 OPS)

Patrick Corbin - .190 / .252 / .292 (.543 OPS)

Trevor Williams - .228 / .291 / .429   (.720 OPS) 

[nobleisthyname]

And some relief pitchers:

Hunter Harvey - .146 / .181 / .223 (.404 OPS)

Kyle Finnegan - .175 / .245 / .248 (.493 OPS)

Mason Thompson - .238 / .314 / .295 (.609 OPS)

Jordan Weems - .095 / .177 / .143 (.319 OPS) 

Robert Garcia - .130 / .221 / .174 (.395 OPS)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Garcia looks like a find. Bullpens are volatile, but there seems to be 4 horses, including a lefty, to build around.

Corbin is interesting. He's still effective / deadly when he gets to 2 strikes. Not too surprised with Gore and Irvin.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

2-Strike Count Slash Lines

Mackenzie Gore - .181 / .274 / .305 (.580 OPS)  Ks 151/ 2 strike PAs 339 = 44.5% K% in 2 strike PAs

Jake Irvin - .190 / .273 / .312 (.585 OPS) Ks 99 / 278 2 strike PAs = 35.6 K% in 2-strike PAs

Patrick Corbin - .190 / .252 / .292 (.543 OPS) 124 Ks/ 343 2 strike PAs = 36.2 K% in 2-strike PAs

Trevor Williams - .228 / .291 / .429   (.720 OPS)  107 Ks / 320 2-strike PAs = 33.4K% in 2-strike PAs

And some relief pitchers:

Hunter Harvey - .146 / .181 / .223 (.404 OPS) 64 Ks/ 138 2 strike PAs = 46.4 K% in 2 strike PAs

Kyle Finnegan - .175 / .245 / .248 (.493 OPS) 61 Ks / 151 2-strike PAs = 40.4 K% in 2 strike PAs

Mason Thompson - .238 / .314 / .295 (.609 OPS) 44 Ks /118 2-strike PAs= 37.3 K% in 2-strike PAs

Jordan Weems - .095 / .177 / .143 (.319 OPS)  58 Ks / 119 2-strike PAs = 48.7 K% in 2-strike PAs

Robert Garcia - .130 / .221 / .174 (.395 OPS) 33 Ks / 77 2- strike PAs = 42.9 K% in 2 strike PAs

I've added K% for 2 strike counts for all pitchers.  Also, as noted above, Gray struck out 37.6% of opposing hitters in 2-strike PAs (380 PAs, 143 Ks).

FWIW, in 2 strike counts, the Nats staff as a whole struck out 37.8% of hitters (1197 out of 3163 PAs). 42.4% was the MLB rate calculated earlier in the week. So, about 10% below MLB average.

So, it looks like we have 3 relievers who put away hitters at average or above average rates when they get to 2 strikes -Harvey, Weems, and Garcia, and one who is near average - Finnegan. As for starters, only Gore fit that description this year. Of course, the big advantage of a K when you get to the point when you can get a K is that it is about the best outcome for preventing runs. Pop-ups are just about as nice. Contact is more likely to lead to runs.


I suppose another thing to look at is how this rate varies for relievers and starters, and what % of PAs get to 2 strikes.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not to get too lost in the sauce, but the slash line is most important. K% is important as it is the best way to suppress average/ OBP / SLG, but a guy like Corbin has been effective at getting good outcomes once he gets to 2 strikes, even though his K% is below average.

The other thing that pops out positively for the starters going forward is Irvin's // line.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

League slash line with 2-strikes = .172 / .249 / .274 (.523 OPS).  Gore is the only starter close to league average.

Really need to pull starters vs. relievers for MLB, but I can't see an easy way on B-R. I will assume relievers are a lot better than starters, so the Gore / Irvin/ Corbin lines are near average for starters.